BITCOIN - WEEKLY
BITCOIN may have just had a false breakdown and recovery ( similar to TLT )
BITCOIN breached $75,500 to the downside and has now recovered
$93k next target
bitcoin:native
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Leveraged Leaders
2.8K posts
Leveraged Leaders
@simple_setups
Simple trading technique with outsized returns. Wait for the setups to happen and then execute. Rinse / repeat. Not financial advice. Just my opinion.
Katılım Ağustos 2021
320 Takip Edilen468 Takipçiler
OIL - DAILY
On the 21st we showed how price was "crawling" along the 50 DMA & how that leads to breakdowns
OIL opening the week down below the 50 DMA & the Intermediate Trend line
Gap @ $87.50 next
$oil $uso $sco
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
OIL - DAILY OIL now has another close under the 20 dma (yellow) And notice it now has 5 touches along the 50 dma (green) Price is crawling along the 50 dma Often times as price does this it eventually breaks below First downside target is the gap fill @ $87.50 $USO $SCO $OIL
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TLT - Weekly
We were looking for a False Breakdown on May 20th
And we got it
Weekly Positive Divergence on RSI
Above Average Volume
Bullish Reversal Candle
Bullish
$TLT $TMF
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
TLT - WEEKLY Keep an eye on TLT Weekly RSI & Stoch are oversold Look for a false breakdown and recovery of the lower channel trend line X is now filled with Interest Rate doomers - you know what that makes me want to do $TLT $tmf
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@bootsiejones @KobeissiLetter Agree. It’s amazing how many people on X complain day in and day out about the market going up. I’m like, why are you complaining. Great it’s going up - make money. Great it’s going down - make money. Sideways sucks lol… but you can still make money
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@KobeissiLetter Did you make money?
Did you recognize the game?
Did you take it personally?
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Absolutely incredible:
Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952.
We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: US Consumer Sentiment officially falls to its lowest level on record in data going back to 1952, down another -10% last month. Consumers now see inflation rising to 4.8% over the next 12 months. This puts the Consumer Sentiment index down -21% since February 2026, before the Iran War. Not even the 1980s saw Consumer Sentiment this low.
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@pontificatormax The crazy part is that anyone still watches the news expecting to be told the truth about anything. Lol
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The Vice Admiral Robert Howard story is absolutely wild. On the left is a before picture and the right is from a recent Fox News interview. Its supposed to be the same person, but, well, look at the neck on the right.
SXL@sxl_esq
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AAII Bears are +40%
VIX is under 18
Since COVID this has happened 8 times now
SPX Positive 6 of the previous 7 times 2 months later
1 time was before the February 2025 Top
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TLT - WEEKLY
We warned about a possible fake breakdown on TLT
On the WEEKLY ( still a day left ) - A False Breakdown in progress
TLT has a Positive Divergence on the Weekly RSI (5)
$TLT $tmf
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
TLT - WEEKLY Keep an eye on TLT Weekly RSI & Stoch are oversold Look for a false breakdown and recovery of the lower channel trend line X is now filled with Interest Rate doomers - you know what that makes me want to do $TLT $tmf
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SPX - WEEKLY
Comparing the 2025 & 2026 Corrections
The 10 WMA has now crossed the 20 WMA
And price is breaking out the upside
No reason to be bearish here
$SPY $SPX
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XLF - Daily
Backtest of the breakout today
Close above the 20 DMA
50 DMA has turned up
There is a .85 correlation coefficient between XLF & SPX
If Financials are breaking out SPX is going also
$XLF
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
XLF - Daily Financials getting a big bounce off 50 dma (green) And breaking out of the Bull Flag If Financials start to run here You better not be short the Market $XLF
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OIL - DAILY
OIL now has another close under the 20 dma (yellow)
And notice it now has 5 touches along the 50 dma (green)
Price is crawling along the 50 dma
Often times as price does this it eventually breaks below
First downside target is the gap fill @ $87.50
$USO $SCO $OIL
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
OIL - Daily OIL has a large H&S pattern in play The Neckline is @ $87.50 - First Gap Under there and the 2nd Gap is @ $68.50 These gaps will fill $oil $sco $oild $USO
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@utopia_escape Even if The Top was in , price will rally to the 61.8 Fib retrace - around $100 . That’s not a metals things.. that is what happens after most topping formations . I don’t thing The Top is in however .. Once price breaks out over $100 , new highs with be in store
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While I don't think the high is in, the similarities with the previous $silver bull market are striking. The problem with that is that I can't believe that by 2033 the cost of production will be under $40/oz, and cost of (marginal) production is always a commodity's floor.
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@DonMiami3 @yieldsearcher Going to be rainy and 60 in the NE the whole 3 day holiday. They skated on this one lol
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I hate sounding like a doomer but the real scary part is we have not even started our peak consumption season, where our daily usage goes up by 1.5mb PER DAY or 10mb per wk.
And it starts this wknd.
HFI Research@HFI_Research
Looks like the largest crude draw in history.
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@realEstateTrent Yet, you still feel like your 15 years old , just with a ton more bills - LOL
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46 is a weird age, because it feels like you suddenly go from being younger than most people around you to being older than most people around you
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Leveraged Leaders retweetledi
Now my X Feed is filled with Interest Rate gurus
"10yr now 4.5%"
You know what that means
Yields will be topping soon
Time to look at TLT once again ?
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OIL - Daily
OIL has a large H&S pattern in play
The Neckline is @ $87.50 - First Gap
Under there and the 2nd Gap is @ $68.50
These gaps will fill
$oil $sco $oild $USO
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XLF - Daily
Financials getting a big bounce off 50 dma (green)
And breaking out of the Bull Flag
If Financials start to run here
You better not be short the Market
$XLF
Leveraged Leaders@simple_setups
XLF - Daily Financials with a Bullish Breakout from the Flag Financials catching a bid - interesting $XLF
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Ultimately the main driver of major market tops is employment and liquidity. When both of those dry up then you get a hit to Main Street and Wall Street.
So far there has been enough liquidity still floating through the system thanks to the $5-6 trillion printed just 5 years ago.
So even though inflation has made it harder on Main Street, equities continue to rise and so far Corporations have kept employees.
But that liquidity will leave the Stock Market and move into the commodity market - which has already begun. Eventually commodities will go though a major bull run, Corporations will cut to fix balance sheets and equities will lag significantly
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@simple_setups That’s a pretty extreme scenario.
But in your view, what would be the actual benefit of “bigger crash → bigger crisis”? Who would realistically gain from that outcome?
And what signals would convince you it’s being set up rather than just a normal deleveraging cycle?
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Unpopular opinion: they manipulated the stock market to these highs because they needed a big enough cushion for the inevitable reverse carry trade crash catalyst.
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TLT - WEEKLY
Keep an eye on TLT
Weekly RSI & Stoch are oversold
Look for a false breakdown and recovery of the lower
channel trend line
X is now filled with Interest Rate doomers - you know
what that makes me want to do
$TLT $tmf
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@zen_trends Ha! Fact is that inflation was rampant under Biden and thus rates .. since Trump has been in office rates have not risen. You are the one blaming Trump for interest rates rising which is clearly false.. the chart says it all.
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Uh oh…
The stable genius at work with his genius policies
$SPX $QQQ
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@zen_trends Ok man. We all know you have TDS.. lmao . And never heard of Covid
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@simple_setups Please. Ever hear of Covid? Fuck Trump and all he stands for.
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