@aleabitoreddit I see high volumes on SIVE.SK (35M-55M) so institutions are definitely buying, some might hold short term, some longer term, uptrend still intact.
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siflower
314 posts
siflower
@siflower
economics/finance enthusiast, tennis player, piano student, francophone
http://tinyurl.com/5u6sne Katılım Temmuz 2008
118 Takip Edilen42 Takipçiler
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC:
Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT.
At ~$250m...
From confirmed clients, est. mapping:
1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers.
2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers
4. And other unconfirmed customers.
People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility:
If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too.
$AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60).
And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term.
That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself.
I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification.
Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE:
- If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+.
- $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+.
- And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers:
At ~$250M.
Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations...
Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position.
This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains.
And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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@aleabitoreddit @Investmnt_Eagle $MRVL and $POET are at the bottom of the ETF list. Does that reflect their market share potential and therefore $SIVE?
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Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too.
$AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60.
Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way.
$SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF.
YTD Returns of Each Index Stock:
$IQE: +282.5%
$AXTI: +246.6%
Landmark: 167.54%
$AAOI: +157.37%
$SIVE: +113.08%
$SOI: +103.54%
$LITE: +100.27%
$LWLG: +92.35%
$VIAV: +88.71%
$AIXA: +73.92%
$AEHR: +70.4%
$CIEN: +67.67%
$FORM: +60.67%
$FOCI: +60.44%
$CAMT: +49.13%
$GLW: +46.77%
$SMHN: +45.94%
Fujikura: +43.89%
$COHR: +41.81%
$KEYS: +40.48%
$TSEM: +36.42%
$ASX: +29.89%
$MTSI: +28.34%
$NOK: +27.5%
Shin-Etsu: +27.33%
$ONTO: +26.28%
$BESI: +24.71%
$UMC: +18.11%
$INTC: +17.27%
$OXINF: 15.03%
$FN: +12.79%
Eoptolink: +11.82%
$TSM: +6.00%
$HIMX: +5.39%
$SMTC: +4.11%
Sumitomo: +3.67%
$CSCO: +3.25%
Innolight: +.33%
$MRVL: +.16%
$APH: -6.48%
$MXL: -7.62%
$AVGO: -7.99%
$POET: -12.99%
$TEL: -14.93%
This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark).
However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year.
The equal weighted return?
50.033%
I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward.
Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments.
Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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@aleabitoreddit I finally got it: TSEM is going up a lot recently among photonics stocks because it's relatively smaller cap and had not gone up.
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$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle…
Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing?
Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green.
This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout.
Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.
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@ResearchQf Got it. Thanks for sharing that anyway. Single digit growth of bits is probably the drag on MU’s price action post er.
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Those aren't mine but consensus which aren't 100% self-consistent as analysts provide different metrics.
The point was ASPs are 1st order. Bits are 2nd order. Cons Feb DRAM ASP +42% ~ $15B+ DRAM cons. Actual ASP +mid 60s % ~ $18B actual DRAM x change in bits.
Avg DDR contract Feb Q was up well above 60s % Q/Q. More stable HBM brought avg ASP to mid-60s Q/Q.
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$MU consensus. Expectations are much higher.
DDR spot leveled off last few months. NAND spot continued to rise.
For short term numbers, use independent product price assumptions (which is to 1st order what matters) by applying typical lags to spot. Then compare vs consensus.
To repeat, what truly matters is duration and less likely short term price reaction, which is sometimes noise.
If spot prices go sideways 2026 into 2027, what is your steady state earnings? And more importantly, how does memory and storage demand scale with AI applications going forward vs supply?
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@crux_capital_ How do you compare $CIEN and $GLW? There's news that $META buys from $GLW and $APPL will do more business with $GLW, but not much news about $CIEN.
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There are 2 opportunities in the market that I love
$CIEN $AAOI $LITE $COHR $SPY
1 - A post earnings dip that is unjustified, which presents an opportunity for investors that know what actually matters and are listening closely
2 - A day where there is macro headwinds, where a specific sector (optics for me) is showing massive strength. What usually happens here is that when the macro tape clears up, these names get to move uninhibited. When this does happen, investors have more time to get in on a muted move.
So if you have concerns about buying tops, just know there are many ways to play this trade that aren't as risky
Gaetano@crux_capital_
This has become one of my favorite photonics plays $CIEN $AAOI $LITE $COHR $LWLG Ciena’s core business is in high-speed optical networking. One of the most important AI opportunities for them right now is scale-across networking. Think connecting data center to data center so they can operate like one larger training cluster without being limited by physical walls or local power constraints. Ciena is already seeing extraordinary demand here. Management said three major hyperscalers are deploying its optical solutions for these distributed training environments. But they are not stopping at scale-across. They recently announced the Vesta 200 6.4T optical engine, a new high-density, low-power optical product aimed at scale-out and next-generation scale-up architectures inside and around the data center. If they execute, that expands the story well beyond traditional WAN/DCI and pushes them further into the AI data center buildout. They gave a really nice post-earnings opportunity around the mid-270s. Now the stock is back around 360. There are always opportunities out there.
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@aleabitoreddit I don't understand the muted MU price action post $12.2 EPS. Hope you'll do a post on this.
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It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions.
Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY.
Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
99.9% of this place was bearish and posted:
- “KOPSI Crash”
- “Memory charts look like Silver?”
Or something along the lines of
“Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down.
But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long.
The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.
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You're correct in saying downstream players typically have more pricing power. $AAPL for example, makes the most for selling the IPhone than Foxconn that assembles it.
However, in photonics, lasers are the bottleneck currently and are extremely, extremely valuable.
Especially EML capacity right now, since other players like Innolight/Eoptolink cannot do that.
