Magdi Jacobs@magi_jay
I've switched up my own strategy on Maine, though the structure of my consequentialist calculus remains the same. I am focussed on winning the midterms and flipping the Senate, which requires harm prevention. My calculus has shifted b/c the data has shifted.
So what's my conclusion now? Beat Platner up now. Nothing we can do compares to what the GOP has on the guy. The primary isn't over yet and there are other candidates.
Now, typically, I'd follow the path that some national Dems are taking. That's what I did with Fetterman. "Time to stop infighting & focus on the general."
There are important differences. The Oppo on Fetterman was known. He'd been in government for a while. So, basically, once he was the nominee, his major liability would have been intra-party fighting/depression.
Platner is different. The GOP has stuff on him, first of all. Second, even publicly available info hasn't been published. I went through his reddit. It's not good.
So, if the GOP is going to kick the shit out of him anyway, no sense on us being timid now. There's the long-shot chance of him losing the primary. Less of a long-shot given Maine, but still a long-shot.
But even if you have a slight acceptance of that fact--that he will very likely win the primary--there is STILL no reason for our own party to not go hard on him now GIVEN the GOP is going to do it anyway.
This isn't a situation where we have to tamp down on depression/discord because those emotions are the ONE factor that could harm candidate whose past is *already ready well-known*. This is a situation where the candidate's past is NOT well-known to the public, but IS well-known to the GOP.
That changes strategic thinking significantly. If there is Oppo, you get ahead of the Oppo. If the GOP is planning strategic dumps--you get ahead of those strategic dumps.
Oppo released in June is less politically devastating for the party as a whole than Oppo released in September. Oppo released in September means the party has been behind the guy--very publicly so--and then the whole party has to answer for him.
Imagine Jon Ossoff in Georgia, being asked endless questions about Graham Platner in Maine. In October.
It's not just about flipping/not-flipping Maine. It's about protecting other seats and candidates.
Take the long-shot & try to change the outcome in Maine. Don't sit on your hands & think, "Will this hurt the party?" It's not about tamping down depression/discord. It's about this and this alone: You can't protect this man.
You can't keep his secrets. Not if they're already known to the GOP. Own the info first. Take that power away from them. Get it out there so it's not an "October Surprise."
Pummel Platner early so everything has less salience in the fall. Take the long-shot on the primary. Then quarantine the race. So Jon Ossoff & others don't have to answer for this man at a time when his issues could hurt THEIR races.
Feel free to disagree. You know how my calculus works. You know it evolves with incoming data. Make your arguments.
As I have stated: my goal is to win the midterms and, very hopefully, to flip the Senate. A few days ago, I was viewing Platner through too much of a Fetterman-lens. "Don't be grumpy, just move on." But the cases are too dissimilar to warrant that at this point. Particularly given there's still a primary.
