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@lBattleRhino I'm fucking heart broken for jiri what the fuck man

That was fucking insane LMFAO

@lBattleRhino One or the other is gonna forget a few memories after tn 💀

An aphorism from I don’t know who/when: “When people are worried about the future, they buy gold. When people are worried about the present, they sell gold.” Will be interesting to see if that plays out.

one thing to note about the BTC staircase pattern. A key characteristic is the absence of a retest. If the breakout is truly trend changing, it starts with an aggressive lockout move.

@BlankBrainTrade I'm still pissed this didn't get any likes

Patience to hit the trade after a huge downmove, close near the top, identify that vol will collapse and go back to largely ignoring the market Perfect example of how to not lose capital between good ideas

[ ZOOMER ] CRYPTO VC DRAGONFLY RAISES $650M FOR FOURTH FUND: FORTUNE

idk who needs to hear this, but waiting for illiquid weekend to dump 9-10 figures of spot, while avoiding purposefully work days and or green candles to sell into is by design and on purpose

Kek

@RunnerXBT i fw volk so much but honestly wouldn't be mad if diego won. guy has a great story

go Volk #UFC325

This is why you don’t map divs early. The temptation is to want to be early, but trying to be early on divs is not correct. Divs have a very simple technical backing and when they do hit you still have a LOT of value. You wait till it’s CLEAR. Remember divs are COUNTER TREND signals. Time it wrong or don’t apply the correct TA and you’re often in the way of a strong trend that will flush you out.

@RunnerXBT Made a Chrome extension that removes the "For You" tab and defaults onto a pinned List tab. Made Twitter so much better for me

You can now filter posts by "Recent" so simply unfollow account you dont want to see and or Mute them never, ever go to "For you" tab, easy fix

A trading signal is best understood as a measure of optimal market exposure rather than a buy or sell instruction. Think of it as a dynamic gauge that constantly reads market conditions (whether technical indicators, fundamental data, or other factors) and translates them into a recommended exposure level along a spectrum. At any given moment, it indicates how you should be positioned. It’s about maintaining alignment with what current conditions suggest is the appropriate level of risk. Profit or loss emerges as a natural outcome of how accurately the signal reads market conditions over time and how efficiently you can adjust your exposure to match it. In practice, specific discrete events tend to be most actionable and simple to implement (e.g. MA crossover vs. distance to MA). But even when working with discrete triggers like it’s a great mental model to have in mind.

@jimcattu enjoy your visit here <3

Weekend thoughts on BTC. 1. The main issue capping BTC price has been OG selling. Putting myself in their shoes, this year was a logical time to sell. It hit the mythical $100k price target. The ideology around it had significantly shifted from being an expression of Libertarian idealism into a mainstream asset co-opted by Wall Street and the Trump admin. There were toppish signals from the TCs. There was finally sufficient liquidity to exit large bags. This was the apex of the 4 year cycle, so if you believed in it, you were selling for the last quarter or two. 2. It is undeniable that BTC has disappointed many this year by failing to demonstrate strong momentum despite immense buying from the ETFs, MSTR, and other TCs. Gold hit the afterburners and humiliated BTC, which has parallels to 2020. That year, BTC eventually stepped up to the plate and left gold in the dust, but there was a long period of frustration before that. 3. BTC has been too consensus for a lot of the year. There was no longer any uncertainty around it. Now, finally there is a sense of capitulation and anger. I certainly have been frustrated by the way it has traded this year. Positioning was significantly cleared last week, and when it finally does start decisively moving, it will soar into thin books. 4. BTC trades like aids most of the time, and then resolves into violent lockout rallies higher. In order to capture most of the upside, either you have to stay long continually and tolerate the pain, or be good at buying into the scare the hoes moments. We haven't seen a real BTC rally since April-June, and even that move did not have a long vertical stretch like the past. The last proper one was post election last year. 5. I continue to be super bullish on the underlying macro over the next 6-12 months. The Trump admin wants to go balls to the wall and is leaning into pro-cyclicality, and they are dispensing with conventional guardrails against running things too hot. This is more important than any other factor in the markets. Unfortunately BTC was not the optimal vehicle to express this view this year, but my macro views have been correct, and played out enormously in other assets such as gold and stocks. 6. Pulling this all together, the picture is extremely simple. BTC is coiled and ready to finally have a violent rally higher, when OGs finally stop selling. I do not know exactly when this will be. What I am trying to figure out, is whether OGs view the 4 year cycle as having already concluded (a framework around 1064 days) or are still waiting for year end (a framework driven by the calendar year). Beyond that, whether the 4 year cycle has been the main driver of their selling, or if they would continue dumping past the date. 7. I am not certain when the bottom will be. Buying the stone bottom has never been my strength as a trader, and I am putting a lot of work into improving on this dimension. I am best at overall macro backdrop, staying long in size for meaty trends, and selling parabolic tops. I am generally not good at trading in choppy conditions. There are solid signs that we have entered a zone of value, but I do not know whether there will be another leg down or not. In any case, given the way BTC PA has evolved, and the psychological debates playing out in the market, it is more likely that we would see an ugly grinding bottom, not a V-shaped one. Have a great weekend everyone. It's a good time to unplug and refresh after an intense window.

