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xeno
2.1K posts
xeno
@shorttimelines
doomer accelerationist
Australia Katılım Kasım 2015
1.5K Takip Edilen849 Takipçiler
“Where does unhappiness come from? How is the infinite misery of our lives possible? Why do we feel pain, why do we suffer illness, why have we been given the pains of jealousy and unrequited love? Why are we wounded by the people around us? Who approved cancer, who released schizophrenia into the world? Why do amputations exist, who allowed torture machines to come into our minds? Why do people extract teeth to extract confessions? Why are bones crushed in traffic accidents? Why do airplanes crash, why do hundreds of people fall, for long minutes, knowing with absolute certainty that they will burn, they will explode, they will be torn apart and crushed? Why do people die of hunger, why are they buried under collapsing walls? Who can tolerate blindness, how can you reconcile yourself to suicide, how can you live alongside radical amputees and the incurably ill? Who can endure the screams of women in childbirth? There are millions of diseases of the human body, parasites that devour it from inside and outside, suppurating diseases of the skin, intestinal occlusions, lupus, tetanus, leprosy, cholera, plague. Why should we passively put up with them, why should we pass by, pretending not to see them, until we are impacted, as we certainly will be? Our minds will suffer, so will our flesh, our skin, our joints. Sores and pus will cover us, phlegm and sweat will drown us, injustice and tyranny will make us bow down, annihilation and impermanence terrify us.
Why do I know I exist if I also know I will not? Why was I given access to logical space and the mathematical structure of the world? Just to lose them when my body is destroyed? Why do I wake up in the night with the thought that I will die, why do I sit up, drenched in sweat, and scream and slap myself and try to suppress the thought that I will disappear for all eternity, that I will never be again, to the end of time? Why will the world end with me? We age: we stand quietly in line with those condemned to death. We are executed one after the other in a sinister extermination camp. We are first stripped of our beauty, youth, and hope. We are next wrapped in the penitential robe of illness, weariness, and decay. Our grandparents die, our parents are executed in front of us, and suddenly time gets short, you suddenly see your reflection in the axeblade. And only then do you realize you are living in a slaughterhouse, that generations are butchered and swallowed by the earth, that billions are pushed down the throat of hell, that no one, absolutely no one escapes. That not one person that you see coming out of the factory gates in a Méliès film is still alive. That absolutely everyone in an eighty-year-old sepia photograph is dead. That we all come into this world from a frightening abyss without our memories, that we suffer unimaginably on a speck of dust, and that we then perish, all in a nanosecond, as though we had never lived, as though we had never been.”
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Seems like LLMs are now good at frontier math disproofs. I wonder how big a jump it is to proofs. And then to constructive proofs.
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I still believe that everyone is too fixated on the state of play in AI right now (which companies in which countries are winning, how to manage costs, etc.) and not focused enough on the continued steepness of the capability curve for AI
At high capabilities, a lot changes fast
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@synthwavedd Not to mention that they are still going to take a way the 50% bonus weekly usage on the 19th, so your Fable quota will be lower than it is now
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Well looks like they settled into a middle ground while I was sleeping. Makes sense I suppose - the most intensive Fable users will be the most likely to complain that Opus 5 isn't a sufficient replacement for Fable, so it keeps them happy while lower tiers get Opus with much more workable limits
But it's another decision that I think underlines just how reactive and clumsy Anthropic have been recently
Claude@claudeai
Beginning July 20, Claude Fable 5 will be included in all Max and Team Premium plans, at 50% of limits. Pro and Team Standard users will continue to have access to Fable via usage credits, and will receive a one-time $100 credit. Demand for Fable has been challenging to predict, which is why we rolled it out to subscription plans in stages, extending access several times as we secured additional capacity.
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I guess this is because personal todos are typically more discrete and easy to time-bound? We use Linear but without task time-bounds or sprints; it takes as much time as it takes to do it right. The only bounds are project milestones, not the granular tasks within them, and even those should be negotiable to ensure quality
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Interesting difference between personal and corporate todo apps (e.g. Todoist vs. Linear) is the natural unit of scheduling tasks: days for the former, sprints for the latter.
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@shorttimelines He stepped down as AI Czar at the end of March, they never appointed a new one.
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The White House has launched a program called 'Gold Eagle' which will give them more control over American frontier AI releases, and will require explicit government approval over which companies are granted access to new models. Voluntary participation may be coming to an end.
