Slice of Insight

One of the problems with AI is how it has been marketed. The hype and marketing has been built around “it is so good that it will replace most jobs”. These tech CEOs that get interviewed and do a deep dive on how their latest models outperform humans in most tasks is not the best marketing strategy. The cigarette companies when starting out never began their marketing campaigns with how it will give you lung cancer. Steve Jobs was the master in marketing and launching new tech. I wished he was alive to deliver its value in marketing campaigns.

The Wall Street Journal reports that 'the only thing growing faster than the artificial-intelligence industry may be Americans’ negative feelings about it', and that the 'rebellion' against artificial intelligence is 'gaining steam'.

This is what I’ve experienced: 1. Corporations are adding AI but management and personnel do not know how to fully use it. 2. If Copilot is the adopted AI, it is limited compared to Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini. 3. Most people aren’t using the paid versions which are superior. 4. Companies have strict policies regarding using company information on the better platforms (Claude, etc.) limiting capabilities. 5. The gap between power users within corporations and casual users will widen the skill gap. The power users are silent because they are getting ahead and don’t want to be the designated trainer without the extra pay.

89% of leaders say AI has not improved their company's labor productivity, despite widespread adoption, per Gallup.

@spectatorindex It’s not happening. Iran is already getting sanctions lifted. We’ve ran out of options and continued strikes are just rhetoric not realistic.

BREAKING: The New York Times reports the US and Israel are making preparations for possible resumption of attacks against Iran as early as this week

Trump is sending the message he’s been sending for months. The message is all rhetoric and limited action. He is stuck. The window for rhetoric will be drawing to a close as the energy shortfalls hit home here in the USA. He will find an off ramp. Unfortunately it will include Iran continuing enrichment and collecting some type of money for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It will be spun as “to help rebuild their infrastructure” but it will be permanent.

Trump is sending a clear message: The war is NOT over The next shock is coming, Including to the world economy See new post at Escalation Trap

If I would have told somebody who lived in Ohio back in 2021 that there will be a provision in 2026 that would have eliminated property taxes in the state but it did not get enough signatures to get on a ballot and Amy Acton received enough votes that same year to become governor nobody would have believed me.

@chrismartenson I still think there is a strong possibility China gets Hormuz opened up sooner than later if no deal is done. It will help ease the oil crunch but damaging to the USA image.

Oil executives, analysts, major banks, and even Reuters are now all reporting the same thing: the full impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure has not yet been felt, and it's coming. Expect major price spikes in energy right as the summer driving season is starting and inventory buffers are running out. Folks - this is serious, and you need to be prepared. Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/hypijghskq

@StealthQE4 I stand corrected. I’m surprised the market actually finished down today.

@StealthQE4 The markets will finish up Friday afternoon. Oil will still trade around $100. The system has been disconnected from reality for a long time. This spectacle is just showing how ridiculous it is.

Big leg down in futes:

@GasBuddyGuy What does diesel look like in June if the Strait of Hormuz is still shut?

The national average for diesel appears to be near a (short term?) plateau, $5.662/gal- just 15c/gal away from a new record- it may inch lower this weekend as Great Lakes states see diesel easing. But another attempt could happen again down the road…

China would show the world a big flex if The Strait of Hormuz opens after the Summit. It would look terrible for the US but ironically at the same time delay an oil crisis. This is something I am watching for in the coming days. If it opens, what did we surrender?

@DonMiami3 Here is the math: 1 million barrels of oil being released daily = stocks at all time highs and crude trading around $100 barrel.

Current run rate is over a million barrels being released daily from the SPR and accelerating… Do the math.

The stock markets are ignoring this and so is the price of crude. This means the main players including our government are still seeing this as temporary. The ball was supposed to drop by now with almost 3 months for the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Either people are panicking for nothing or top officials and traders are completely arrogant.

Nearly half of the crude oil released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being exported, a fresh sign of how severely global supplies have tightened amid the Iran war, per Bloomberg.

What if he comes home with a “deal” because China flexed behind closed doors? The Strait of Hormuz slowly opens and there are concessions made that impact us long term including Iran being able to control the traffic and have nuclear enrichment in “x” years. Stocks shoot to the moon like he says but the benefit of a rebounding stock market does not impact most people in this country who will be paying higher for gas in Q3 and Q4 than they did a year ago.

So let’s look forward: We’re getting a breather here because Trump doesn’t want to do anything in Iran before meeting with China. What happens to stocks if he comes home empty handed with the situation in Iran?

@GasBuddyGuy Will it continue to fall if the Strait of Hormuz is still shut down through mid June?

BREAKING: Ohio's average diesel price has hit $6/gal for the first time since July 5, 2022 and is 10c/gal away from reaching a new all-time high. Refinery issues are a primary role- and prices could start falling again soon but could hit a new record first.

People ridicule Trump when he says things like this but it is working in his favor. The Strait of Hormuz has been shut for almost 3 months and oil is still hovering around $100 a barrel while the stock market is still moving along with a bad inflation report. Nobody wants to bet against his statements.

BREAKING: Trump: As soon as this war is over, which will not be long, you're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof.

The meeting with Xi will show the world where we are. If the blockade ends and a deal is done right around the China meeting happens (or soon thereafter) we are no longer the world’s dominant player. China told us to back down and we did. If we continue on our current path after the China meeting we are officially in this on our own. The only thing stopping it is how much pain the American economy can take.

I honestly don’t see how Trump gets out of this without looking really bad. He’s trapped with no good options. This actually scares me because he doesn’t seem able to control his emotions. I worry he decides to do something out of frustration that is completely irrational

@StealthQE4 Another thought, how high do gas prices have to go before a shift at a part time retail job stops making financial sense to show up for work?

We are two weeks from oil shortages and demand rationing according to Bloomberg. Not months…weeks. Anyone that thinks this oil shortage isn’t a serious immediate crisis is delusional:

@StealthQE4 We could have oil shortages in June with it still trading around $100 and stocks at all time highs. Sounds crazy but it’s possible with these markets.

@unusual_whales Lifting of the US blockade vs. the Strait of Hormuz fully opening are 2 different outcomes. The strait was still closed before the US blockade.

There is a 60% Trump announces the lifting of the US blockade of Hormuz by June 30, per Polymarket: