@ChristophRayMan @zerohedge More like $200MM of oil on a VLCC. Its like $1 per barrel.
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Tony Shultz
12.3K posts
Tony Shultz
@Tony_Schultz_
DYOR - Nothing I tweet is financial advice
Katılım Ağustos 2012
1.1K Takip Edilen371 Takipçiler
@zerohedge So there is no longer a Hormuz constraint. If there is a fee to get out, then products flow. For larger commodity vessels, $2MM is an annoying but doable fee for a ship handling 5-$10MM of goods
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Hormuz toll road operator (and IRGC Navy commander) turning back ships for not paying the $2MM.
At least Iran not blowing them up any more.
علیرضا تنگسیری@alirezatangsiri
کشتی کانتینربر SELEN به دلیل عدم رعایت پروتکلهای قانونی و نداشتن مجوز عبور از #تنگه_هرمز، توسط نیروی دریایی سپاه به عقب بازگردانده شد. عبور هرگونه شناور از این آبراهه مستلزم هماهنگی کامل با حاکمیت دریایی ایران است و این مهم جز به پشتوانه مردم شریف ایران به دست نمیآمد.
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@vishalanandg @BurggrabenH Thats because this chart is only showing ships with their transponders on
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@BurggrabenH odd to see this chart as it appears some ships are passing through.. along with rumors of transit fees being paid to pass through
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Let's be crystal clear about the state of the world energy economy.
PS: the below includes all vessels, including LNG and chemical tankers, bulk fertiliser, container vessels...everything.
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@mareram_ @BurggrabenH @GoldForecast Ships arent turning on their transponders. This only shows ships with transponders on.
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@BurggrabenH @GoldForecast I had heard that Iran was allowing ships of some countries to pass paying a fee. Isn't that true?
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@JMT94590 @market_sleuth @kurtsaltrichter Like historical averages matter since they turned on the money printer...
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@market_sleuth @kurtsaltrichter 18.5X multiple is still way too high compared to the historical average. 🤣
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If things get worse, earnings estimates haven’t even started to reflect the damage.
That support zone in the low 5000s becomes the destination.
That’s a 20% drop from current levels.
Not a crazy outcome if all three risks go wrong at the same time.
If things get better, the picture needs to turn.
Hormuz opens. Private credit stress stays contained. AI capex starts showing real returns.
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@EndsWellCapital @jimiuorio Never said it was the presidents children and I don't have TDS, you fucking retard.
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@Tony_Schultz_ @jimiuorio right, so it was the presidents children then... I was standing on the floor before you were born ... the market was a buy before any news, it could have been anything... take a pill for your tds
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This needs to be investigated and the perpetrators should never see anything but the inside of a prison cell for the rest of their lives..
Richard Hanania@RichardHanania
Oil trading spiked fifteen minutes before Trump’s Truth Social post.
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@intocryptoverse Let's see Bitcoin get through an actual bear market, something it's never existed during, before you spike the ball.
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For years, Gold bugs laughed at Bitcoiners on 30% drops and said "sOmE sToRe Of VaLuE"
Then Gold dropped 30% and Bitcoiners said the same thing back.
The truth is that whether you bought BTC or Gold in late 2017, your return is about the same today.
But I guess it's more fun for both sides to just throw shade back and forth
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@EndsWellCapital @jimiuorio Except I do. Been doing this a long time.. you just seem a bit naive. Thinking a market market suddenly needed to hedge aggressively enough to spike ES 30 bps randomly 5 min before news that moved the market 3%.
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@Tony_Schultz_ @jimiuorio I could spell it backwards, you still dont know wat your talking about
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your just uneducated as a retail trader, which is fine, but educate yourselves... oil producers have been shorting oil.. People with TDS want to blame trumps kids, its absurd. It could have been dealer hedging it was only 3k contracts.. the notional value is not a correct way to estimate the size of the trade, its ridiculous. 1 $500 contract is 300k notional. educate yourself brother x.com/zerohedge/stat…
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how mad can you be lol 6600 es contracts could have been a market maker hedging jump risk..85 oil contracts? you cant be serious... people are so uneducated and the market manipulation thought process is a toxic one that will ensure you lose money. cannot believe how many traders have got this wrong.. 90% fail so I guess it makes sense
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LloydsList: “At least two vessels transiting through the strait are understood to have paid in exchange for safe passage, with one fee reported to have been around $2m.”
