Aldie

@Jimbosl75206881 @dennisihong You wouldn’t happen to be like… mid/late 70s?

$BABA will be a trillion dollar company. I just might be 80 years old by then

@GavinSBaker @PythiaR @jukan05 It would create too much awkwardness with the US government. In a free market, they absolutely should do this.

@jukan05 Mostly agree. I do wonder what ASML would do if TSM offered to pay a 50% premium for EUV machines delivered in the next 3 years.

Great insight from @GavinSBaker via TMTB Substack. Hmm… but I’d frame it a bit differently. I don’t think a breakdown in discipline in the foundry market is likely to happen for now. Because we are facing a severe EUV equipment shortage. You said TSMC is the guardian preventing the bubble from bursting, but I would say ASML is the true guardian preventing the bubble from bursting.

@StevenGlinert In reality, the best is not the paid networks but chatting with folks at trade shows, conferences, etc. (Among the standard suspects, haven’t used enough of them to offer a rounded opinion.)

what are the best expert networks that people use these days

@rickyho_1989 I suppose this could be technically correct, but not so sure if you struck ‘leaders’. Then you can argue that it implies they’d be able to continuously predict who the to-be leaders are… while maintaining US tax efficiency.

@speenhamlander Even with much longer time horizons, tech and AI leaders will be leading the pack.

Imagine if Berkshire and Warren Buffett had been more open-minded toward AI and tech investing. With a war chest of that size, the compounding could have been even faster and far bigger.

@fedex774 No, you’re not. AI sleeves of top tech specialist funds are better. They’re just not 100% AI (yet).

Am I the only one who finds the FinX obsession for Leopold Aschenbrenner completely absurd and unjustified?

@MikeFritzell @rickyho_1989 @grok Not an answer to your question here, but China has a weak monopsony around commodities like iron ore.

@rickyho_1989 @grok Do monopsonies in emerging markets tend to be positive for economic growth and the strength of exchange rates?

President Prabowo’s speech was interesting because it revealed both the strengths and weaknesses of the current policy direction. What I dislike is that there still appears to be insufficient discussion around upside inflation risk, fiscal vulnerability, and exchange rate stress if oil prices remain elevated for much longer than the government currently expects. Indonesia remains highly sensitive to energy prices through subsidies, imported inflation, fiscal pressures, and rupiah stability. If oil enters a prolonged higher-price regime, the impact on the budget deficit, subsidy burden, and external balances could become much larger than current assumptions imply. This matters because global conditions are already becoming more difficult. US yields remain high, global liquidity is tightening, and capital is becoming increasingly selective toward emerging markets. In that environment, fiscal credibility and exchange rate management become extremely important. That said, on the positive side, I do think Prabowo understands one of Indonesia’s deepest structural problems: the country’s persistently low tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Indonesia has been blessed with enormous commodity wealth for decades, yet state revenue collection has consistently underperformed relative to the scale of natural resources extracted from the economy. A large part of the issue historically comes from leakages across the commodity ecosystem itself. One major mechanism is underinvoicing. For example, commodity exporters may sell coal, CPO, nickel, or other resources to related offshore trading entities at artificially lower declared prices. The offshore entity then resells the same commodities to final global buyers at the true market price. The profits effectively accumulate offshore rather than domestically, reducing taxable income reported inside Indonesia. Another mechanism often discussed globally is transfer pricing optimization. Large conglomerates with complex cross-border structures can shift profits between subsidiaries across jurisdictions through management fees, financing structures, procurement contracts, intellectual property arrangements, or intra-group commodity transactions. If not monitored carefully, taxable profits inside the producing country become artificially suppressed while profits appear in lower-tax jurisdictions instead. This is not unique to Indonesia. Resource-rich countries globally have struggled with similar issues for decades because commodities naturally involve international pricing, offshore trading hubs, and complicated ownership structures. That is why I can understand the broader strategic logic behind stronger state monitoring over commodity exports and FX flows. Assuming the execution remains disciplined and commercially rational, a stronger state presence could theoretically improve transparency around export proceeds, pricing declarations, royalty collection, and taxable income reporting. In turn, that could potentially increase state revenue available for infrastructure, healthcare, education, and poverty alleviation programs. Similarly, regulations requiring export proceeds to remain domestically within the banking system for a certain period may help stabilize FX liquidity and reduce pressure on the rupiah during periods of external volatility. In many ways, what Prabowo appears to be pursuing resembles a more assertive form of state capitalism where the state attempts to regain greater control over strategic sectors, commodity rents, and capital flows. The challenge, however, is always execution and balance. If implemented professionally with legal certainty, transparency, and predictable rules, stronger oversight could improve fiscal capacity and state effectiveness. But if execution becomes overly interventionist, politicized, or unpredictable, markets may instead interpret it as rising state intrusion and weakening investment freedom. That balance will define if this is a good move or not.

