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Followers - Hope you are having a great week so far. I am sure everyone has heard about #Mario, but wanted to give an update below. Things are changing again out west, with the remnants of Tropical Storm #Mario . Below is my AI discussion, about Tropical Storm Mario and what it means for California’s weather this week: What is Mario, and where is it now? Mario is a tropical storm (previously weakened, then re-strengthened) off the Pacific coast of Mexico, near Baja. It’s not expected to make landfall in California (nor in Baja California) in a strong form. But its remnant moisture (i.e. the leftover atmospheric water, clouds, instability) is being pulled northward toward Southern California and into the Southwest. This is what all the chatter is about. Now, a few weeks ago, we had a similar TS come thru, but it has very limited dynamics. #Mario has more moisture, and it's remnants are headed north, which I showed below. This is why there could be wide spread showers, and T-Storms throughout the week starting tomorrow in #SoCal. What California can expect this week? These maps below project plume(s) of tropical moisture pushing north from off Mexico’s coast, feeding into Southern California and inland toward the Central Valley + Sierra. Heaviest rainfall as of now, is expected in SoCal (coastal, mountains, interior deserts) especially mid-week into Thursday. North of LAC I am looking at. Central California likely gets showers/storms Thursday-Friday; Northern California / the Bay Area could see lighter, more scattered precipitation with higher uncertainty. Here are rough totals the maps + forecast sources suggest: Region Expected Rainfall Southern California (coast, inland SoCal, deserts, mountains) Mostly .50–2 inches in many areas; some pockets could get more where storms linger. Central California (Central Valley, Sierra foothills) Moderately heavy in some spots — likely 0.5-1.5 inches, though uneven. Northern California / Bay Area Lower totals — scattered showers, possibly <0.5-1.0 inch in spots if storms set up. More dry lightning risk than heavy rainfall. (Weather West) Risks and hazards to watch: Flash flooding in urban areas, burn scars, canyons, steep terrain. Even a short, intense storm cell can cause dangerous runoff. Wildfire starts — due to dry lightning, gusty winds, and dry fuels especially in central and northern California or areas with recent fires. Power disruptions possible from storm-winds and lightning (downed trees, etc.). Travel / road hazards: slick roads, visibility issues in heavy rain, possible debris on roads, especially in mountainous regions. Heat & humidity health risk: Hot and muggy conditions can stress vulnerable populations (elderly, very young), especially before the moisture and storms arrive. Now, looking at these models below, #Mario is projected to stay of the coastal waters, but the plume of moisture, is really aimed north of LAC, which I have posted below. Both the Euro AI and the Euro ENS, and showing the plume north of LAC. Something to watch as we get thru the day, if it shifts. In the meantime, I will update everyone on this thread later, but get ready for some scattered showers, and maybe some T-Storms in the #SoCal mountains. I don't expect any hydro-logical issues, but will look at it later today when the PM models come thru. Again, we need any type of rain to suppress lack of rain/monsoonal pattern we had this summer as we transition into the calendar fall. More later..... #California #Mario #larain #Cawx

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