Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA@michael_hoerger
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Nov 11, 2024
We're starting to get out 1st glimpse of the shape of the winter wave.
🔸Expected transmission a month from now: 1.3 million daily infections
🔸Best-case: 0.7 million daily infections
🔸Worst-case: 1.8 million daily infections
There's nothing in the data yet to suggest the winter will be markedly different from last year, which is very bad news. Within 3 weeks, we'll have a much better sense of what path we're on and what the peak of the wave may look like, likely around NYE.
Info for new readers:
For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data
The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical (median) levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.
Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…
Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 10-11 at the above link.
