Shane

STRC wins when the goal is income over growth. Obviously 20-30% CAGR beats 11.5%, but there’s no income or cash flow on the 20-30%. This is why we’re structuring lending solutions around both. Borrow against the ₿ at ~10%, 50% LTV, and deploy the funds into STRC earning 11.5%. On top of your underlying CAGR for Bitcoin, you’re also benefiting from a 1.5% positive net carry, meaning if ₿ averages 20% CAGR for a decade, yours is actually 22%, while collecting dividend payments every month via STRC. We’ll eliminate the monthly interest payments entirely, and use downside protection to strip away forced liquidation risk. TLDR; income on your Bitcoin without trading, re-lending, or exposing it to other high risk scenarios.

@Anton__BTC @grok what are the odds you give this to succeed? State your reasons in plain English.

Summer/fall of 2026 will be beautiful. BIP 110 activation will coincide with the second part of the bear market, the most vicious part of a bear market. I can't wait to see these ↓ hash bitches turning off their hashers.

@martypartymusic @grok what would ETH’s P/E ratio be if measured like an ordinary tech stock?

Time for Ethereum holders to take a long look in the mirror and reevaluate their decisions.

Can you settle an ongoing debate for me? A 50.01% node count for Knots, by itself, does not really force miners to point hashpower toward BIP 110 nodes, correct? Or said differently, node adoption only becomes meaningful if that adoption includes the economically relevant nodes and infrastructure; exchanges, custodians, payment processors, OTC desks, merchants, ETFs, and other major market participants. Ultimately, miners follow economic incentives. So unless the portions of the ecosystem that determine liquidity, pricing, settlement, and market recognition adopt the ruleset, raw node count alone would not appear sufficient to compel meaningful miner migration or hashpower realignment.

Run the latest version of Bitcoin Knots with RDTS/BIP-110 enabled because I support Bitcoin as a pure monetary network and oppose blockchain spam data abuse. By adding consensusrules=rdts to bitcoin.conf, you can help enforce a cleaner block policy。bitcoinknots.org

@TFTC21 @LukeGromen Luke back to talking debt doom loops and fiscal dominance, must've reloaded his BTC bags! Welcome back Luke, we missed you buddy 🤜🤛

"This year we're set to spend almost 5 trillion in interest and entitlements alone, which is nearly all of receipts." - @LukeGromen Even a 20% cut to defense and entitlements would trigger a recession that blows the deficit back to 9-13%. "Thank you for playing. Game over."

When I look at Warsh's prior comments and position on taking blunt force measures to stabilize markets, I have also wondered if he tries to use some flavor of YCC to justify such tactics, for reasons you've cited. Then I sprinkle in Bessent's goals of running things hot with Trump's desire to compete politically during Midterms, and "YCC not YCC" makes a lot of sense. Grok, Claude, ChatGPT, and most of the pundits here tend to disagree, but that kind of broader consensus may also be the signal.

@shane3628 IF they do nothing, housing prices will crash and stock P/E will consolidate, trillions evaporate. So IMO they will do some type of yield curve control, who knows what name they give it or if they even admit to doing it at all. FEDs balance sheet will expand.

Keep your eye on UST 10yr yield ⚠️ That will trigger FED action FED action will trigger bull incentive Bull incentive triggers save -> invest Save -> invest moves trillions Trillions move from MMF to assets Bitcoin will be repriced. It's not a halving BUT funny enough We've been waiting 4 years (2022) Cycles going to cycle! Prepare accordingly. $BTC $MSTR $ASST

SoV is the use case that gives ₿ value. Trying to suggest there are benefits as MoE without including SoV, means talking about a slow inconvenient experience, with an unstable currency, or highlighting an L2 like Lightning which contradicts your point to begin with. Which is your favorite of the several referenced?

@shane3628 Google it. Several.

Blame the SOV-only camp for Bitcoins slower growth. They won. And successfully halted development of a startup ecosystem around Bitcoin in favor of wall street securities. Now merchant adoption is stalled. The SOV camps ideas was that we can initially solely focus on SOV to get rich first and then think about usage. Ironically the same haste to get rich might be its own enemy.

@LygosFinance Exactly, so work with the one who pioneered the game and has been doing it right for a decade 😎

Does your centralized lender tell you to keep your loan at 33 LTV? Congratulations. You now have 3x the amount of bitcoin in their bankruptcy estate. 55% of centralized lenders go bankrupt. It’s just a matter of time.

@dirtcheapbanks What is the connective tissue between cuts and inflation at this point?

