Simon Nicholls

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Simon Nicholls

Simon Nicholls

@sinichol

Father, quant researcher, blogger & medium editor, utilitarian, political pragmatist

London, England Katılım Mayıs 2013
337 Takip Edilen942 Takipçiler
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
We've all sorted worldometers' by deaths/1m. e.g. in blue to Apr1 But, places are only comparable if they could have similar death rates. Even then NPI level/timing, seeding, etc, vary spread. Are 1st🌍places comparable? Beyond? e.g. d/1m 50-59 vary hugely. What to do? 1/14
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@elonmusk Why are you striving for, and celebrating, the redundancy of mankind?
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PidginPosting
PidginPosting@PidginPosting·
@FraserNelson @MichaelRosenYes The work of Prof Wood was critiqued here, and has never been addressed.
Simon Nicholls@sinichol

@FraserNelson Except mobility, which shows both voluntary & imposed responses to LD measures, shows a very high correlation with infection. So perhaps the good professor isn’t all that good? And you should be featuring decent data science like mine? Oh, I forget @toadmeister won’t let you.

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Fraser Nelson
Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson·
This is extraordinary from the Covid inquiry. No modelling “established” that 23,000 lives would be saved if lockdown had happened a week earlier - that was a notorious and debunked Ferguson claim…
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@PidginPosting @FraserNelson Thanks for your efforts... I fear my C19 analysis will just go ignored... I've resigned myself to the utter waste of time it was... the majority aren't interested in finding the most likely right answer, and @elonmusk refuses to create a plaform that rises these to the top... 🤷‍♂️
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PidginPosting
PidginPosting@PidginPosting·
@FraserNelson And the flawed assumptions in that counterclaim were examined here:
Simon Nicholls@sinichol

@FraserNelson Except mobility, which shows both voluntary & imposed responses to LD measures, shows a very high correlation with infection. So perhaps the good professor isn’t all that good? And you should be featuring decent data science like mine? Oh, I forget @toadmeister won’t let you.