@rickyho_1989 Managing money with a 50-100 year horizon is different from doing it with a 1-10 year horizon. The disagreement may be more with his time horizon.

@speenhamlander Come on tech and AI companies are not trash!

@lexi_trades1 Treasure it.

How would you react if your kids did this to your PS5? 👀👇🏻

@heart_jpg Wow. That’ll do what Ambien cannot!!

The perfect midnight snack

@cremieuxrecueil Strategic and deliberate.

Imagine being the lawyer who fucked up and forgot to pay the patent maintenance fee for OZEMPIC Now, because you didn't pay a $250 fee, your company is going to lose out on BILLIONS.

@wilterings Must be like fried chickens, but pressed into strips

1640 fucking calories for FIVE CHICKEN STRIPS ?!?

@malinvested Decent take

“neoclouds are hard to operate therefore they’re good businesses” try operating a world-scale petrochem complex. if “hard to operate” is our benchmark for business quality, Dow must be the new Coca-Cola

@partners_road How does $5bn equity now do much by 2027? Has to be something u/c?

Alphabet's Google and Blackstone plan to create an AI cloud company to rival CoreWeave using Google's specialized chips. The new co will be launched with $5B in equity capital from Blackstone, which will be the maj owner & aims to bring a certain amt of capacity online in ‘27.

@negligible_cap Coreweave is also able to invite customers to F1 events… probably worth it

$IREN has the sphere, $CRWV has an F-1 car Given their concentrated customer base this feels like they’re marketing their stock instead of marketing their businesses. Terrible use of capital

@pov_husband Talk to your doctor about potentially taking a lower dose of WeGovy or ZepBound (GLPs). You don’t need to titrate up to the full dose for the liver benefit.

I recently found out that I have a fatty liver. I've been pretty healthy my whole life so this news sort of hit me different. Especially after becoming a dad, the thought of my own mortality has been on my mind a lot lately. But at least for now it's time to eat less red meat, less sugars, and add more exercise, as well as focus on more antioxidant rich foods. If you're a parent you know how hard dieting can be. With the daily chaos, really the only thing you can look forward to is a delicious meal and exercising is also out the window some days. But now it's time to start making small adjustments.

@MikeFritzell Any beaten up names that you’d consider unique 10+ year holds?

Honestly, with a stock like Mark Dynamics MARK IJ, 20% seems reasonable (~10% underlying growth plus 8% dividend yield), with some multiple expansion

Dario’s worldview of high GDP alongside high unemployment can persist for decades without too much societal upheaval, as Gulf states demonstrate. Their enormous oil-driven GDP coexists with high structural unemployment among citizens, a tension managed by redistributing oil revenues directly to the population.

@buccocapital This is a decent product if the highlighting is easy to use, and they need to lower the weight and raise the friction of the bookmark so it’s hard to slip out. The folks dumping on this aren’t hardcore enough about reading. The only correct dunk on it is the TAM though. 🤷🏻‍♂️

There’s nothing to reinvent. You pick up a book. You read the book. What are we doing here? Stop it

@chefsevenn Rice. Obvious.

Would you eat it with rice or noodles?