The 10Y just printed 4.67%, a 16-month high, and the market is finally admitting what every honest observer has been saying for two years: there are no cuts coming, there may be hikes, and the pivot crowd has been wrong for 18 straight months and will be wrong for the next 18. They keep pricing in a fairy tale in which a government running 7% deficits, monetizing its own debt through a central bank pretending to be independent, can engineer a soft landing without a single dollar of pain. That is not how monetary physics works. That has never been how monetary physics works. Long duration is a graveyard, and the regional banks that loaded up on long-dated Treasuries in 2021 at 1.5% yields are sitting on hundreds of billions of unrealized losses they have been allowed to hide in "held-to-maturity" buckets through accounting magic that pretends a bond worth 70 cents is somehow still worth a dollar. Silicon Valley Bank was not an isolated event. Silicon Valley Bank was the canary, and the mine is still on fire. The Fed cannot cut without reigniting inflation. The Fed cannot hold without breaking more banks. The Fed cannot hike without blowing up the Treasury market and triggering the next round of regional bank failures. There is no policy path that does not end in either a currency event or a banking event, and probably both, because the system has been engineered, over 40 years of progressively looser monetary policy, into a corner from which the only exits are catastrophic. Gold is repricing in front of you, every day, telling you exactly what is coming, while the financial press insists the dollar is sound and the Fed is in control. It is not. They are not. The duration trade is not a buying opportunity. It is the exit liquidity for the people who already understand what is happening, and the only question that matters is which side of the trade you are on when the loop finally breaks.

@martypartymusic Ironic this question is framed as Viable Currency (VC), because the answer is also VC, plus words like scam, pump n dump, exit liquidity, etc.

If a cryptocurrency is not a viable currency in 2026 what the f is it?

Deeply disturbing day in US politics

@Anton__BTC Yet in the White Paper, Satoshi literally said IP count doesn’t matter. Might want to look into that since it’s the basis of your entire mission.

Just a reminder... Miners don't control Bitcoin network. Nodes control Bitcoin network by enforcing consensus rules, including BIP 110 consensus rules. Every Bitcoin node matters. Stop counting BIP 110 blocks. It's silly. bitcoinknots.org

@TXMCtrades Musk: “Government is way too bloated, wasteful, and inefficient, needs DOGE” Also Musk: “AI will be so successful, the government will implement massive UBI program and pay everyone six figures to stay home.” 🥴

Everything is gonna be free bro

Dave Ramsey has a large following, and math is hard, so most people don’t understand this. I try to show the opportunity cost, ie, by paying down a $300k mortgage with extra cash over a decade, what didn’t you do with that $300k? You didn’t average 12% CAGR from SPY, or 14% from Gold, and certainly not 40% from ₿.

Paying off a mortgage early feels responsible, which is why the argument is so sticky. You look at the payment, imagine it disappearing, and call that peace of mind. I get the appeal. Nobody likes owing money, and a paid-off house sounds like the cleanest possible version of adulting. But a fixed-rate mortgage is strange debt. Your payment is locked in for decades while dollars keep getting cheaper, your income and assets may rise, and the real burden of that loan slowly gets lighter. The bank gave you long-term leverage on an asset you were probably going to buy anyway, and the terms cannot be yanked away because markets had a bad Tuesday. The expensive part is what you give up. Extra principal payments earn whatever your mortgage rate is. That may be fine in isolation, but FIRE is about building a liquid asset base that can fund your life, cover bad years, and keep compounding while you still have choices. A paid-off house can lower a bill, but it cannot buy groceries unless you borrow against it or sell it. Bitcoin, stocks, and cash can be sold in pieces. That flexibility is security too.

@Leishman I spend a lot of time educating HNWI and Business Owners why our Fireblocks MPC environment managed by our team and our tech is a safer bet than just handing it off to a QC. 3/10 get it, most don’t, unfortunately. I love what River is doing, kudos on your continued success.

@shane3628 Some people (who I will not name) publicly criticized us for refusing to trust third party "qualified custodians" like Prime Trust with our clients' bitcoin 🤡

The Prime Trust estate is attempting to claw back an existential amount of money from multiple Bitcoin exchanges who built on them. You should be sure to self custody your coins, or at a minimum keep them with a custodian who built their own custody and has proof of reserves.

Not shitting, trying understand how it’s so valuable with what appears to be a very niche use case, limited adoption, and very tough competition. The response I tend to get is based on what it’s going to do, not what it actually does, so I’m still looking for someone to bridge the gap for me.

@shane3628 @JoeConsorti Oh so you don’t want to actually learn about XRP, you just want to try to shit on it. I see. Idk man, look at all the documentation from SWIFT, DTCC, BUS, IMF, SBI, the fuccin federal reserve. it’s literally everywhere and easily verifiable, unless you just don’t want to see it.

XRP is a scam.

Yes but LINK owns their space and has thousands of customers. SOL dominates in many categories. UNI owns the DEX market, even though you’re saying it’s a big XRP use case. And AAVE processes far more transaction volume annually than XRP. Despite all of that, XRP has significantly greater market cap than all of them, in some cases exponentially greater. That makes no sense based on performance or adoption, leaving me to believe it’s due to having so much more adoption from “investors” holding XRP like a security instead of it being used like a utility. Feel free to point me to verifiable data sources if this is wrong.

@shane3628 @JoeConsorti Link is an oracle used for data. SOL is used mostly for tokenization (and minting meme rug coins) but it’s not as safe or reliable as XRPL as it has been hacked AND the network has been down several times with transactions not going through. I thought you were educated…

So let’s say it has a niche use case, how does that justify the current market cap being many multiples larger than others with exponentially more adoption and overall usage? SOL, LINK, AAVE, UNI, these are heavyweights within their category, yet most pale in comparison to XRP market cap. How do you explain that?

@shane3628 @JoeConsorti It has a DEX, that is a use case. But it also has a PERMISSIONED DEX. A whole other use case.