sersabr.hl

@skewga_capital That chart reminds me of a certain shampoo..

Semiconductors $SMH down 3% today, chart looking terrible. Probably more downside to come...

It’s 3 hours since $BASED TGE. We have done something unprecedented in the space. We launch a token on not just Hyperliquid. Within an hour of launch, Based was live across (in alphabetical order): Binance Futures Bybit Spot + Futures Coinbase Hyperliquid Kraken OKX Spot + Futures We’ve shown that it is possible to launch on Hyperliquid while being listed across major CEXs globally. In the last few hours, we have done $160M+ in perp volume and ~$70M across spot and DEX. This places BASED among the more actively traded assets in crypto right now, especially in these market conditions. 23.5% of tokens were airdropped to the Based community without vesting. All airdrops happened on Hyperliquid, delivered directly to users’ wallets on HyperCore. No claim rush. No network congestion. A clean distribution. To date, 68M tokens are locked through the pre-TGE staking pool, representing ~30% of circulating supply. As a team, we gave ourselves a mandate to airdrop to the community in less than a year from launching our SuperApp on @HyperliquidX. Why? Because our users deserve it. There are people who gave us excuses like “wait for more favourable market conditions.” We didn’t want to keep people waiting. When it’s time to launch, it’s time to launch. I’ve taken a personal interest in token design, first as a DeFi maxi in 2021 and later as a trader (which led me to discover Hyperliquid in 2023). They say “founders should not trade and focus on building.” That’s probably true in the tech world, but in crypto, the token is the core product. The token rallies communities and incentivises stakeholders. TGE is the best time to design a system that aligns the people you need to build a successful crypto protocol. When it comes to airdrops, you have users who want to sell everything on day one, and people who want to hold and believe in the project. Others want to stay long-term through a pre-TGE staking pool. To date, 68M tokens have been locked, representing ~30% of the circulating supply. The next part of design is liquidity. Tokens should be liquid and tradable in many places. That’s why we chose to launch on both Hyperliquid and multiple exchanges at the same time. We’ve shown the world that it is possible to launch on Hyperliquid and also be listed on many CEXs globally. The journey is not complete. Now that distribution is done, we will focus on building Based into a full ecosystem — where projects launch, agents operate, and capital flows, all powered by one of crypto’s highest-value user bases: traders who trade big, spend big, and hold with conviction. For those hearing about $BASED for the first time, our litepaper is here: litepaper.based.one For those who have received the BASED airdrop and chose to hold, my team and I thank you. And for those who just bought BASED today, welcome to the @BasedOneX family. I am done playing not to lose. It's time to play to win. Stay Based.

@katexbt @MixemaCrypto @blockaid_ 8200 is elite. lol

@MixemaCrypto @blockaid_ tel aviv lol

UPDATE 🆕 : Some of you told me that @blockaid_ was the AML firm potentially responsible for this flag. So I contacted them with my address to find out if it really came from them, explaining the full situation. Many thanks to them for their responsiveness 🙏 I think the message speaks for itself, so I have no idea what is this “independent blockchain analytics provider” that @iliensinc mentioned for justifying my ban ... Here is their response :

@MixemaCrypto @HyperliquidX Did you ever onramp/ offramp from a non-KYC exchange? Those often get flagged from chainalysis. I think you can use something like debridge to get your funds transferred out to another wallet. Or use the api.

I just got banned from @HyperliquidX ?? 😭😭 My main wallet was suddenly flagged as “high risk” by a third-party screening tool, and I can no longer connect to the Hyperliquid frontend I genuinely do not understand this decision, especially because it is happening now. Over the past two months, I had actually been much less active than usual because I was busy with other things and had taken a partial break from trading. I have been trading on Hyperliquid organically for months, usually once or twice a week, and I have been a real supporter of the ecosystem from early on. I am not posting this to attack Hyperliquid, because I still believe the team has built something exceptional. What I do find concerning is how cases like this are handled. I reached out on Discord to understand what happened, and instead of being able to explain myself or get any clarity, I was timed out for a week. I honestly do not believe I did anything wrong. This wallet has been mine for more than 4 to 5 years, and I have never been flagged or reported for suspicious activity on any airdrop or any platform I have ever used. This was also my main address on Hyperliquid, the one where I did most of my activity, with around $750,000 in total volume since the beginning. I know that may be negligible compared with some bigger traders, but it was still my primary account and an important part of my activity on the platform. I will keep trading on Hyperliquid using secondary addresses, because I still support the product, but the lack of transparency and the inability to defend yourself when flagged is genuinely harmful for users. All I am asking for is clarity, a fair review process, and the ability to understand what supposedly triggered this. If anyone can help me, or share any useful information that could help me resolve this situation, I would be immensely grateful !

