Scott Seidel

So refreshing to see a financial advisor who actually understands new technology without getting lost in the hype. Calm, data-driven analysis explaining what’s really happening with rates and the economy instead of the usual “AI changes everything” narrative. No finance-bro hype.

@EricWHickman Congrats!! This is awesome press, I remember when you wrote this 👏

I'm four months late in noticing this but I got a nice quote in Barron' s back in November. What I was worried about then is unfolding now with inflation surging again. The Fed was playing with fire cutting without data assurance of a recession with an output surplus. "Lore" alone was steering the ship into the last rate cut. Should Interest Rates Be Higher? A Rules-Based Approach to Policy Says Yes. barrons.com/articles/inter… via @BarronsOnline

Juno update: The validator set is now the top 25 by consensus vote. Validators outside the top 25, including ShapeShift, are inactive. If you're delegated to one, please unbond or redelegate your $JUNO. TaxiStake operated this validator, thanks for your support!

@EricWHickman How much lag do you think there is between tariff implementation and goods CPI? Is it possible we’re still in an inventory-absorption phase, with high inventories keeping prices lower?

On today's CPI: I've long felt that this recent surge in inflation was driven by economic improvement and not tariffs. Inflation is correlated to the real economy more than appreciated. My thinking got a boost today from CPI showing core goods inflation slowing back to near 0% (over the last 3 months). How is this inflation from tariffs if goods inflation is so low?

No. Powell said “if we resume cutting at some point—we will at some point” in the press conference, suggesting in his mind, the Fed is paused for at least awhile. There are only a few doves on the committee, Miran, Waller, Bowman, and maybe Daly, maybe Williams. Everyone else we’ve heard from has been working towards a pause since September (per Nick’s article). Collins and Bostic have explicitly said they don’t want to cut until inflation turns back around. The Taylor rule suggests they shouldn’t cut again (until unemployment reaches 4.9%). The idea that the Fed has an easing bias is an invention by those hoping for one. The labor market has seemingly stabilized since the summer (Chi Fed unemployment forecast), up to date claims show no labor deterioration, the consumer is spending at about 1.8% real (3mo. ann using CART data using Sep and Oct), and 60% of the cpi (core services) has risen at 3.9% annualized over the last 3 months, not from tariffs. You are right the Fed has not changed their tune, it has been predominantly hawkish for months.

Very cool and informative. I love the data driven approach. I’m a total follower of Lantern Capital and the LDEI! Keep it coming!

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TaxiStake has supported Neutron from the beginning during ICS and is excited for this next chapter. We’ll be back validating as soon as the active set allows — stay tuned! ⚛️🚕 #Neutron #Cosmos

Discover why @Arkeonetwork matters in today's world! Learn how decentralized blockchain data contributes to the security and censorship-resistance of blockchain networks. Read the full article: taxistake.com/v2/articles/wh…

Thrilled to launch @Arkeonetwork as a genesis validator! We’re proud to advance censorship-resistant blockchain data. Grateful to @ShapeShift and the Arkeo community. 🦊 We love Cosmos!

@Kaldun_pl @Acyn His little tikes suit matched his temper tantrum perfectly!

@Acyn Suit:

Brian Glenn: Why don’t you wear a suit?!? Do you own a suit?

The Democrat to Republican first year curse. In four of the five times that Republican administrations have taken over for Democratic ones since The Great Depression, the new administration had a recession in their first year. New post on my website, lanterncapital.com/the-democrat-t…

This is fascinating! The Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI) will definitely be part of my financial tool belt when it comes to rates and inflation. I also love that it’s daily!

This is so fascinating! Like many, I had always assumed the 12 districts would be equal. Great data and paper!"

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Dear Supreme Court, Please uphold our current belief that no one is above the law. Otherwise, please stand down and refer all questions to the acting Monarch, King Biden. #WTF #Democracy #Vote #DoBetter

I remember when I was growing up, all political leaders were my parents' age. Now that I'm an adult, the political leaders are my parents' age. #TermLimitsEverywhere

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This is a very interesting and informative post. I have heard the comparison of today versus 1970, and this really helped explain how they are similar but yet so different.

With the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating, there is concern of wider war. War is inflationary, but Treasury yields don’t necessarily rise during them because there are often bigger forces at play such as the business cycle, secular trends in inflation, or yield curve control.