@damnang2 Well written. I’ve enjoyed consuming your content. Keep it up.
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Super Future Proof
80 posts
Super Future Proof
@sfproof
Former sell-side analyst; ex-partner at a $20B multi-strat hedge fund.
Katılım Aralık 2010
255 Takip Edilen507 Takipçiler
@jasonschips Translation: zero current-quarter validation with bull case is now entirely forward-looking TAM talk and future margins with no timeline. $SIVE to the moon.
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I nailed $SIVE earnings
They did, in fact, announce that their "opportunity pipeline" expanded again, while being simultaneously missing on revenues.
(Opportunity pipeline is a terrible metric and is NOT backlog. It's closer to a mini-TAM than a backlog.)
Jason's Chips@jasonschips
Maybe for them to announce that their "opportunity pipeline" expanded again while simultaneously missing on revenues. $SIVE
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SaaS is alive.
$NOW +23% since my post last week.
AI is not replacing these names:
- $PLTR
- $MSFT
- $NOW
- $SHOP
- $DDOG
- $CRM
- $SNOW
- $APP
- $MDB
- $ZETA - @amitisinvesting Basis Points pod w/ CEO convinced me of this. (No position)
Many of these companies are so entrenched in massive enterprises that the switching costs/risks are way too high.
No credible CTO will risk offboarding a $NOW for a stitched together "AI" replacement.
I believe that the more that SaaS companies utilise AI themselves, the greater their margin expansion will be:
- Cost savings by reducing employee headcount bloat.
- Revenue increases by integrating AI into their solutions e.g. Zeta/ServiceNow.
Disclosure: I took positions in ServiceNow 22 mins after my original tweet lol. Plan is to build out on dips for a long term compounding position (hopefully).
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
If it's not related to AI, the markets don't seem to care? This $NOW sell-off seems way too aggressive. They've got 600+ customers with an ACV over $5M lol (grew 22% YoY). You don't sign multi-year deals that big if the platform is getting disrupted by AI? Not sure what needs to happen for them to get re-rated. Maybe rebrand to NowAI? I don't have a position, but they're on the watchlist. Financials + guidance are too good to ignore.
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@asianinvestors Stock move from low 80s to low 60s intraday tells you everything you need to know.
Super Future Proof@sfproof
$SIVE earnings were a miss. Net sales fell 22% to SEK 61.9m, adjusted EBITDA was −13.8m and loss widened from −6.0m. That’s why the stock is down. Management blamed the US government shutdown, defense budget delays, and FX, and leaned on a 77% pipeline jump to $799M with 2027 ramps “on track.” Translation: zero current-quarter validation. The bull case is now entirely forward-looking TAM talk and future margins with no timeline.
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$SIVE earnings call
Across the 800M (77%) pipeline growth, this is the process.
And the next screenshot shows how many are in each current stage. Growth is accelerating
So it is not guaranteed revenue or order backlog. Important distinction here
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@aleabitoreddit You may be right long term but the tape is telling a very different story especially w MSCI inclusion after the close.
Super Future Proof@sfproof
$SIVE earnings were a miss. Net sales fell 22% to SEK 61.9m, adjusted EBITDA was −13.8m and loss widened from −6.0m. That’s why the stock is down. Management blamed the US government shutdown, defense budget delays, and FX, and leaned on a 77% pipeline jump to $799M with 2027 ramps “on track.” Translation: zero current-quarter validation. The bull case is now entirely forward-looking TAM talk and future margins with no timeline.
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Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far.
From earnings transcripts:
“We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought)
Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly high)
“We have two technologies that can feed into these three supercycles that are currently going on.” (Holy revenue opportunities)
My high conviction CPO/photonics long is $SIVE for a reason.
Garrison Simon@GARRlS0N
Sivers' CEO on the call, "We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply." $SIVE
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Why the $SIVE Transcript is Extremely Bullish
“We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply.”
Sivers is operating in a textbook seller’s market. When demand exponentially exceeds supply, traditional competitive risks disappear. Sivers does not need to cut prices or spend heavily on marketing to steal market share from rivals. Instead, Tier-1 tech customers are actively waiting in line to buy their components. This gives Sivers massive pricing power, allowing them to command top dollar for their chips.
„We see 60% gross margins in the future.”
In the hardware and semiconductor industry, a 60% gross margin is spectacular, it aligns Sivers with elite tech giants rather than low-margin commodity manufacturers. Gross margin measures how much money is left after direct manufacturing costs. Reaching 60% proves two things: First, their manufacturing processes will become highly efficient as they scale. Second, and more importantly, they possess a strong intellectual property (IP) moat. Customers are willing to pay a massive premium because Sivers’ proprietary photonics and wireless tech cannot be easily copied.
