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@orrdavid Its approx. 1$/barrel and will be the "reparations" they receive for the deal. US doesn't pay much of it either so its a $ tax on the ROW oil

I keep seeing posts about Iran charing a Hormuz toll long term. It just doesn't make sense. Countries don't get to randomly charge tolls like that. And Iran won't be able to just because they are losing in a war, and have no other options. It can only work short term.

@Merridew__ the fact they have MAD but hasn't played it (2019 Saudi Abqaiq attack at scale) means the deal was closer than it looked since the start

@dampedspring Compensation is a broad term that could be spun any way so US isn’t firmly no. And on Iran’s side, they just have to sign today to agree on paper (missiles and nuclear infra already destroyed) even if they renege in future (prob won’t). So the deal isn’t as far off as it sounds

The U.S. position hasn't changed. The trick isn't figuring out the U.S. and Israeli position it's whether a durable deal that completely emasculates Iran will be agreed to by Iran.

@websterkaroon Some kind of deal on the oil floating at sea

I just don't understand what the gift business is

@yieldsearcher @lisp4fun If the war goes well and Iran becomes neutral, China finishes the one belt one road which is their biggest dream. They’re sidelining for a reason.

@lisp4fun He meant if the war does not go well, it is good for China.

I had one of my Chinese followers commenting to me the other day, saying something to the tune of: “I can see how the current war situation can end up benefiting either the US or China, but either way, Europe is f’ed.”

@orrdavid Long UAE, long BRI. Once iran is defanged which is done, signs a paper acknowledging it as just asked by Trump. A super unified gulf bloc will emerge and the BRI can be completed. 90 million Iranians unsanctioned and online in the global economy.

The disconnect I'm seeing between observers and the facts is extremely wide. My opinion is that the facts of this war are coming out mind bogglingly well. And yet, I'm still seeing people post about how thE USA is losing, or is trapped, etc. That should mean opportunity...

Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks? Something obvious, not convoluted. Also, anything with options?

Fair, but with China, Pakistan, Japan, India + South Korea (pending) already receiving green light from Iran to transit Hormuz. Thats 80%+ of crude oil exports greenlit to transit (likely via an Iranian tollbooth). The 6 week+ case is looking non-existent. And side note, a selective closure doesn't exist without the US implicit permission because the US can always close the Iranian side if they wanted to. In a real all out war, the strait is either fully open or fully closed. i.e. tollbooth = reparations

@sgdfinance No, I'm specifically not doing that. Mostly looking at duration and if this continues through mid-April, or 6 weeks, then the higher energy costs have flowed through the economy to the customer.