Bill Snebold

Did you have ChatGpt write that? Musk has been saying full autonomous cars would be here in a year for the last decade or more. His predictions are notoriously incorrect. Besides that, he’s just wrong about the constraints. Sure, films and games take a lot of human labor to make, but it’s not the biggest challenge to making great films and games. There are many pretty bad films released each year. Only a far few stand out. Having AI automatically produce a bunch of content won’t magically give is that many more great films. It takes humans with a vision and a story to tell that they haven’t seen before. AI can’t do that because it doesn’t understand what it means to be human.

Elon Musk just put a clock on the entire entertainment industry and almost nobody caught the number. Three years. That is how long he thinks we are from AI generating a full video game from scratch. Not assisting developers. Not speeding up asset creation. The whole thing. Musk: “My guess is that we see the first compelling half hour, pure AI show next year.” Next year. A full thirty-minute show. No actors. No cameras. No crew. No set. No studio. Just a prompt and a compute engine powerful enough to hallucinate an entire reality frame by frame. And that is just passive content. Games are harder because they are interactive. The system cannot just generate a scene and move on. It has to render a living world that reacts to your input in real time. Every frame. Every decision. Every millisecond. Musk: “I say probably we’re maybe three years away from AI does the whole video game.” Right now a AAA game takes five to seven years and half a billion dollars to build. Thousands of people. Armies of artists and engineers grinding through years of crunch just to ship one title. Three years from now a single person types a paragraph and gets something comparable. The entire cost structure of the gaming industry does not slowly erode. It collapses. And it does not stop at games. If AI can generate an interactive world that responds to you in real time it can generate anything. Film. Television. Advertising. Training simulations. Architecture walkthroughs. Every single one of those industries is built on the same constraint. Human beings manually constructing visual experiences one frame at a time. The moment that breaks the economics of every studio on the planet break with it. Musk said next year for shows. Three years for games. That is a countdown not a forecast. The studios bragging about their thousand-person teams right now are advertising the exact thing that is about to become worthless. Headcount is not a flex when the entire production pipeline fits inside a single inference call. And here is the part that should concern every media executive paying attention. When anyone can generate a blockbuster-quality experience from a text prompt you cannot protect your catalog anymore. Franchise value. IP libraries. Decades of accumulated content. All of it loses leverage the moment the audience can generate something custom-built for their exact taste in seconds. Scarcity created the entire business model of Hollywood and the gaming industry. AI is about to flood the market with so much high-quality content that scarcity stops being a factor. The winners on the other side of this are not the companies sitting on old catalogs. They are the ones supplying the raw compute infrastructure to render these worlds for billions of people simultaneously. The content becomes disposable. The compute becomes everything. Musk did not make a casual prediction on that podcast. He told you exactly when the dam breaks. And three years is not a long time when the water is already rising.

People are relying on AI for all sorts of things that they wouldn’t rely on a toddler for. I don’t know how many times I’ve had AI tell me with 100% confidence that the next thing it advises me to do will work, only for it to fail. The only way for things to improve is if the problems are called out.

Senior engineers mocking AI agents for hallucinations is like blaming a toddler for not walking on day one. You don't dismiss potential because it isn't perfect yet.

@atrupar Oh, poor wittle Trump. Boo hoo, his feeling were hurt because someone tried to follow the facts and do their job.

WELKER: Do you think it's appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of a Bronze Star, Purple Heart recipient who served in Vietnam? BESSENT: Neither one of us can understand what has been done to the president and his family WELKER: But is it appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of any American citizen? BESSENT: Give what has been done to President Trump and his family, it is impossible for either of us to understand what he's been through WELKER: So you don't think there's anything wrong with a post saying, 'Good. Robert Mueller's dead'? BESSENT: We should have empathy for what's been done to the president and his family

@chrismartenson 100%! Having the TSA go through our luggage and scan our bodies is a clear violation of the 4th amendment. Right your representatives in congress and tell them you want your liberties restored. Abolish the TSA!

Unpopular opinion: TSA doesn't make flying safer at all, but is a ritual designed to emascualte and demoralize people, conditioning them to obey truly ridiculous rules and orders.

“The left did it”. Sure, when Kirk died and MAGA was lowering the flags to half mast and talking about him like he was some great humanitarian, many on the left pointed out that he was actually kind of a racist and misogynistic asshole. But that’s a far cry from the president of the United States saying that he’s glad someone died. Mueller didn’t hurt anyone. He did his job with integrity, but Trump didn’t like it, so he made a shameful comment.

