Spīn Ghar
228 posts

Spīn Ghar
@Spin_Ghar
Good deeds should be done with intention, not for attention










💻

BREAKING: Chen Zhi has been filmed under custody during his arrest and deportation from Cambodia to China. The video shows Chen escorted by authorities following the revocation of his Cambodian nationality and his handover to Chinese law enforcement. This is the first visual confirmation of the arrest and transfer.






Did nibble on a little bit of $HYPE spot of course, under $34. Not a big position. Its 20% of what I'd like to fill in total. The reason the position size is smaller is bc we are obviously in a downtrend and bottoms can take a while to find or go deeper than we think although ultimately I would like the $28 area which I think is quite a high probability with it's current market structure. It is possible to get some assistance as there's a lot in the unstaking queue but we will see how much of that actually gets sold. maybe it's only 1/3rd, or 1/4 and the rest gets staked again. idk that is where I'd load up the truck if given the opportunity as I think that would be a good long term value buy atm, everything is in a downtrend and making lower highs which is the more important context of our market when thinking about the current risks. there is a lot of broken market structure out there. So overall, just being patient, and going slow with things. the biggest issue i've seen is people oversizing or trying to call a bottom every day and underestimating the risks post collapse last week and for me, especially after my eth escape this week and getting burnt a little on going outside my rules last friday and getting lucky with that bounce i am just playing a bit more defensive

Bitcoin was a brilliant idea… and Michael Saylor abused it and helped destroy it. Once upon a time: open architecture. Censorship resistant. Decentralized. A monetary operating system that belongs to no one and serves everyone. Which is exactly why what Saylor turned it into is so perverse. He never adopted Bitcoin. He weaponized it. He needed a narrative vehicle to turn a dying software company into a highly leveraged financial construct. Bitcoin was the perfect choice. Bitcoiners wanted a hero. They cheer for anyone who pumps their bags. Could be a child abuser… as long as he is pro Bitcoin, the crowd will scream yay. Saylor needed that crowd to pump his worthless MSTR equity. It was the perfect symbiosis of ideology and greed. And the hardcore Bitcoiners applauded. Not because of analysis, not because of logic, but because any pump is welcome as long as their own bags go up. Saylor became a messiah not because he understood something others didn’t, but because he was willing to take more risk than anyone else… and pump their bags in the process. The show started in 2020… and peaked with the ETFs in 2023 and 2024. The exact mechanism Bitcoin was designed to eliminate reappeared: a single actor building a pyramidal vehicle that stays afloat only as long as new capital flows in. And the community cheered until the roof began to cave in. MicroStrategy is not adoption. It is a Ponzi structure disguised as corporate innovation. Fake terms repeated by the financially illiterate: Bitcoin Yield… really means: “You’re overpaying for Bitcoin when you buy my stock.” P E ratios based on the balance sheet… really means: “Unrealized gains that will never be realized.” STRC stable stock… really means: “A Ponzi wrapper where I create new share classes to pay off earlier investors.” Every new convertible issuance, every new leverage layer, every new mNAV trick is another floor Saylor builds on collapsing foundations. Strategy is a Ponzi. New investors pay old investors. Doesn’t matter if the payout happens through newly issued shares under different names… the system is identical. No utility, only capital transfer. His invented metrics and financial acrobatics serve one purpose: keep the story alive long enough until the market cuts off the credit line. And that is exactly what’s happening now. Saylor promotes an mNAV around 1.20 to 1.22 for MicroStrategy. Supposedly proving MSTR deserves a valuation premium over the underlying Bitcoin. In reality, this figure is a carefully fabricated fairytale. The only numbers with any integrity are 0.99 basic and 1.10 diluted. Everything above that is cosmetic accounting. The fundamental flaw: Saylor uses Enterprise Value as the base. That is methodologically wrong and economically misleading… and he does it deliberately. Why EV based mNAV is worthless: Enterprise Value is a metric salad that makes sense for valuing operating companies under normal conditions. MSTR is not an operating company in any meaningful sense. It is a highly leveraged Bitcoin vehicle with negligible real cash flow. EV includes: • Market cap • Debt • minus cash Saylor mixes operating valuation logic with balance sheet Bitcoin holdings. The result is an artificially inflated metric that has no fundamental justification. The outcome: mNAV appears elevated. Investors are misled into thinking the stock is systematically undervalued. It is not. The numbers that matter: Basic mNAV 0.99. This is present reality. Per dollar of Bitcoin on the balance sheet, you get roughly one dollar of value in the stock. No premium. No discount. It reflects current real shareholders. For dividends or capital returns, this is the only figure that counts. If tomorrow there is a buyback, a special dividend, or any capital return, only the current capital structure matters. Not hypothetical dilution. Not EV cosmetics. The real owner’s view is basic. Diluted mNAV 1.10. This is the future reality assuming all dilution and all convertible notes turn into equity. It is the relevant metric for liquidation. And liquidation will come. All leveraged hype vehicles end in liquidation. Not today, but eventually. MSTR is a debt fueled construction built during the era of cheap money and now forced into perpetual refinancing. Saylor knows the story lives or dies with the illusion that MSTR deserves to trade above its Bitcoin value. Hence the creative mNAV fiction. The irony could not be greater: Bitcoin, a system designed to eliminate the need for trust, was turned by Saylor into a cult object dependent entirely on trust in him. Bitcoiners who celebrate every corporate announcement as long as it pumps their bags don’t see that they became part of a game that has nothing to do with Bitcoin’s original vision. Now the structure is cracking. And it will drag down everyone who believed corporate leverage was the future. Whether Bitcoin survives this is uncertain in my view. The price targets Saylor planted in the collective mind are laughable. The fantasy of building a monetary standard through infinite leverage is even more absurd. mNAV 1.20 is a fair-weather illusion. Reality is 0.99 and 1.10. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling narrative, not analysis. MSTR will go to zero. And Bitcoin? See you at 1000 USD.









