Ivan Sivkov
564 posts
Ivan Sivkov
@sivkov_ivan
Servicing the largest telcos. Diverse tech and consultancy background. Extremely passionate about finance, markets and asset valuations. Managing own portfolio.
Sofia Katılım Şubat 2021
314 Takip Edilen232 Takipçiler
@lord_fed P.S. Don't know your 15 tickers but you may add also $ACN and $INFY to the list if not there yet. They'll come out as beneficiaries, not victims. Just be prepared for market to take 2-3 years to realize it. (4/N)
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@lord_fed That said, I'm mindful these names are more likely to drop another 20-30% before bottoming.
What I find even more amusing is I met many senior people in our industry that echo the 'software is done' view. Makes me laugh harder. (3/N)
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Dropped the paywall on the thesis section so everyone can read it and weigh in. Quite enjoying the debate on this one.
150 restacks and 200 likes on the post itself by Sunday globex and I’ll give away 5 annual subscriptions at random to one of the people that liked it.
Fed@lord_fed
The most expensive misread in markets right here is thinking AI kills software. I think it gets absorbed by it which is a completely different trade. Spent several weeks on this post and built a 15 name basket around the idea. lordfed.co.uk/p/why-software…
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@Guv999 Thank you so much for your generous guidance, your recent tweets were invaluable! 🙇♂️ I wish I could join your retail service but I fall slightly under the definition of HNWI
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All further positioning done in various sectors & trimming of some positions also was done as needed at today morning mkts open wrt my Retail Investor Group clients. Now the tweeting will be much less for the simple reason there will be no need to tweet frequently. This is time to hold all our positions patiently thro tree shakes and realize the profits after some months. Thanks.
😎👍
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@Tony_Schultz_ @ZeeContrarian1 $ES_F and $NQ_F acting accordingly.
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@sivkov_ivan @ZeeContrarian1 Kospi is flat and Nikkei is green
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Note to self:
As long as there are parabolic charts in major assets - $GLD, $SLV, $BTC, $ETH, $EWY - the whole market is vulnerable.
The world is interconnected.
A bubble does not pop in a vacuum. It hits everything.
People always justify it, like in gold and silver:
“This time is different.”
“It’s going up for the right reasons.”
It’s not.
Any chart that goes vertical will crash at some point.
And when it’s a major asset, the damage spreads everywhere.
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@MacroSkokie notice the recent strength of $APO and $KKR - that's a tell unless it's just a mechanical relief rally to reset oversold conditions. Will see but worth monitoring.
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My hunch is the credit problems are potentially too well telegraphed to become a system wide issue… not my expertise but seeing GS rolling out related products almost makes me want to say bottom is in :).
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@MacroSkokie It's entertaining to see how many people think a regular country can keep the entire world hostage, cut its life vein AND win a war against the 2 most advanced countries in the world
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Not that one little video which who knows if real is meaningful but imo anyone who thinks this turns into Suez Canal 2.0 or that US will be caught into a long drawn out war is a fcking moron :).
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@KiwiPMI Agreed, it may take a while until these stocks reach an inflection point. Downhill until then.
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@sivkov_ivan IMHO, the market is assuming first order events persist and ignoring the obvious second order considerations.
The trend is ofc your friend until it isn't.
On balance for indexes and closet indexers, re-positioning is a complex tightrope.
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I'm going to re-up this as it represents everything that's wrong with AI noise.
$70BN revenue Accenture buys Ookla for $1.2BN ($230MM revs) and probably loss making.
On a broad down day, Accenture is up market is down.
/1
Darren Sissons@KiwiPMI
All things considered, Accenture performing very well today despite the sell off and the AI over hype. 👀
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@KiwiPMI Plus, these co’s are AI beneficiaries IMO because they would harness AI to optimize their professional services. It’s a double dip.
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@KiwiPMI Just saw this now. Darren, I’m so happy to come across someone who can use that thing between the ears! Been singing the same song for about a year or so. If AI has legs it can run only via ACN and INFY, no other way.
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@MacroSkokie same gut feel mate, looking for SPX to bottom in the 6600-6700 area, then rape shorts in a brutal fashion
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“A successful retest would be even better…” potentially in progress. Stay focused. Headlines are meant to FU. Stay focused.
Sourpatchtrades@MacroSkokie
Conditions have been met. High probability, but no certainty, that the bottom is in. A successful retest would be even better. Therefore first large tranche of exposure has been put on. Never financial advice although under Trump not even sure I still need to say that :).
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@BergMilton Thanks Milton 🙇♂️
Big fan of these institutional freebies and already a subscriber of your retail letter!
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miltonberg.com
1:51 PM institutional note: “Today’s intraday action appears significant, and the probabilities suggest we are likely at or near the low of this corrective decline.” Our view is based on data, and we always frame conclusions in terms of probabilities.
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Friends and family may fail you, even your pet may let you down and pee on the floor...
But apparently the bottom of this range you can always rely on
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@TexasOncologist Yes exactly why I pointed out context was very different. Many better examples exist though: Pearl Habor, Cuban crisis, Gulf War, Iraq War; no or very minor correction following all of these.
When a war is telegraphed well in advance (like now), markets generally do OK.
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@sivkov_ivan I’m sure people understood dropping those bombs mean the end of the war and that would lead to a rally but noted
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My point in this post was that almost nobody is prepared for a rapid deescalation and even a hint of one would cause a violent reversal in positioning
It wasn’t a prediction, just pointing out right tail risk
All you have to do is look at the replies and it shows I’m dead on
Texas Oncologist@TexasOncologist
I don't know who needs to hear it, but I'm more worried about the right tail this weekend than the left It's been a while since we had a TACO weekend
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@IliaBouchouev Dr. Bouchouev, what is your view on the Brent-WTI spread? It's almost at zero (3 months out), do you think it would revert as it always does, or do you see it going further into deeply negative territory?
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Selling SPR oil is taking risk with questionable returns, but lending SPR oil into a steep backwardation is a smart trade with nearly risk-free returns. My views from DC testimony a few years ago are apolitical and they are still the same.
#oott
oversight.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
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