That's where most of $LITE's premiums come from actually + using their own lasers for captive vertical integration with OCS and 1.6T.
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Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today.
I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE.
As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains.
When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics.
For the start of next Photonics Supercycle.
The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar?
Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed).
With current pluggable transceiver cycles:
Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source.
So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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@forced_alpha @aleabitoreddit CW (Continuous-Wave) lasers are the primary type used for mainstream CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architectures in 2026, not EML.
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Yup. SIVE > POET > MRVL is the chain. $130M laser die supplier with EML qualification moats feeding into the whole CPO ramp. Substrate concentration upstream is wild too. Just 3 suppliers for silicon photonics. Qualification cycles on EMLs mean you can't
just swap suppliers overnight too.
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The Photonics Supercycle is here.
$NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics.
And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ).
“NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.”
Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra.
This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.”
“Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch.
The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect”
Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands.
NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking.
CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon.
The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light.
It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains.
Then price them in.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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Soitec < $SOI / $SLOIF > is now up, a lot since my post a week ago.
As they’re the Western monopoly over silicon photonics and CPO substrates.
I post my ideas for free, and they get priced in immediately.
Instead of former models where:
-> Bank analysts sell research for $10,000-$40,000+
-> Hedge funds can accumulate the next chokepoints at low prices
-> Retail investors find out at the top after they’re already priced in.
And for the first time:
Retail on X are earlier than institutions to the architectural paradigm shifts in AI.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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Brilliant breakdown of the OCI MSA and the Optical War. But to map the full battlefield, we have to look at the Second Front—and the $130M microcap quietly selling the ammunition to both sides.
While the OCI Consortium (Broadcom/Meta/MSFT) is fighting for GPU-to-GPU scale-up, there is another massive ecosystem completely left out of this piece: The $MRVL & Celestial AI alliance.
Here is the missing value chain:
1. The System Layer: $MRVL & Celestial AI In Feb 2026, Marvell acquired Celestial AI for $3.25B. They aren't just targeting scale-up; they are attacking the "Memory Wall" using Celestial's Photonic Fabric to connect compute directly to high-capacity memory pools. This is the direct rival to the Broadcom CPO vision.
2. The Optical Engine: $POET Celestial AI doesn’t build the physical optical engines in-house. They partner with POET Technologies. POET uses its Optical Interposer platform to build the highly customized engines required to actually drive the Photonic Fabric.
3. The Base Layer (The Bottleneck): $SIVE Here is the kicker that ties the entire industry together. Silicon cannot emit light. Whether you are Ayar Labs (OCI Front) or POET (Marvell Front), you are fabless. You desperately need high-power, multi-wavelength Indium Phosphide (InP) DWDM lasers.
As your article rightly points out, NVIDIA just dropped $4B to lock up the legacy giants (Lumentum and Coherent). So where do the independent optical engine builders get their InP lasers?
Enter Sivers Semiconductors (STO: $SIVE / OTC: $SVVSF).
They are the pure-play InP foundry supplying the custom CW laser arrays for both Ayar Labs' SuperNova ELS (aligning with the OCI standard) AND POET's optical engines (powering the Marvell ecosystem). High-volume manufacturing is already secured via WIN Semi in Taiwan and banked in the US via Partstat.
The AsymmetrySivers has effectively hedged the Optical War. It doesn't matter if the OCI consortium or the Marvell ecosystem wins the dominant market share in 2027. Both architectures require massive amounts of external DWDM light, and Sivers is illuminating both.
Yet, it trades at a ~$130M market cap. Why? A distressed major shareholder is currently forced-liquidating his position to cover personal bond maturities. The chart is temporarily broken by a margin call, entirely masking the fundamental reality.
The copper wall is here, but the real war is over InP supply.
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@aleabitoreddit Can't buy it with either Charles Schwab or Interactive Brokers.
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I’m long $SIVE at $140M.
I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed.
$SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers.
Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck.
But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles.
They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova.
And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA.
Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally.
$POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers…
But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?
It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B.
So now at $130m:
-
- You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET.
- Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI.
And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential.
On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”.
And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers."
Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come.
I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.
It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week.
Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo.
Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in.
Downside risk:
- execution (as always)
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others.
- $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed.
I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC.
Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier.
When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M.
I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck).
But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up.
Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers.
If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures.
Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated.
Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622.
This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI.
TLDR:
InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations.
$SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp.
I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst).
The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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@mikealfred CIFR is down the most, up the least among the miners in the last 2 days.
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B. Riley initiated ASST and MSTR with buy ratings yesterday. I agree. If you want to be long Bitcoin treasury companies, you want to do it near the peak of bearish sentiment when the model is actually starting to work.
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@aleabitoreddit IREN could and should also try to work out a deal with NVDA don't they?
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$NBIS vs. $IREN.
The difference is night and day.
Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float
Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum
Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing.
One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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@siflower @aleabitoreddit I believe you can, the ticker in the US is just different: try $SLOIF
It is an OTC security here so some brokers may not allow access, but I am on a somewhat conservative one and I was able to find it.
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Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies?
Soitec is up 16% intraday.
If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA:
It’s parabolic.
$SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO.
And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week.
Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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@aleabitoreddit How is China going to get oil? I suspect this would be a short term tactic.
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Just in: Trump is angered after Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz.
> Iran Places Underwater Mines
> Trump Angry bc Oil
> Urgent need to clear them
> Mine Detection + Clearance Companies = Profit?
If you want to profit off the situation:
Defense companies like $CODA, $KRKNF, $OPTT, $MIND, $EXA, $ESLT and many others stand to benefit.
It's the biggest catalyst of the decade for aquatic defense contractors, given the new news.
Just need to figure out who stands to benefit the most.
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