@Saladinbraham Duol is another example; you were a genius if you were buying up to $500 but those same people that were cheering paying $500; now call people buying under $100 idiots…🤷♂️ Same as Hims $60-$70 buyers when it dropped to $15; until they were paying $30……🤷♂️
@ValueInvestShow Bro, you don‘t understand man. Adobe is dead company because „reasons“. And Tesla is the future bro. AI here, robots there, you know. Who needs earnings when you can have cool robots 😎
$TSLA Market Cap: 1,250 billion
$ADBE Market Cap: 77 billion
$TSLA 2025 Net Income: 3.8 billion
$ADBE 2025 Net Income: 7.1 billion
So $TSLA is 16x MORE expensive than $ADBE, while seeing declining revenues (yes decling), and generating 1/2 of $ADBE's net income
BUT it's Adobe that is being disrupted, yes
I did a little ranking of stome stocks. From what I think are opportunities and are not.
This is calculated depending of the quality of the business & the current valuation.
What would you change?
$ADBE was really cheap to me at 340$.
Even more attractive at 300$. Then it even dropped to 250$, which I thought was impossible for this quality business.
Now it sits under 200$. Dafuqq??
Literally debating with myself to go into generational debt for this one. 7x Forward P/E, PEG ratio 0.6. Rev Growth 10%ish.
P/FCF 7.6. Even if Rev only grows 5% we still get a 15% CAGR here.
And imagine the possible buybacks over the next quarters.
And now IMAGINE THE BULL CASE scenario.
Idk man.
@Saladinbraham They have a product which is becoming more and more obsolete with better AI image creation / editing functions.
Why would you like to own this stock.
Have you imagined the BEAR case scenario though? Because there is one. I own the stock, with an almost $10k cost basis, so I want to be straight about both cases.
Bull case: They are deferring price hikes to build the freemium funnel, which can be an offensive move. Convert the 850M MAUs later, and pricing power returns. ARR miss is temporary.
Bear case: they can't raise prices anymore without losing users to Canva and AI-native tools. The freemium pivot reframes a competitive constraint as a strategy. That's moat erosion dressed up as a plan.
You cannot tell which is right yet. The deciding data point is Q3 September. If MAU keeps growing and paid conversion doesn't follow, bears start winning.
I'm holding with a clearly defined exit trigger. Not blind conviction. Just waiting for the one number that resolves the debate.
I don‘t think the absence of insider buying is necessarily a bad thing. $ADBE has pretty high SBC so management already gets a lot of shares. But it‘s also not a good sign that they don‘t buy more. So I think neutral about that.
CFO leaving also not that big of a deal. Just bad timing. If you look at his resume he actually stayed with Adbe now for the longest time. So it was „overdue“ for him to look for something new. He is just an employee in the end.
CEO doesn‘t leave the company. He just doesn‘t want to be CEO anymore. He will still be chair.
What GARP actually means:
- Real, durable growth
- Reasonable valuation relative to that growth
- High-quality businesses I’d be happy to own for 5–10+ years waiting for a rerating.
This is why I own $META, $BN, $FOUR, $ADBE, $QLYS, and $CROX.
What does GARP mean to you?
Friendly advice for $ADBE bag holders
When a stock has a 8x P/E you can’t seriously rely on management team outlooks nor the street for EPS guidance
The market is telling you everything you need to know which is your outlook numbers are unreliable at best and we think your capital allocation mix is shit and you are likely a casualty of AI
Easier horses to ride
Draining your mental capital on one losing position for years is absolutely not worth it even if you turn out to be right eventually