
Andrew Benton
5.4K posts

Andrew Benton
@sircromulent
LLM user, previously @SierraPlatform, CEO @rizaio, COO @ngrokHQ, CEO @charge, before that @twilio. Fan of commitment mechanisms and incentive alignment.



time travel paradox


The Philippines is a fantastic example of how deep and fast the drop in fertility is nearly everywhere on the planet. Just last week, on March 30, 2026, the Philippine Statistics Authority released the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The total fertility rate for the last three years has reached 1.7 children per woman, a dramatic fall from 4.1 in 1993, and well below the replacement rate (around 2.1 for a country like the Philippines). Since the NDHS computes the total fertility rate over three years, and it is dropping quickly, the total fertility rate for 2025 alone should be around 1.6, the same level as in the U.S. Let me repeat this: the Philippines and the U.S. have roughly the same total fertility rate. But U.S. income per capita is about 7.3 times the Philippine income per capita (when adjusted for purchasing power parity). Or to put it differently, Philippine income per capita today is the same as the U.S. had in 1910. In that year, the total fertility rate of the U.S. was around 3.5. At the same level of income per capita, the Philippines has a total fertility rate that is less than half. In some more urban regions, such as Calabarzon, the total fertility rate is 1.3. Historically, the rest of the country has followed the patterns of regions like Calabarzon with some lag, so the most likely scenario is that in a few years, the Philippines will have a total fertility rate of around 1.3 as well. Compared with the United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP), the Philippines is now at the fertility level the WPP had forecast for 2047, despite the aggressive reduction it made to the Philippines’ forecast fertility between 2022 and 2024. The Philippines is interesting because, compared with other Asian countries, it is a relatively religious and rural country without the Confucian obsession with education found in China or South Korea. It is also a country that many still associate with high fertility. Just yesterday, one reader left a comment on my previous post on fertility, using the Philippines as an example of high fertility, that “refuted” my claims. No, it does not. Finally, three technical points. First, I am reporting total fertility, not completed fertility (and yes, I am keenly aware of the difference between the two). Looking at age-specific fertility rates suggests that completed fertility for younger women will actually be below the current total fertility rate. Second, no, emigration does not matter here. I am talking about fertility rates, not birth rates. Third, the official release: psa.gov.ph/content/fertil…


Code is an output. Nature is healing. For too long we treated code as input. We glorified it, hand-formatted it, prettified it, obsessed over it. We built sophisticated GUIs to write it in: IDEs. We syntax-highlit, tree-sat, mini-mapped the code. Keyboard triggers, inline autocompletes, ghost text. “What color scheme is that?” We stayed up debating the ideal length of APIs and function bodies. Is this API going to look nice enough for another human to read? We’re now turning our attention to the true inputs. Requirements, specs, feedback, design inspiration. Crucially: production inputs. Our coding agents need to understand how your users are experiencing your application, what errors they’re running into, and turn *that* into code. We will inevitably glorify code less, as well as coders. The best engineers I’ve worked with always saw code as a means to an end anyway. An output that’s bound to soon be transformed again.

A detailed and brutal look at the tactics of buzzy AI compliance startup Delve "Delve built a machine designed to make clients complicit without their knowledge, to manufacture plausible deniability while producing exactly the opposite." substack.com/home/post/p-19…


New blog post: "A sufficiently detailed spec is code" I wrote this because I was tired of people claiming that the future of agentic coding is thoughtful specification work. As I show in the post, the reality devolves into slop pseudocode haskellforall.com/2026/03/a-suff…