How is this any better than what the left did to Charlie? Can we agree it's wrong no matter who does it? I didn't support it when the left did it and I don't support it now! They should have held him accountable while he was alive!

@rohanpaul_ai No matter what you do resources are limited, therefore so is abundance. Musk’s thinking always seems to be very shallow on this topic.

Elon Musk: "Things will be free in the future. If you've got an AI or robotics economy that is anywhere close to a million times the size of the current Earth economy, literally any need you possibly want can be met."

@X_G_H_0_S_T_X @ElijahSchaffer So you’d rather just go with the incompetent pedophile that does nothing but cause chaos and misery. Got it.

We were all so stupid

@DH_Greggie @Cynical68181036 @macncheetos @ElijahSchaffer So just because you’re triggered by something someone else says that means you have the right to kill them? Have you ever asked yourself why they might be so angry at us? Maybe we should stop meddling in their affairs.

@Cynical68181036 @macncheetos @ElijahSchaffer If the regime chants death to America. I support and want everyone one of them dead.

@DH_Greggie @ThatGMoney @ElijahSchaffer How would you feel if a foreign power came into the US and overthrew our government?

@ThatGMoney @ElijahSchaffer When I say Iran I mean the regime not the citizens themselves. If it came off that way I apologize.

@DH_Greggie @ElijahSchaffer What do you even mean by “getting rid of Iran?” You mean exterminate all Iranians? Is that how MAGA thinks?

@ElijahSchaffer Getting rid of Iran helps peace on the long run. You understand this right?

@JohnStossel @danieljmitchell I hear conservatives talk about billionaires as if they’re some sort of natural resource that we need to protect. It’s such a weird outlook.

Robert Reich says he wants billionaires to go extinct! That’s economic idiocy. Billionaires get rich by CREATING wealth. They get paid a lot, but still only earn 2% of the value of their companies, economist @danieljmitchell notes. We should want MORE billionaires:

Ok, I never meant to imply that production costs don’t matter, because of course they do, but supply and demand are the main factors. Oil producers often cut production to boost prices. Luxury handbag inventories are kept artificially low the make sure the demand outstrips supply. Honestly, the more I think about it, the less convinced I am about the endless abundance argument. Anything that gets made requires resources even if those resources aren’t labor. This reminds me of the argument some were making in the 1980s and 90s about how people weren’t going to print stuff anymore because of computers. It turned out that people started printing more than ever because they could. I still get a shit ton of paper junk mail to this day. I guess I just don’t see where the limiting factor is for consumption if most everything is dirt cheap and abundant. There’s a big catch in there somewhere that isn’t being talked about.

Well, not really abundance of money but abundance of resource due to productivity boost from AI & robots + zero labor cost. What's there to compete when everyone can basically create abundance of stuff? When you have too much supply - it becomes kind of pointless. It's only competitive when there is scarcity. That said, I think money will still matter for the next 20 years probably since we won't have true abundance for awhile. Even if we move into social capitalism and everyone gets UBI - not everyone can own a $200K sports car. It will simply cover the basics and allow for a comfortable living for everyone. Earlier you said production cost doesn't matter to the market - that's not true. Most of the times a product's cost is determined by the production cost. If the production cost is dirt cheap - many sellers will lower their price. Sure some people can still put up a high price but competition will drive it down. Today many things are expensive is due to their production cost. With AI & robots, production cost will drop drastically so even with small amount of UBI, people will be able to live comfortably. But after 20 years when we have ASI & true abundance with the advancement of science & tech - then money will really become meaningless. But that's far into the future. Whether we'll get there or not is still very much in the air.

I actually think this is a bad thing. Strife and hardship moulds human beings. Difficulty and adversity brings ingenuity and beauty.

I guess I’m confused. First you’re saying that those in power won’t be playing the money game anymore, but then go on to say that AI and robots will generate an abundant amount of money. If money isn’t the point (acquiring as much as possible to live more comfortably) then why is it so important to have an abundance of the stuff? Either we’re still using money to assess what is valuable or not. Is everyone going to be driving a $200,000 sports car if they want to, or will those still be out of reach for most people?

