
space_storm
120 posts










JUST IN: Elon Musk says SpaceX could reach $1 trillion revenue in 2030










$ZS — Q3 FY2026 earnings Tuesday May 26. After close. The AI security play the market is underpricing. Options implied: ±7%. MY ESTIMATES vs CONSENSUS: Revenue: My est $855M vs $834.8M consensus. BEAT. +2.4%. Non-GAAP EPS: My est $1.13 vs $1.01 consensus. BEAT. +12%. Net new ARR: ~$162M vs ~$155M consensus. BEAT. Q4 revenue guide: My est $885M+ vs $877M set. RAISE. FY2026 EPS: My est $4.10–4.15 vs $3.99–4.02 current. RAISE. THE ONLY METRIC THAT MATTERS: Organic net new ARR ex-Red Canary. Q2 organic net new ARR: +7% YoY. That is the bear case in one number. If Q3 improves to 12%+: bears get squeezed hard. If it stays at 7%: multiple compression regardless of the beat. This number decides whether ZS is re-accelerating or plateauing. THE CORE THESIS: Every AI agent is a potential attack vector. Traditional perimeter security cannot secure distributed AI workloads. ZScaler's inline Zero Trust can. By design. No architectural alternative. Zero Trust is federally mandated by 2027. DOGE cannot cut mandatory spend. AI security is not discretionary IT spend. It is survival spend. 550 Zero Trust Everywhere customers replacing 15–20 point products each. Platform consolidation at enterprise scale. Switching costs are enormous. BULL CASE: Organic ARR re-accelerates. Zero Trust 700+ customers. Q4 guide raised. FY2027 visibility positive. Re-rates from 10x to 13–15x revenue. Target: $265–310. BEAR CASE: Beat and drop again. Organic ARR stuck at 7%. Microsoft/PANW pricing pressure in renewals. Federal delays hit Q3/Q4. Guide maintained flat. Target: $175–195. MY CALL: BEAT on revenue. BEAT on EPS. Q4 guide raised. At 10x forward revenue for 23%+ growth and 27% FCF margins: ZScaler is the cheapest pure-play AI security stock available. Tuesday proves whether organic growth is recovering. If it is: this stock goes to $265 before summer.






















Market closed today. Go outside. Touch grass. Enjoy the day away from screens.














