Rob Spivey

155 posts

Rob Spivey

Rob Spivey

@spiveyvalens

As-reported financial metrics are broken. Financial research has serious alignment issues. We want to fix those issues, and won't stop until we do.

Katılım Nisan 2022
110 Takip Edilen207 Takipçiler
Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
I'm excited to be speaking at the 2026 @Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting in Las Vegas this September! I'll be joined by an incredible lineup of analysts, editors, and guest speakers covering everything from global markets and emerging technologies to alternative investments and the biggest trends shaping wealth today. You're invited to join us! Register at: sbry.media/3PRxQdG 📌 September 28-30th at the ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
I'll be joining the lineup at the @Stansberry Alliance Conference 2026, and if you're serious about protecting and growing your wealth in the years ahead, this is one event you shouldn't miss. 📌 September 28-30th at the Aria in Las Vegas 🔗 Register: sbry.media/3PRxQdG
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Stansberry Research
Stansberry Research@Stansberry·
AI data centers and chip factories need electricity 24/7, but the U.S. power grid is already under pressure. On Top Stocks, Rob Spivey of @GetAltimetry breaks down why baseload power demand is exploding by nearly 180 gigawatts, and why the companies providing this infrastructure could be some of the smartest hidden AI investments. 📹: youtube.com/watch?v=Mj_9rT…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Everyday...the show Silicon Valley is shown more to be a visionary view of the world, and not a satire...I bet someone pitched this in the writers room and got laughed out of the room as it being too absurd
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Yesterday I was able to get Joel on camera to really dive into why we're so in love with momentum investing right now at Altimetry (it has a lot to do with what Joel learned over the years from Richard Driehaus). youtu.be/Udjp1eDFJIw?si…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
@KobeissiLetter We talked about this recently on our Altimetry Authority show. Not for nothing, but if you look over history it’s one of the strongest indicators out there for future civil unrest. It also, in a backwards way, is a reason to be long the market… youtu.be/d8vyJ9kLqQs?si…
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Shocking stat of the day: The unemployment rate for men aged 16–24 with a bachelor’s degree or higher and not enrolled in school jumped to 13.8% in August, the highest since June 2020. This figure has DOUBLED in just 4 months. Over the last 40 years, there have been only a few times when this percentage was higher, including 2001 and 2008. By comparison, the unemployment rate for women rose to 7.1% last month, in-line with historical levels. Meanwhile, the overall youth unemployment rate hit 10.5%, the highest in 9 years outside the 2020–2021 pandemic. Young men are being hit hardest in the labor market slowdown.
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
JNJ has really smart lawyers. If you think the Kenvue spin-off was not partly about the looming concerns about potential legal exposure for over the counter products (already baby powder, and there were discussions on the Tylenol stuff for awhile), you are missing a key part of the puzzle for why spin-offs like this happen. The big question is going to be if any lawsuits can pierce through the spin-off, like they did to an extent with baby powder, and go after JNJ. Or if the lawsuits stay at Kenvue. wsj.com/health/pharma/…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
@RihardJarc This is exactly right. There are two key things about this race the companies running it understand: 1) it has the potential to be winner take all at the destination, so getting there first is essential 2) they’re all cash flow machine businesses, so they’ve got cash to spare…
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
You can see from the nuance that Zuck thinks we are in an AI CapEx bubble. But since this is a race & $META is one of the most financially stable ones in this race, they are willing to push the race further for competitors to fail, even if it means $META overspend a few $100B.
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
It feels like 2008 for new grads trying to get a job…and that should worry the Fed. But interestingly it shouldn’t be as concerning for investors youtube.com/watch?v=d8vyJ9…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
When Howard Marks speaks, even Warren Buffett listens. And Marks just listed all the reasons why he knows what you should do next in this market. We caught up on that, and why our data confirms his outlook... youtu.be/1ew-Ju_SLGQ?si…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Do you want to see a guy with a shaky camera explain how next year's midterm election results might come down to how successful we are at building power plants in the next 12 months? Tune in for today's Altimetry Authority... youtu.be/YL4f1yYcLlY?si…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Of all the big 5 hyperscalers, Oracle is the one that feels most like "software company -> datacenter REIT." Feels like very limited obvious potential (maybe some potential to sell some of the old BEA Systems middle ware style products?) to push data center space rental into value added product upsells (like Microsoft can and Alphabet can), or to otherwise drive unique monetization strategies. Just a ton of capital invested to grow significantly lower grosss margin and lower ROA (cost of capital at the end of the day) revenue. Promising a bunch more of that business doesn't feel like something that should add $250bn (an AMD, or a Salesforce, or an IBM's worth...) to market cap