I don't disagree with what you said. But to me, that's only one side of the coin. I don't think every government or corporation is like that. Today it's this way because money is the game - once money is no longer the game, I believe things will evolve into more about status. I just don't see a future where EVERY country starves their citizens and allows 99% people to riot and want to kill them. That is NOT in their best interest. It would be much better for them to give people UBI (especially when AI & robots will generate abundance amount of money for them) and keep us focused on things like entertainment/VR etc. Instead of us focusing on taking them down.

Elon Musk is not a typical person, but if what he’s been doing is to try to get people to like him, he’s doing a really bad job of it. I live in California where there’s a huge market for EVs. I drive down my street and nearly every other house has a Tesla in the driveway. But these days after Musk started going all MAGA, many of these same cars have anti-Musk bumper stickers on them. His product was targeted towards the very people he’s pissing off. As for humans wanting people to like them, sure that is a typical human trait because we are a social species, but I don’t think that applies to the behavior of corporations and nation states. Corporations have a responsibility to their shareholders to increase value. Nations are run by politicians that want the public to like them so they get reelected. But those two aspects fly out the window when you have a population on the dole rather than paying into the system. Even in our current system, politicians say one thing to get elected but are secretly making deal with monied interests to fund their campaigns. AI is making it even harder to tell what’s real vs what elected officials are telling us is real. I’ve been watching a really great video about the Middle East conflicts and history. I knew very well that Powell lied true his teeth about WMDs in Iraq, but the UK also knew it was BS and yet still sent their soldiers to fight and die in an unjustified war. It’s this way in nearly every country. Those in power want to stay in power, and it doesn’t necessarily mean they will do what’s best for the citizens. The laws of countries matter, but those in power and with money often get to play by different rules.

It's very clear to me people play status game all the time. Like I said, Elon Musk the richest man on the planet is still trying to get people to like him and win their approval. Also, I wasn't only talking about governments/countries - I was referring to AI companies & individuals (CEOs) as well. Earlier you seem to think AI companies will have all the power and won't need to care about countries/laws - how come now you think countries matter? Anyway, it's okay if you don't get it and I don't think I can convince you otherwise. Overall I think we'll be fine because there are many players in this game and they will have enough incentive to provide for their own citizens (countries) or to gain status with the people (companies/CEOs). 😼

I don’t get the “status” argument at all. Why would a country want to encourage people from other countries to come to theirs? Bragging rights? If history is any guide, people of a given country can get pretty angry about foreigners infiltrating their country. Especially foreigners that just want to sponge off the government. Resources aren’t unlimited, and they are often unequally distributed across different countries. While I would love to buy into your utopian vision, I’m afraid that I just don’t see things going that smoothly. Advancements in technology always come with unintended consequences. Automobiles allowed humans to travel great distances with ease, but also brought pollution, climate change, and traffic. It’s not hard to imagine what problems AGI and UBI will bring, much less what problems will come that we can’t imagine.

Well, like I said, one incentive would be status. The country that treats its citizens well will gain status in the world. Same can be said about AI companies. If one company pushes back against giving people UBI - they will lose status while the other company that endorses it will gain status. When AI & robots give us abundance of resources - money will no longer be a game we play. We will be playing the status game. Second, build a nation that they want to live in. If you have abundance of resource - would you rather live in a country where 90% of people are starving, angry, rioting? Or would you rather live in a nation where everyone's content, passionate, and thriving? I think most people would prefer the 2nd nation - even the people in the government & AI companies. It's in their own self interest to make the nation as safe & prosperous as possible too.

You really make some lame arguments. I’m fine if the airlines want to enact security measures. As you said, it’s the airlines planes. However, the government has no business going through my bags or scanning my body without probable cause that I’ve committed a crime. That clearly violates the 4th amendment. Get it? They also have no business interfering with my freedom to travel within my own country. But you go ahead and keep waving those rights and licking those boots.

@snebold @MsAvaArmstrong When you "roam" within the country and decide to get on someone else's airplane, train, or bus they have the right to know who you are. Since the gov't is involved in that roaming; so do they. To ensure that identification, they've created w/ the states a uniform Real ID. Get it?

