Simon The Trader

Microstrategy is a ticking time bomb. Their cash obligations are insane and the only way they can afford them is by issuing more “high yield paying” debt to fund their existing debt. It is ponzinomics at best, straight up fraud at worst. With STRC now trading sub $100 again, Microstrategy are unable to raise more capital via STRC. They will have to go back to selling MSTR shares if they want to keep buying more BTC (which Saylor will want to). MSTR here is one of the most screaming obvious short trades I’ve ever seen in all my years as a trader.

@ebschor @Strategy There is absolutely no way they will be able to afford that yield without diluting the MSTR stock to near worthlessness.

@Strategy And, at that size, it's going to cost you $50,000,000/month in dividends. How many different ways will y'all come up with to lose money?

$STRC has grown to $5 billion in a bitcoin bear market. Are you prepared for what comes next?

@Brennan_BTC22 @ShaunSmiths Easy to spot the ones that didn’t sell!

@ShaunSmiths Nah. I cashed out nice profits. I’m not a bag holder.

Like clockwork $BTC is down. $MSTR is down 10% in 2 trading sessions and the $STRC ATM disabled. Quit listening to people that claim the next bull market has started on every 3-5% pump.

@Brennan_BTC22 He can buy all the BTC he wants, unfortunately for him BTC has futures markets which allows for the selling of paper BTC. His aggressive attempts to manipulate the price of Bitcoin into a bull market will fail disastrously.

If it is not obvious by now that Saylor is the only large bidder in the $BTC market right now you must be mentally challenged. It has been obvious that Bitcoin only catches a bid when the $STRC ATM is running. The $MSTR and $STRC ATM volumes this week will be a small fraction of last week. If only one entity is maintaining the floor, look out below!

@MikeCopples @Brennan_BTC22 Metaplanet? Looks even worse than the MSTR price! 🤣

@Brennan_BTC22 Metaplanet and ibit.

The bear flag on Bitcoin is playing out. I’m targeting sub $60k over the next month. $BTC

@Booksey It is literally empty!

Someone sitting in their moms basement in the UK is making up lies about Dubai While someone in India retweets it spreading the false narrative further Meanwhile in Downtown Dubai, UAE 🇦🇪 This is what reality looks like ⬇️

This rally will fail. $BTC

The rally in stocks / correction in oil over the last 2 days provided the perfect opportunity to add to stock shorts and oil longs. Right now the market is hinging on the oil price, if you look at the vix it is trading 1:1 with oil, which is trading inverse to stocks. I remain bullish on oil, and therefore bearish on stocks for now. I think most investors are very unprepared for what comes next.

I’ve started to build / add to crypto short positions here, mostly MSTR for now. It is still in a very strong downtrend, and looks to be flipping prior support into resistance. Not only do you profit from the falling Bitcoin price, but also from the dilution.

Noticing some pretty large accounts get bearish on the stock market here, and they could be correct - you can build a strong case for a pullback. However I personally think given the effectiveness of the US-Israel strikes, if there is no immediate escalation, there is more likely to be a repricing in stocks higher as the market gets more clarity of outcome. I picked up some more stocks yesterday and shorted vol. If I am wrong it will be apparent fairly quickly and I can unwind these positions for minimal losses.

As I’ve been saying. Bitcoin is finally showing some relative strength. Still targeting a push into the mid-70k range. $BTC

@ZTheTrader Completely agree! Lack of clear direction at this point.

⚠️ The hardest thing about this market right now: - There is a solid thesis for a big move up or a big move down from here, almost equally as enticing - Tech stocks have seen a healthy valuation reset - Some stocks look more attractive than they have in years - Staples/Energy strongest start to the year in decades is a cautionary signal - Gold/silver still lingering signaling risk off - 10y finally below 4%, signaling flight to safety - VIX is extremely disconcerting here. Price action looks like it's ready for a "rip the bandaid off" at any moment - Too expensive to hedge with VIX - QQQ/SPY puts will get killed in sideways action - Volatility is too high to take swing longs Best thing to do in my opinion is focus on long term value and don't do anything hastily, especially with a bigger than usual position size. Take it slowly. The market will show its hand soon and you'll be able to size up thereafter.

Expect relief into March.

Bitcoin is most likely in a bear flag. A bounce into the $75-77k range here makes sense, before further downside. $BTC

@virtualbacon You’ve literally ruined your followers by bag holding since the top. And now you are telling them to buy? With what exactly?

The last time Bitcoin hit this fear level, it never stayed cheap for long. $63K crash. 200W SMA approaching. Here's why I'm not timing the bottom, I'm accumulating it. 0:00 Introduction – Why $58K Is a Key Level 1:49 200-Week Simple Moving Average Explained 3:27 Historical Bare Market Bottoms (2014, 2018, 2022) 5:12 Worst Case Scenario: How Low Can Bitcoin Go? 7:22 The Mindset Shift You Need in a Bare Market 10:07 Realized Price at $54K – What It Means 14:21 MVRV Z-Score & What It's Signaling Now 18:50 2022 vs 2026: An Eerily Similar Setup 21:34 Fear & Greed Index – Peak Fear Is Here 25:00 Why Bitcoin Is Breaking Every Correlation 27:33 My Honest Take: Ride or Die on Bitcoin 28:55 How to Actually Buy This Level (DCA Strategy) 33:42 Closing Thoughts & Where to Follow

@Cryptotea If you’re happy looking at a a red PL for the next couple of years, maybe longer, and comfortable losing 50% or more of your capital in the short term, then sure, buy Bitcoin here. Or you can wait for the trend to shift.

Bitcoin is more oversold than 3k in 2018 and 15k in 2022 there’s more fear now than during Covid, FTX and LUNA price is lower than before the halving, before Trump got elected, and before the last cycle ath I’m buying

@BiTSHaMMy “Institutions are going all in”.

In 2021 bull market $ETH ran 5000% move whilst Bitcoin pulled half the gains with a 2500% move Ppl are going to be shell shocked when Ethereum out performs Bitcoin again in the next bullrun You heard it here first, make sure you have some exposure to $ETH, its gonna melt faces

Today only confirmed my outlook. I do see the stock market correcting deeper over the next 1-2 months. Will make a video on it tomorrow.

The Nasdaq has broken its weekly EMA bands to the downside for the first time since February last year. Back then price fell >25%. A 25% drop from here would take the Nasdaq down to the 19000 range, closing the gap from last May. $NDX $NQ