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Raging Capital Ventures
Raging Capital Ventures@RagingVentures·
Have been on the wrong side of $ORCL, even with some adept trading. Shocked to see the move today, reminds me of 1999. Kudos to Ellison, although I am skeptical of the revenue quality of the AI cloud bookings. After all, it seems like Satya $MSFT walked away from the OpenAI opp. Also, $ORCL’s balance sheet isn’t great and the business has significant capex needs. Will Ellison come to market to raise money or use his currency in other ways?
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
@MattWeinschenk cut interest rates aggressively -> risk on -> buy small caps which are the definition of pro-cyclical
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Matt Weinschenk
Matt Weinschenk@MattWeinschenk·
As huge tech stocks have dominated the market in recent years, small caps have gotten clobbered. Our experts have watched this trend with bated breath. Today, small caps look out of favor and deliciously cheap... but the turning point simply hasn't come. It's not the end of the megacaps' bull run yet. But August shows small caps finally gaining some ground... $SPY $IWM
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Sam Altman's off-hand remarks about an AI bubble didn't feel so casual to Peter Thiel and Palantir when it sent PLTR stock into a tailspin. Find out whether Joel and I think its a buying opportunity, or if there's another shoe to drop. youtu.be/XrDiVFHpX8c?si…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Sam Altman sent AI stocks into a tailspin in August calling the AI boom a bubble… The reality is it felt more like his Greenspan “irrational exuberance” moment (which was 4 years early for calling the tech bubble), not a market top. youtu.be/R86M7txGGHA
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
“Rob, when did you truly just how much massive swaths of the investing public believe stocks are not investments, they are gambling vehicles?” Well…let me tell you a little story cmegroup.com/media-room/pre…
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kailashridgecapital
kailashridgecapital@kailashcapital·
New Sydney Sweeney ad campaign went viral, this made me take a close look at $AEO — and the findings surprised me. Technical setup: The stock has been in Stage 1 consolidation after a long Stage 4 decline. This base formation often precedes a breakout — it just needed a catalyst. This campaign could be it. Valuation is cheap: Trading at ~12x P/E, 0.7x EV/Sales, and still widely unloved by analysts (mostly “HOLD”). Contrarian setups like these often outperform when sentiment flips. Massive free exposure: The campaign sent Google searches for “American Eagle” up 4x. Regardless of the controversy, brand familiarity like this is priceless in retail. There are two sides to the debate, I won't take a side — but as an investor, any publicity that boosts brand awareness and drives traffic is ultimately a positive catalyst. I am not here to judge, I am here to make money Fundamentals improving: Revenue growth has been soft recently, but margins remain healthy (30–40%) and cost efficiencies are already in place. This means any meaningful pickup in sales — even modest — could drop straight to the bottom line, driving outsized earnings growth and re-rating the stock higher. At the end, it is still a founder led business with skin in the game Sometimes it’s rare to see cheap fundamentals + viral catalyst + constructive technicals line up. $AEO might just have that trifecta now. At these valuations (~12x P/E, 0.7x EV/Sales), risk-reward skews positive — downside seems limited while upside from even a small sales rebound could be significant I have taken position in $AEO, not because Sydney is hot but the fundamentals and technicals are hot
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
Syndey Sweeney isn't turning American Eagle (AEO) into a meme stock. She's just making people start to pay attention to the fact that AEO stock is actually cheap youtube.com/watch?v=Oc-4G-…
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Rob Spivey
Rob Spivey@spiveyvalens·
@dnystedt 4 months ago we broke down how Apple's $500 billion "commitment" was a joke (even if its about them asking other people to spend it). Guess what, $600 billion is a joke too. It's a headline for Trump's sake, its not ever going to be reality. youtu.be/5mP9K3e4M3o?si…
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Dan Nystedt
Dan Nystedt@dnystedt·
Apple’s $600 billion US manufacturing plan highlights semiconductors: Apple will work with Texas Instruments to install chip production tools in Lehi, Utah and build a new facility in Sherman, Texas, with equipment from US giant Applied Materials; silicon wafers from GlobalWafers (Sherman, Texas facility); and silicon from Corning, Apple said. 1/5 $AAPL $TXN $AMAT $GLW #semiconductors
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