#NYR are off today, so I’ll be using the time to record a new episode of #TheFlyingV podcast. (After I’m done with this workout… #humblebrag 💪)
What’s on our minds this week?
Missiles in Israel. Missiles in UAE. Iran declaring victory, saying they will control Hormuz, enrich Uranium, collect reparations.
Something is not adding up here.
If you are a Masters past champion and have a real chance to win this week (Rahm, Scottie and Rory) how many drinks can you have at the Champions dinner that it won’t effect your play for the week or prep for Wednesday ?
I’m going with 3 glasses of wine and cocktail
@benjamincowen Curious - When the salesman says 'sticker is the best I can offer' do you just say 'ok I guess I'll pay full price' or do you turn around and start to walk away?
Please be better than the others on here...stick to crypto, you're excellent at it.
Negotiating with terrorists isn’t black and white. It’s leverage, pressure, timing, and consequence. What you’re seeing in moments like this isn’t chaos. It’s signaling. It’s about shaping the other side’s decision-making.
These actors don’t respond to goodwill. They study hesitation, test limits, and exploit weakness. No pressure means they push further. Unclear consequences mean they take advantage.
Not every threat gets carried out. But it has to be credible. That’s the point.
This kind of negotiation isn’t about sounding reasonable. It’s about making escalation cost more than restraint. Strong language is often used to prevent conflict, not start it.
Get it wrong and you risk escalation. Remove pressure and you invite it.
The Iranian regime understands only one language. If the cost is not clear, they will test it. If it is clear and credible, they will calculate.
youtube.com/shorts/QxUcd2z…
@cryptsycrackers You have TDS, eh? You're asserting, with no evidence, that he engaged in abuse of children.
I don't care if you don't like Trump, but you're off in conspiracy theory land with that egregious nonsense.
It’s all people with TDS that use “TACO” (Trump always chickens out) as a pejorative.
Have you ever heard of bluffing? Trump has used bluffs his entire career.
But ya never know what’s credible with him when he threatens something or insists on something in deal making… because sometimes he will indeed go further than people are expecting him to.
So if he’s bluffing, and doesn’t follow through with the threat, that’s not chickening out. Because he knew he wouldn’t carry out the threat from the beginning… he just doesn’t want anyone else to know for sure how far he’ll take things. That’s what bluffing means.
For him to “chicken out” he would have to:
1. Have intent to do something, genuinely
2. Not do that thing due to fear or concern that arises
But if he always knew he wasn’t going to do the thing, then he was just bluffing, not chickening out.
And now you know how words work.
All that to say I find it unlikely Trump will destroy all bridges and all power plants in Iran.
But that fact that everyone in the U.S. on the left and the right is taking Trump’s threat seriously shows that he has cultivated the uncertainty around him that he sought to.
He’s happy to look like a mad man to observers so that his opponents will be more likely to capitulate.
@MoonLamboio You act really reasonable until Trump is concerned. He's going to fuck around and someone is going to decide they can't take the chance he's bluffing and start a war on our home soil. Perhaps a nuclear one if our allies(former) turn on us decisively.
@0hour1 I wrote this a bit ago to someone :
8p - Strait opens. 2wk pause on bombings, oil plummets, market surges…until Israel bombs Iran in the next few days and we start all over….
@CryptoMichNL He literally wrote a book how he negotiates & people cannot figure it out because worthless bureaucrats start negotiations at what they want and get less. You start with the insane ask and settle for what you want. These 'experts' probably pay sticker at car dealerships too.
@MarioNawfal I respectfully disagree that Iran's leaders are rational actors, but they want to salvage their infrastructure to continue their terroristic ways. So in that regard most of what you said is the most accurate on X today.
Trump and Iran WILL accept some form of ceasefire/delay tonight, and WILL end the war this month.
Here's why...
What most people don't realize, but the markets know very well: Trump has no choice but to end this war very soon
Simple reason: 'It's the economy stupid'
Trump is not 'insane', as some are saying. He went too far with his posts, but he did the same with Greenland, and with Canada, to name a few
The Trump posting right now is the same Trump that tried hard to end the war in Ukraine, 'ended' the Gaza war (in theory), and credits himself with ending many other wars
The Iran war is a tragic miscalculation: Was meant to be a Venezuela 2.0, but failed miserably
Since then, Trump has abandoned all his initial objectives: Regime change, regime modification, controlling the Strait
When he realized and accepted this new reality, Iran realized how much leverage they have by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and they weren't gonna let that go unless they get concessions that make up for the massive destruction they faced
But here's the reality: Iran doesn't want to keep getting bombed, and Trump doesn't want to crash the global economy
Both parties want to end the war as soon as possible. They are currently going through a process in which each side realizes how much (or little) leverage they have, and what concession they need to make.
Pakistan's request for a 2-week ceasefire likely came at Trump's request, with Iran hinting they will accept it.
The ceasefire decision has already been made by both sides, and we will know about it shortly.
And in relation to the war, I expect the war to end this month.
Both Iran and Trump, no matter what you think of them, are rational actors
@benjamincowen@jackunheard Civilization has multiple meanings. Just like people don't understand "well regulated" meant something completely different in 1791 than it does today.
I’m convinced Trump’s threat to Iran this morning was just a giant IQ test because holy sh*t some of you are dumb.
Yeah guys, Trump is going to kill 90 million people at 8PM tonight.
Use your brains for once.
@benjamincowen@jackunheard Because there's nothing to condemn. Iran has been terrorizing the world for 47yrs. Ending that regime is doing the entire world a favor. This is the only language they understand - and look, they're negotiating to give him exactly what he wants.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif requests a two-week extension of Trump's deadline and a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and to “allow for diplomacy to achieve a conclusive end to the war”