I agree demand destruction is a reality, but be careful not to overuse it as if it's some magic word. In 2016, the FED conducted excellent research on oil price elasticity. At the time, they estimated the elasticity of oil demand and supply using a SVAR model. Their analysis put the short-term global oil demand elasticity at around -0.1. This means that for every 10% increase in price, demand drops by a mere 1%, suggesting that the market as a whole is extremely inelastic. Low elasticity implies that even minor shifts in supply or demand require prices to either skyrocket or plummet to rebalance the market. This is the key to explaining the extreme vol of oil prices. You might bring up 2022 as an example, but back then, prices spiked while actual supply losses were negligible. However the physical supply loss is massive now. While the share of elastic demand is relatively higher in the petrochem sector, there are virtually no substitutes in industrial raw materials and road transport. To reach a supply-demand equilibrium solely through demand destruction, prices would have to hit the roof. The market will eventually find its equilibrium of course, but beware of the misguided claims that everything happens magically overnight. It’s not as if 10% of global demand vanishes in a single day and solves everything. Every process involves time and lagging. We have currently lost at least 10% of global supply. Since the short-term elasticity of oil demand is so low, prices will have to be incredibly high to force a reduction in demand in response to such a supply destruction. #oott #iran

@skewga_capital Oil up with usdcad and even usdnok up is like kek 😵

Interesting price action, Bond yields down while oil up 3%, maybe the market is starting to look through the inflationary shock? From my Substack post yesterday: "My read is that the Disinflation probability creeping up to 15% deserves watching. It has risen 5.7 points over four weeks, which tells me the market is starting to price some scenarios where growth slows enough to drag inflation down with it."

@skewga_capital Or frankly just EEM

@skewga_capital Better to use ADXY as a proxy. Asian dollar index.

DXY looking like it could go to 103 easily, dangerous for crypto.

@HangukQuant HLP gave birth to HYPE

@sersabr Yes “user operated vaults”, I think protocol vaults are a fantastic bootstrap

@CRUDEOIL231 Rates / macro community usually flip and can turn the ship around

It’s truly astounding how much of a delusion the rates desk folks are living in. I get it. Hope is a fine thing, and inertia is something that never fades easily. You guys were completely wrecked this quarter, and since you’ve been spouting nonsense like "nothing will happen," I understand your desperate scramble to hijack the next narrative. Yes, demand destruction is real. However that destruction is never linear. Supply and demand are never perfectly proportional to each other. It’s not as if one breaks and the other immediately recalibrates to settle into an equilibrium. They react by saying, "Rising oil prices? Won't that eventually dampen consumption and demand, leading to a recession?" and then they bet on falling rates or try to dump cyclicals. Consequently, on Friday some participants played out a scenario of pushing prices up, counting their chickens before they hatched by thinking, "High oil → economic burden → the Fed will get spooked and cut rates three times, right?" And those trapped in long duration have started blabbing with renewed hope. It’s a total comedy where reality and market expectations are completely out of sync. They aren't accounting for the lag at all. In contrast, the Fed will hold the line and won't cut rates until inflation is firmly under control and demand has completely broken. When the market starts getting too far ahead of itself, it creates a paradox that actually undermines the very conditions for a rate cut—yet they aren't even considering that. It’s pure cognitive dissonance. They compare this to 2022, but: 1) In 2022, the actual supply loss of crude was negligible, whereas now it exceeds 10mb/d; 2) Oil demand, in particular, has a very high share of inelastic demand; 3) Even if demand destruction follows, there is a lag of at least several months before finding an equilibrium. Please, wake up. It’s true that the fancy rhetoric of finance governing the real world has been very effective until now. However, this time, the aftershocks of the real world are transitioning into finance—do you still not see the difference? You will all regret this bitterly soon. You still don't realize how dangerous the idea is to skip over all the time-consuming processes just to front-run a distant future outcome. #oott $tlt

@mert @KyleSamani @arkham Which app is this?

@KyleSamani @arkham kyle do we need to have a talk

KYLE SAMANI JUST LEVERAGED $10M WITH DEFI Kyle Samani has loop-deposited a total of $10M worth of PRIME into Kamino Finance, and borrowed $8.6M USDC against it. He’s paying a total of 39.4% APY on the USDC stablecoins, but he’s getting 56.4% APY with PRIME. Kyle Samani is a Solana DeFi power user.

TradeXYZ. Long volatility and carry across all of finance.

@HangukQuant Because youve got that dawg in you. HLP was the exception.

@sersabr i prefer to be an alpha chad

the economic incentive for depositing into user-operated vaults are rather poor. by design, these vaults are (smart) beta plays with large capacity and run low sharpe asset-gatherer type strategies, such as HYPE beta neutral or trend following. to be clear, i think they are okay ~ good instruments for the general populace as a tokenized risk management service. but it is important to set reasonable expectations. vaults are aqr multi asset funds in the crypto world

@donnelly_brent Going to be a lost decade for dashboards

Welcome to the golden age of dashboards

@fiege_max never ask a man his salary a woman her age or a Bruce Jenner of perps their/them volume:OI multiple

never ask a man his salary a woman her age or a hyperliquid killer their volume:OI multiple

@shaundadevens @fiege_max Hyperliquid

24/7 Equity Perpetuals DAS NYC Keynote Hyperliquid TradeXYZ

@_stevenhl USDH needs a memecoin. One thats special. There would be no HYPE without PURR. USDH needs to PURR.

If I was Jeff, this would be my game plan to drive USDH adoption: 1) Deploy HIP-4 (remember, these are USDH denominated) 2) Launch validator operated crypto perps for USDH, e.g BTC-USDH 3) Announce incentives With these, I’m willing to bet the user base will migrate to USDH.

@0xMerp Yo @davidyjeong @tread_fi have this thing cooking gmTREAD

can somebody build a little terminal for polymarket so u can use it in the US without vpn