$2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels = $1/barrel premium. Quite a bargain in this market.
Expect more to follow suit.
lloydslist.com/LL1156694/Zomb…
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@Celty1795085 @zerohedge Is hiding in wait a euphemism for dead?
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@zerohedge Can't they be seen from the coast?
Isn't Iran just hiding in wait?
Maybe Iranians are too addicted to their screens to look up?
It seems a visual would give plenty of time to warm up the fast attack boat.
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@Dremontjones @DVSignals Except they are not smart and mostly dead
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#OIL
Worth noting on this post: commercial oil shorts are not the same as outright bearish spec shorts...
A lot of that positioning is simply producers, refiners, merchants and users hedging real barrels and locking in forward margins... not necessarily making a clean directional bet that oil has to collapse.
If the geopolitical premium fades, that can help cap price. Not my primary...
But if disruption deepens, this can still turn into a pretty nasty upside squeeze...
Big commercial shorts in oil are not automatically bearish. In the right tape, they can sit right underneath a squeeze...
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
This is unprecedented: Short positions in Brent crude oil futures by producers, merchants, processors, and commercial users are up to a record $193 billion. These are the companies that physically produce, refine, trade, and consume oil, from major producers and refineries to shipping firms and industrial users. Short positions have DOUBLED since the start of the year. By comparison, the 2022 energy crisis peak was ~$155 billion. By selling futures contracts at today's prices, producers are agreeing to sell their future oil at ~$100+ per barrel, even if the market price falls by the time they actually pump it. This guarantees their revenue regardless of where prices go next, protecting their margins when prices normalize. Oil producers are seeing unprecedented profitability.
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@MichaelPBento He already closed his short and flipped long. 4D chess.
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You have to wonder if the reason that we didn’t completely retrace that candle from the fake de-escalation when Iran said there were in fact no talks taking place is because Bessent actually used the treasury to enter a short in oil futures. I mean it can’t be a coincidence that the Japanese Finance Ministry said overnight that they were going to do that.
What happens if Bessent’s short gets blown out?
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@SectionedHaven @R1bS1194 @sentdefender Is there no bigoted line your insufferable TRASH cult won't cross when committing logical fallacy? So4rry if I exceeded your vocabulary ( that is the # of words you understand)
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According to The Atlantic, citing three people with knowledge on the matter, following White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff's communications with Iranian decision-makers through Pakistani intermediaries, a 15-point plan, based on the same one presented to Iran last year, was presented for them to concede to if they want to forestall further strikes.
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@adam1trent @Skelebone_Jones Unfortunately, Washington is a very liberal broken state. Many self inflicted wounds from bad policy.
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@Tony_Schultz_ @Skelebone_Jones We don’t need the federal. No one earning that anyways. States need to get rid of them too. $17 in Washington is ridiculous.
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How much does it pay? Genuinely asking.
My experience from the US (where I grew up) is people pound the table about skills shortages and when you ask what they’re paying, it’s equivalent to working at Walmart in a no-skill job.
60 Minutes@60Minutes
Shipyards desperately need welders, pipefitters, and other skilled workers. But this work is grueling and dangerous. cbsn.ws/4bIyP6O
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@Cross_Malaki @adam1trent @Skelebone_Jones If people already wont work for minimum wage then why is one needed?
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@adam1trent @Skelebone_Jones Getting rid of minimum wage will not solve this problem, because people already don't want to work for minimum wage.
You're just a corporate boot licker who can't understand Economics.
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@Skelebone_Jones @adam1trent You disagreeing with yourself? You said nobody would work for minimum wage, so why is it needed then?
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@adam1trent @horsewithnonick @Alpaca_Capital @pegobry_en Yeah.. thats a problem with your state. Ours is less than half of that.
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According to the Wall Street Journal, citing two U.S. officials, the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the amphibious landing dock USS New Orleans and roughly 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit will cross into U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility on Friday. Notably, the same day that U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s 5 day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.
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