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rivers

@setpiec3

mostly baseball

Katılım Mart 2025
131 Takip Edilen253 Takipçiler
Dante
Dante@simplyjustdante·
@CJDJNR @lockedupjb Literally...I want jb to leave just bc he deserves better from a fanbase. This shi happens every single year no matter how he plays.🤦🏽‍♂️
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
I watched the whole slate video, some call outs were accurate while most were not. This isn’t to knock the data model, which highlights some important context and metrics that underly a ball leaving the park. But pointing to a sole metric as the reason for the home run while others have better grades in the same metric disproves the metric as the reason for the home run. So just using zone fit as the one variable of why the ball left the park just doesn’t make sense. If zone fit also mattered that much then it should have improved Gelof’s overall matchup rating which was incredibly poor and would suggest to fade him. My only point is to figure out where these gradings actually correlate to a ball leaving the park and not to create false causation which will lead people overvaluing the wrong metric
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ProjectionBetting 🔼
ProjectionBetting 🔼@Projection_Bets·
No doubt, valid call out. Ive spent considerable time om @KasperMLB site looking at the data. There are multiple approaches that can be applied - for example, I personally value pull barrel and launch angle higher than most other stats. With zone fit in mind Some people play simply off zone fit, which has produced quite a few longshot HRs lately. All in all, its incredible data that is obviously helping a ton of people , hence the timeline. Its all in the user's hands on how they want to use it. If I had a suggestion for people: watch his slate breakdowns and take notes. Come up woth your own strategies based on that. 🤙
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
This is cherry picking data. In the Blue Jays vs Twins slate Lee, Bell, and Wallner all had higher grading in the zone fit metric but none homered. So what’s the correlation between a homer and zone fit? Conversely, Okamoto had awful zone fit but went yard
rivers tweet mediarivers tweet media
ProjectionBetting 🔼@Projection_Bets

@KasperMLB zone fit dawg 👀

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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Dude is streaming a day after losing a game 7 lol
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
@BaseUnstitched May be true before ABS but Heim should have been allowed to challenge the pitch
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Holy shit it was in my face the whole time
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rivers@setpiec3·
People love to retroactively go back to data and say “it was right there”. If it was so easy to parse that data for a lotto then you could do it before it happens, not make the connection after the fact
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
People get so excited to outsource their thinking to models that they won’t even be critical in any analysis of the data. People just want an easy way to “get rich” hate to break it you but it’s not happening. No model is revealing you a retirement lotto that you didn’t retroactively go back to and then see the pattern
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
But to really test the validity of the metric, we should measure how many people homered today who had a poor rating in that metric
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
If the reason for the home run was the high grading on that specific metric then you would expect the person who was graded highest on that metric would homer, not the 3rd highest
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
It’s also doesn’t make sense to cherry pick a metric like “zone fit” for example and attribute a home run to that specific metric when other players who outperform in that specific metric didn’t homer
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Everyone wants to be the person to predict which day Ernie Clement or Steven Kwan is going to homer
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
The first two months of MLB 2026 convinced me that the only way of betting home runs is to just to devig to sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa) even using FanDuel to pit against other books, and just run +EV in good matchups. Anything else is just noise that actually is going to diminish your ability to get +ROI
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Lmao
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Not even a sweaty donation, just straight ass
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
$25 donation to the books
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rivers
rivers@setpiec3·
Mfs watching hour long videos now to cash absolutely nothing, this space gets more and more retarded by the day
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