@ExaltedFoks @domdosu I just use proxy switchyomega so proxy automatically turns on for certain sites

@domdosu I have legit been stopped out before bc i was too lazy to vpn and close a position lol

Hyperliquid removing US filter so I no longer have to VPN to adjust positions would be a top 3 quality of life change for me

@dulumu2 @insiliconot Drank before watching it last night and it was still ass lol

@insiliconot New tron is shite

I kinda want to go to cinema again, for like tron movie, it smells like sub 2010 sci fi sloppa, which should be good escapism. Maybe go to chainsaw man thingy too

Probably one of the most severe flushes I’ve ever seen on alts, I didn’t even imagine alts had this much leverage in them. It feels like someone got hit very hard and will see a large body float to the surface soon, reminds me a little of summer 2021. Good reminder to myself to own things that I am actually bullish on, and not things I am trying to shift on momentum. Some charts look like they’ll never recover, whereas some things look buyable for the first time in a while. When everyone is making hilarious amounts of money I am always tempted to start using leverage again. It is almost impossible to fight the feeling that you’re not making enough, or everyone else is outpacing you. Good reminder that fighting that feeling and avoid the wipeouts is worth it in the end. Check on your friends, likely a bad day for many. Personally, am concentrating my bags into the things I am happy to own for the next few years, and shedding the fat. Realised I own some assets based on not wanting to miss out, rather than on some actual thesis. Days like today are much easier for me if I think my bags will bounce back, and much worse if I’m losing money owning things I don’t even believe in. Don’t let a leverage blowup dictate your long-term views. The future is bright, good things to come, patience is rewarded. 嵐の後

Bullishness in a picture Today marks 1Y for my Substack - very thankful - so I thought I would do something fun which is to use Paint to describe idea in silly picture Note this is specific to BTC/commodities and not overall risk (re: equities), and there can be gyrations in/out so path dependency is not (and usually never) clean If you like words, continue reading: There was initially a very wide range of outcomes over the last 6-8 wks wrt growth/inflation in determining where we are in the a) credit cycle and b) business cycle. Post-FOMC, this range has condensed into one road which is the Powell route Unless challenged by conflicting data (the bar for bad data now is much higher now in what “prevents” a cut from taking place; revision downward of job break even rate) and what is already resembling an increasingly aggressive Fed, there needs to be a sharp catalyst to undermine what has already been an asset that have seen some modest supply-challenges already (BTC) There are simply many ways to win: liquidity up, risk up, long end blowing off on sluggishness / inflation concerns. BTC may not be the best pointed bet for any 1 specific lever, but it is the best merged coefficient all-in The main risk here is whether or not spec capital has foregone crypto to pursue non-crypto assets. And my answer is that while possible, the emergence of TCos has created a cleaner link b/w corporates and equities for bidding powder, even in such a scenario