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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@SBaggsy @cjsnowdon @toadmeister You don’t get it. 1️⃣the averages reported are for how demand is met, not wind oversupply 2️⃣ there’s no need for storage, by 2030 oversupply will mean <5% of generation will be from gas as just a smoothing tool, which will work just fine until storage becomes a cheaper alternative
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Simon Baggs
Simon Baggs@SBaggsy·
@sinichol @cjsnowdon @toadmeister An average is not the right metric. We don't use electricity "on average", output must react to demand. The only way the current system could cope is if we had massive amounts of storage which we don't and are unlikely to have for many years.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@ScrewderiaF1 Lewis, as that era of car was the fastest… it’s a pointless race… put them all Lewis’ car, it is the best… 🏎️
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@BombadilJayJay @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Depends if we cut income tax… ideologically one could argue we should tax idleness, so tax wealth more and income less… but, reality is we already tax wealth quite heavily, e.g. council, stamp, capital gains, inheritance, etc… so not sure it should increase.
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JayJayBombadil
JayJayBombadil@BombadilJayJay·
@sinichol @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Would this be the only new tax on people’s assets you’d support, or is this one of many? Like a wealth tax? I would agree with extending CGT on primary residence, but not if it’s part of broader raid on wealth, I.e. people who save, invest, and make smart decisions.
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Henry Bolton OBE 🇬🇧
Henry Bolton OBE 🇬🇧@_HenryBolton·
Surely, if the Stamp Duty is removed, sellers will simply raise the asking price by a similar amount. Sellers will gain, buyers will see no difference and the Treasury will lose at least £4.5bn in revenue.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@Boredom43718552 @_HenryBolton It’s better than stamp… and the Exchequer can’t afford to lose tax revenue, so to get rid of a nasty tax it will need replacing with a less nasty one.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@JohnnyClamantis @_HenryBolton You can already offset your CGT against capital expenses in your property. Essentially the purchase price of the property is lifted by the capital expense amount.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@BombadilJayJay @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk There is already a back door tax on families, stamp is a wealth tax on your 1st property. First time buyers shouldn’t pay this on their 1st buy. If we scrap stamp and set a CGT rate that raised a similar amount it’d make it fairer and with no friction if you’ve made no gain.
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JayJayBombadil
JayJayBombadil@BombadilJayJay·
@sinichol @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk No, he’s right. There is a moral hazard in what you’re suggesting. People who invest with spare capital is one thing, but what you’re suggesting is a back door tax on regular famalies, and an incentive for the government to create inflation.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Crucially Stamp Duty is inflationary too. e.g. buy a house today that you need to sell tomorrow and you’ll want to sell it at what you paid + stamp to make your money back, which is instantly inflationary, and to my point adds market friction as others struggle to afford that.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton Inflation isn’t just a function of govt spending, believing that means you’ve fallen down @elonmusk’s altright 🐇 hole. Just think it through, basic supply and demand, if you constrain supply of an asset people need its prices will go up, Covid was a huge supply side squeeze.
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@rickygervais Cut your carb intake for breakfast and lunch, fast until the afternoon, exercise on an empty stomach, never eat more than 5-10% sugar in anything, calorie restrict for the whole day as in eat slightly less than you need… get your body into Ketosis.
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Ricky Gervais
Ricky Gervais@rickygervais·
I’m working out everyday now. Tennis, weights, running etc. My resting heart rate is really good and I train at quite a high rate too. So my question is, Why am I still fucking fat and exhausted all the cunting time?
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@DrAseemMalhotra You’ve just stated in your own tweet that you believe there may be evidence of a link between mRNA vaccines and cancer… So your entire beef with the PM is he didn’t say “possible”… could you be more of dick? … and who uses BREAKING at the top of their own tweets?
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Dr Aseem Malhotra
Dr Aseem Malhotra@DrAseemMalhotra·
BREAKING: The Prime Minister has just attacked and lied about me in Parliament 1. I did NOT state that ‘vaccines are linked to cancer’ I was presenting information about the possible link of the covid mRNA vaccine and cancer from US HHS data and quoting oncologist Professor Angus Dalgleish ‘it’s highly likely that the covid vaccines have been a significant factor in cancer of members of the royal family’ 2. Conflating legitimate safety concerns of a novel mRNA technology with all vaccines is preposterous and dangerous 3. Research reveals that behaviour such as Starmer’s today is what is fuelling the concerning reduced uptake of vital traditional vaccines. gh.bmj.com/content/7/5/e0… It’s no wonder trust in this Labour government is very low. We need to do better
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@GoodwinMJ It’s far worse than that, if you include National Insurance, and that payed by your employer in that tax band, thanks to Rachel and Gordon, you only receive £23 for every £100 you earn.
Simon Nicholls@sinichol

@RachelReevesMP's Employer NI rise is an Income Tax rise, it's a "not on your payslip" stealth tax. Gordon Brown ramped it up loads in the 2000s to pretend he was lifting your personal allowance. Reality it you pay 13.8% @ £9k, and 41.8% @ £12750, not 20%👇 They're lying. 1/2

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Matt Goodwin
Matt Goodwin@GoodwinMJ·
An insane statistic from the UK: If you are a "high earner" on £100,000 - £125,000, you only get to keep £38 of every £100 you earn -The Telegraph
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Simon Nicholls retweetledi
Gavin Rice
Gavin Rice@gavinantonyrice·
Why is the government so expensive? The answer isn't what you think. It's demographics. If you applied today's spending to the demographics of 20 years ago you could cut income tax by 13p in the pound. The ageing society + shrinking workforce = expensive.
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illuminatibot
illuminatibot@iluminatibot·
What went wrong?
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Simon Nicholls
Simon Nicholls@sinichol·
@JamieBonkiewicz Ummm… Stalinist communism is not communism… Popper’s communism is in fact “everybody is rich”, it is meant to follow capitalism, and occurs when the cost of production goes to zero… we are in fact heading towards this…
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Jamie Bonkiewicz
Jamie Bonkiewicz@JamieBonkiewicz·
For fuck’s sake. Socialism is NOT Communism Capitalism – anybody can be rich Communism – nobody can be rich Socialism – anybody can be rich but nobody should be poor
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Rupert Lowe MP
Rupert Lowe MP@RupertLowe10·
I have written to Tim Davie, Director-General of the BBC, calling on the broadcaster to withdraw future BBC coverage of Glastonbury.
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Keşfet

@elonmusk @PidginPosting @FraserNelson @MichaelRosenYes @SBaggsy @cjsnowdon @toadmeister @ScrewderiaF1