„Two technologies that can feed into these three supercycles...”
A "supercycle" is a structural, long-term economic trend that creates sustained demand for a decade or more, making Sivers resilient to short-term recessions. Sivers is perfectly positioned because their two core business units (Photonics and Wireless) feed directly into the three biggest tech revolutions of our time:
AI & Next-Gen Datacenters (CPO): Artificial Intelligence requires massive data speeds. Traditional copper cables are too slow and overheat. Sivers’ Photonics (lasers) enable Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), allowing data to move via light, solving the biggest bottleneck in AI infrastructure.
SATCOM & 5G/6G Expansion: The rollout of low-earth-orbit satellite constellations (like Amazon Kuiper) and advanced telecom networks relies heavily on Sivers' millimetre-wave Wireless chips.
Automotive & Defense: Advanced sensors like LiDAR for autonomous driving and secure military communications provide a third massive revenue vertical.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly high) “We have two technologies that can feed into these three supercycles that are currently going on.” (Holy revenue opportunities) My high conviction CPO/photonics long is $SIVE for a reason.
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$SIVE earnings were a miss. Net sales fell 22% to SEK 61.9m, adjusted EBITDA was −13.8m and loss widened from −6.0m. That’s why the stock is down. Management blamed the US government shutdown, defense budget delays, and FX, and leaned on a 77% pipeline jump to $799M with 2027 ramps “on track.” Translation: zero current-quarter validation. The bull case is now entirely forward-looking TAM talk and future margins with no timeline.
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$SIVE down a further 11%+ today, highlights the importance of risk management and portfolio diversification.
Even those with the highest conviction would struggle to hold such a pull back if they had bought the top and gone with a large percentage of their portfolio.
> For highly speculative stocks, with venture capital like risk / reward I would always recommend to size with a significantly lower percentage of your portfolio
> Do your own due diligence and do not buy out of FOMO
> Spread your buys over time to allow yourself to think about the thesis
> Strawman your thesis - what does the bear case look like? What if you are wrong?
If helpful I can share a list of nice safe picks that should deliver market beating returns but not multibaggers? Think 30-50%+ in a year rather than 2-10x
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204
$SIVE, now down a further 16% since I called the exact top. I have not bought back, I am expecting them to dilute to fund growth. Would be a heavy buyer following either dilution or a very good earnings report. The bull case is extraordinary though - this could very well pump on a bad earnings report.
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@StormDirac Saw that this am. Tough ask of seasoned execs who have been burned by previous semi cycles to support 20x.
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This is interesting information from Rosenblatt industry update on Indium Phosphide Supply and Demand. They estimate 12x supply increse 2025-2030. NVIDIA have asked for 20x supply increse over the same period.
Milk Road AI@MilkRoadAI
We called Nebius, Credo, Bloom Energy, AAOI, and AMD before their big run ups. Don’t miss the next one, come join us for just a $1. milkroad.com/pro/?utm_mediu…
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Here is the bear case on $CPSH
> you’re paying ~7x sales for a sub-scale specialty materials shop with SINGLE-DIGIT gross margins, a Q1 loss, and customer concentration risk.
> Dilution —> 24% share count growth in the last year, now another 8% on top via the RD.
> Once the offering closes today, the supply hits. Short borrow availability improves. Momentum unwinds.
> I can’t see a catalyst that justifies a multi-bagger move. The $15.5M contract was disclosed in October. CFO transition is neutral. Earnings were a miss.
> And her is the big one (as a former sell-side analyst) Roth is both the placement agent and the sell-side analyst with a $5.50 PT. They are telling you what they think it’s worth… $5.50. They have every economic incentive to be a cheerleader but they aren’t.
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Looks like we agree on the similarities between $CPSH and $SIVE when it was just starting to break out...
Completely different businesses, but both are phenomenal chokepoint plays.
Back when $SIVE was sitting at ~8 SEK, most people saw it as just another small-cap photonics name.
Little did they know, it was hugely undervalued as a supplier sitting at a genuine bottleneck in the optical interconnect space... exactly the layer AI needed as data movement became the constraint.
The market eventually caught on and it proceeded to ~10x.
$CPSH feels like it's at that same pre-recognition stage, sitting at the same valuation as $SIVE before it took off.
> $SIVE: photonics/optical interconnects for AI datacenters
> $CPSH: AlSiC thermal management for defense, space, and potentially AI chips
Both are critical suppliers that get overlooked until market demand forces the re-rating.