I had to renew my driver's license and went to my local DMV (Department of Motor Vehicle). My husband's was expiring, too, so he was with me. When we tried to find a parking space, we realized it was packed. We finally parked and walked inside. Maine State Police were standing at the door. There had to be 400 illegal aliens in there. Crying babies, women in hijabs, and lots of foreign men. For the first time in my life, I was one of the only white people in the room. Governor Janet Mills is responsible for this. She told the DMV to give drivers licenses to all of these illegal aliens. And, I know why she did this -- so they can vote.

@EvieMiessa @Landeur What I’m saying is exactly that. You can’t use today’s standard and just swap in UBI. My question to you would be: why producers would boost production to meet demand. What’s the incentive?

Yes but you need to take into account that due to AI & robots and the lack of labor cost & time, we will have more supply than ever to meet the demand. It's not going to stay the same as today where we need human labor - which is slow & costly. The market will change drastically to meet the demand. You can't keep using today's standard to measure. You must take into account the changes AI & robots will bring. And how big that change - is really the determine factor.

Actually that’s not how supply and demand works. Things don’t get cheaper simply because they cost less to produce. Things tend to get cheaper when there is less demand for it. So if we give everyone a bunch of money suddenly demand increases and prices increase along with it. Also, there’s only so many fancy houses where people can live. If everyone is being paid the same, who gets to live in them? I believe I heard somewhere that in the US at least roughly half of adults have no real savings. When all human labor becomes worthless and all these adults lose their jobs, that number will be close to 100%. Many of the people who live in very nice houses will face foreclosure and bankruptcy. It’s very unclear to me how this all plays out, but it doesn’t look good.

The thing is, with AI & robots taking all the jobs - it will reduce labor cost to zero. Which is why everything should drop in price and become dirt cheap. You will need very small amount of UBI in order to afford the basic needs so there's no need to print money. It's true if you move to another country, you prolly won't get UBI right away since you're not a citizen. But since everything is now super cheap - your savings should allow you to survive for awhile. Maybe after being a resident for a couple years - they will provide you with UBI. I can also see some countries actually providing you a mini-UBI to entice you to move there. Anyway, there's going to be some major changes coming and we'll have to wait and see how each nation chooses to deal with it. I just don't think it's all doom and gloom. We'll figure it out. 😌

Actually no, that makes no sense. I asked how someone knows just by scanning a room they just entered which people are undocumented and which aren’t. The answer is she couldn’t. She felt uncomfortable with so many non-whites around her and she made an immediate assumption. As far as RealID goes, I consider that program unconstitutional and anti-liberty. I have yet to get one. I’ll just continue to use my passport at the airport. TSA is also unconstitutional by the way. The only reason we are being forced to get a RealID is to travel on commercial airlines within the borders of our own country. If you can afford a private plane or travel across state lines by car you don’t need it. The federal government shouldn’t be asking us to show them our papers to roam within the boarders of own own country. Get it?

@snebold @MsAvaArmstrong Nothing makes me think they're illegal aliens. Just like getting a RealID doesn't make me think that every white, black, Asian, European, and every other race and ethic group who is also required to get a RealID is an illegal alien. Get it?

Hitler and Trump were/are terrible leaders but they were chosen by the people. FDR has been hailed as a great leader, but his administration created the internment camps that unjustly incarcerated Japanese Americans who committed no crimes. In times of stress people will do terrible things to others. If some countries do have UBI, the citizens of other countries won’t be able to just move to the UBI ones. You said that they could afford to move because they have plenty of money due to UBI, but you forgot that the people moving don’t have that money. Besides, where will all those UBI dollars come from? When a government prints money it causes inflation. I think when everyone is given the same amount of money needed for basic survival, the cost of basic survival will go up.

Well, WW2 Germany & today's US under Trump are exceptions I would say. The result of having terrible leaders ..... I would also reiterate that I'm not saying every government will treat their people right. I do believe we have a corrupt US government today and people may suffer. Hopefully this admin will be voted out with a better admin in 2028. I just also believe there will be other countries that will care and provide for their citizens. And those countries will gain status in the world. Countries that do not provide UBI will be looked down upon and people can simply leave. Today people can't leave is mostly due to financial reasons. But if that's no longer a concern, you can move to any country you like. As for value, I don't think we will throw it out completely. AI & robots will cover the basics - but people can still create additional value on top - like making movies, music, sports, videogames etc. We simply will have a basic income to cover the necessities while you can still make additional money by creating what people value. I believe they call it social capitalism. At least that's what I hope to see in the next 20 years or so.