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We've resolved an issue where Fable was not selectable as a model within Claude.ai or Claude Code for a 30 minute period.
You may need to restart Claude Code. If Fable is not your default model afterwards, you should reselect it with /model.
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This is what a fast takeoff looks like
Arena.ai@arena
Big news: Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now #1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5. This is a 17-place jump from Kimi-k2.6 (#18 -> #1). In Frontend, Kimi-K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 domains: Brand & Marketing, Reference-Based Design, Data & Analytics, Consumer Product, Simulations, and Content Creation Tools, landing #2 only in Gaming behind Fable 5. The full model weights will be released by July 27. Congrats to the @Kimi_Moonshot team on this major milestone!
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We've reset 5-hour and weekly rate limits for all users.
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@catgirl4romney @zeta_globin You vastly overestimate my abilities in this domain
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@shorttimelines @zeta_globin Cure diabetes
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@BjarturTomas Yeah, I think humans are just not equipped to fathom how quickly barriers will fall when we have millions or billions of superintelligences running simulations at incredible speed
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My biggest problem with AI 2027 is I don't think it is science-fictional enough. That is, the end of the scenario seems optimized for respectability over accuracy - here I refer to the "special economic zones" and "robot economy" parts. Their industrial explosion assumes human-scale robots will be building robot factories to build more human-scale robotics factories. This is a respectable assumption and one that is fun to model, but seems likely false to me.
I applaud Kokotajlo and his team for making it more legible that AI corps will be vertically integrating to the point they can manufacture their own customers. But they [their mainline narrative] almost entirely elide[s] that there are extreme incentives to miniaturize all the way to the physical limits of miniaturization, that there is immense power in making the unit of self-replication as small as possible, and that the construction of a self-replicator dependent only on environmental inputs (rather than inputs from the human economy) is likely to be something of a discontinuity.
Even if we make the fashionable choice of pretending synthetic biology and nanotechnology won't be the first path to sovereign infrastructure, the unit of replication is unlikely to be a conventional factory or anything close to a conventional factory. It's going to be the smallest sufficiently useful replicator the "army of geniuses" can construct. To put it crudely and insultingly, if we arbitrarily pretend biological and nanotechnological infrastructure will be impossible, we should at least model the unit of self-replication as being as small as critics allow it to be before they arbitrarily dismiss it as impossible by virtue of being the product of biotech or nanotechnology.
But why should we ignore biology and nanotechnology again? It's commonly said it's just really, really hard. It's worth making explicit that this is a claim that millions of superintelligences running tens or hundreds of times faster than human brains will be incapable of getting purchase in these domains for years or decades. This is a very strong claim!
Often, people justify this by pointing to limits to the speed of running experiments and collecting data. And there are limits there but they don't look very limiting. We can imagine automated bio labs focused on designing sensors and actuators that are partially alive, modified multicellular life - living microscopes, little empirical fingers granting a window into the realm of the very small, that have the advantage of being extremely cheap to replicate. All of this as a supplement to advances in conventional microscopy and the sheer manufacturing capacity to construct vastly more of what we already have.
This should allow experiments at a massive scale and parallelism, collecting data that is used to perfect simulations and autoregressive models trained on same.
You can postulate enormous serial constraints. But is that a conservative assumption? The greater the degree of miniaturization, the faster the empirical feedback loop. And we should expect great progress in simulations, as I mentioned. Importantly, one can stick to the part of the design space that is both useful and accurately simulated by the simulators one has.
2027's assumption of human-level robotics implies automated wet labs unconstrained by shortages of skilled human labour - both physical and intellectual. This implies much faster progress in biotechnology which, in turn, implies synthetic organisms (including multicellular organisms) that can, themselves, accelerate biotechnology. And if Drexler-style nanotechnology is possible, advanced biotechnology will be very useful in getting there.
There is also the spectre of quantum computers, which from what I understand are likely to be extremely useful for certain physical calculations, including some of use in biology, nanotechnology, and improving conventional molecular simulations. Given we seem to be expecting quantum computers in the 2030s even absent AGI, we should assume ASIs will be able to construct them.
I read AI 2027 as being partially a political document, less so than 2040 but still heavily constrained by political considerations. So maybe this is an intended compromise. But to the extent it is treated as pure prediction, I expect it will lead many readers to be predictably surprised by self-replicators, macroscopic and otherwise.
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