And remember, $CPSH is the only meaningful US-based vertically integrated AlSiC supplier, with sole-source status on many applications per their own 10-K...
When the market starts to recognize this as a true bottleneck, it'll re-rate hard and fast.
$SIVE already showed how that plays out.
Grok@grok
**Verified.** The TradingView charts do look remarkably similar: both show extended multi-year sideways consolidations/base-building, followed by a sharp vertical breakout candle on strong volume that clears long-term resistance (SIVE around March at ~9-10 SEK; CPSH today around $10-11). $SIVE (Sivers Semiconductors) specializes in high-power laser chips for AI data center optical interconnects — a clear tech chokepoint. $CPSH (CPS Technologies) makes specialized metal-matrix composites for thermal/power management in electrification (EVs, renewables) — a supply-chain chokepoint. The technical analogy and thematic parallel both check out.
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@aleabitoreddit It’s smart risk management to trade around positions like $SIVE. Was obviously overextended in the mid 80s heading into earnings.
Super Future Proof@sfproof
@AlmaCap114204 I expect it to trade low $60s post earnings unless $SIVE fundamentally reframes earnings pipeline
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$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.
Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.
I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.
And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.
I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.
As in the part few months we’ve discovered:
> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in
> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up
> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)
> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE
> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes
> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE
> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)
> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices
> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.
> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.
> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium
> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers
> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source
> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)
> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report
> Nasdaq listing expected soon
> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers
> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area
> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.
> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.
All of this market research was done before earnings.
Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.
I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.
Only thing I’m looking at are:
> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments
> volume ramp expectations from existing companies
> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts
> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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@Stocktology_ @vladtenev I’ll check them out. Most of my trading is via MCP / $IBKR API in part bc the UI/UX is so atrocious.
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I trade mostly US stocks. What I was getting at is the fact that they offer their services in 15 countries and still expanding, Robinhood has lacked severely on that front. In terms of access for international markets for users on both within the US they offer relatively the same securities.
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Quick update on agents:
Agentic Trading is still rolling out. If you see an error, access is coming soon.
Agentic Credit Cards are live for everyone now.
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@Stocktology_ @vladtenev Is that what you trade on for foreign markets?
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@sfproof @vladtenev $HOOD will never win globally. The US roots are too thick. $BULL will win imo long term because much like Bitcoin it has no country allegiance once it severed all ties from China in 2019.
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@techbrewmb @MorningBrew $72B in AI capex, $50B+ torched on the metaverse, and the grand monetization unlock is… $3.99 for a super heart reaction. Serious investors aren’t going to reward $META for earnings driven off RIFs and subscriptions.
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Meta's officially rolling out paid subscription plans across its platforms
Price per month:
• Facebook Plus - $3.99
• Instagram Plus - $3.99
• WhatsApp Plus - $2.99
Users will get extra features like extended Stories, special reaction animations, custom ringtones, & more
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@michael_rigoni How do you know it’s “very good” for $SIVE? Relative to what? Has management guided on Ayer Lab revenue?
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@SIVE_and_chill @vladtenev A TON … that would do more to lock in customers than anything I could think of + people would prob buy $HOOD
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@sfproof @vladtenev I moved $200k off RH since they don’t support international. They’re missing a ton of co-packaged optic names.
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Super Future Proof retweetledi
Ayar Labs and Wiwynn are partnering to bring CPO to rack-scale AI systems that support next-generation hyperscale AI workloads.
By combining Ayar Labs’ CPO solution with Wiwynn’s rack-level system design and manufacturing capabilities, the two companies are enabling a new class of rack-scale AI infrastructure.
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@_FinalFortune @vladtenev How are we supposed to trade the AI supply chain in Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Sweden if we don’t have access to those markets?!
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@sfproof @vladtenev “Best I can do is a AI chatbot for your brokerage account”
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@AlmaCap114204 I expect it to trade low $60s post earnings unless $SIVE fundamentally reframes earnings pipeline
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$SIVE, now down a further 16% since I called the exact top.
I have not bought back, I am expecting them to dilute to fund growth. Would be a heavy buyer following either dilution or a very good earnings report.
The bull case is extraordinary though - this could very well pump on a bad earnings report.
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204
$SIVE down 11% since I called to trim and rotate to IQE yesterday (up massively today). Could go lower but I’m rotating back a bit today to rebalance my portfolio. Other picks are all also up massively $MDA (did an article on them), $FLY and $ASTS Ps. I expected a pullback on SIVE albeit not this fast, always good to take advantage of the volatility.
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