Eric Hickman

@TheStalwart Japan's yields should be going up, they are just normalizing after secular stagnation.

Japanese 30-year yields just keeps going higher

Japan broke 25 years of secular stagnation six years ago. The "global bond rout" is yields catching up to the economy. Not a fiscal crisis. Chart I haven't seen anywhere else, from today's daily commentary.

@TheStalwart From my indicator, which averages the the 8 highest profile labor indicators together, it's steady as she goes. Labor has been improving linearly for 8 months.

The last few weeks of data, while not extreme or particularly rapid, have all shown the same thing, of a labor market that's re-accelerating

@NicoleGoodkind Didn't know that!

Thank you LLM for teaching me something today.

Why are rates rising? Not fiscal. Not Iran. The market is backing out last year's recession scare because the nominal economy is strong. That's it. Where yields fell most, they're rising most now.

The consensus is reaching for AI to explain the cycle's resilience. Stocks higher through every shock for years. But AI's contribution to nominal GDP runs 0.7% on average vs the deficit's 6.1%. At any plausible multiplier, the deficit dwarfs AI. The deficit was there first. lanterncapital.com/ai-isnt-carryi…

@adamtaggart Looks like you had some game.

Stumbled across this old picture of toothpick-armed me and one of my friends, both age 15, dreaming of getting swole Goes a long way to explaining why I didn't get much action dating-wise in high school... Gotta love the tube socks, though!

On jobs day, it is a custom of our industry that everyone has to have a micro take on the number to swing it more in their preferred direction. Narrative fill. Take it on its face and combine it with the rest of labor data is plenty. Labor has been improving for 7 months.

@nfergus Arcs aren’t endemic, we create them.

"I have long doubted that history has an arc, any more than it follows predictable cycles. Perhaps this is true of the moral universe; God alone knows. But I don’t think it’s true of human history. The path of the past is not an arc. It is non-linear, at times jagged like an electrocardiogram, at times flat as a pancake. It doesn’t bend towards anything. What history has in abundance are not arcs but arches."

@greg_ip Well the two aren't month to month like that.

April's jobs report not at all consistent with the idea that breakeven job growth has plummeted to around zero. We got 115,000 new payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate went UP, from 4.26% to 4.34%.

@Claudia_Sahm Yeah but the poor man has worked his whole life under stress.

Claude, help me design a campaign to get Powell to stay for his full Fed term until 2028. 👇

Yeah, thank you I was beginning to think about how that would work, him being an outlier every meeting. But also, it seems like the economy would pay for any undue accomodation on the on the long-end if a cut weren't economically justified, Trump needs to know this. I think Warsh better give up the act and be a real Fed chair, not a hired gun. I think the committee will turn on him if he doesn't. He's not starting in a good place with his history either.

"“This is not normal [a reaction to the party-line committee vote] is going to be a theme,” Sahm told Fortune. “Frankly, it could be a theme for Warsh’s tenure as Fed chair.” fortune.com/2026/04/30/kev…

@adamtaggart @jobooand @SantiagoAuFund Yes, exactly, it is Iran v. the world on this one and I think a big reason my financial markets have already dismissed it.

I should have said this during the interview, but IMO, I don't think China or Russia wants Iran to have nukes I don't think they trust Iran not to use it either One of several reasons why I think they are both pretty much watching the current war from the sidelines and not intervening militarily

Always love the way @SantiagoAuFund works his way through a delicate conversation. Quick question if China benefits from Iran having a nuclear weapon what stops them from just giving them some nukes? Or do they want Iran’s energy but also don’t want them to have nukes?

@DannyDayan5 Thank you Danny!

@EricWHickman Great stuff!

The economy is simply on fire. -Claims lowest of cycle, 2nd lowest since 1969. -ECI shows wages accelerating. -Core PCE deflator (pre war) hottest since 2023. -Nominal GDP very strong If anyone you follow is still talking rate cuts, fire them.

@ThinkFinance999 @DannyDayan5 The dollar is at fair value, not weak in any way.

@DannyDayan5 The USD is weirdly weak, though, especially when Europe is in a sorry state yet discounting 3 rate hikes.

The LDEI made a new 1-year high today. Be very wary of the perma-bears telling you the economy is weak. It isn't in any meaningful way and Powell said the same yesterday. lanterncapital.com/ldei/

@CNBCTheExchange @Claudia_Sahm @KellyCNBC My Powell tribute this morning, x.com/EricWHickman/s…

There's a lot to praise in Powell's leadership at the Fed and a lot to improve upon, Century Advisors' Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) says. cc:@KellyCNBC cnb.cx/4uDif07

@GitaGopinath I agree, my tribute piece this morning, x.com/EricWHickman/s…

I hope Powell stays on the FOMC till the end of his term in 2028.

@SullyCNBC "lost control"? Please, let them dissent, it shows as he said, the center moving more hawkishly.

WOW 4 Fed governors dissenting. Usually its ZERO Powell lost control at the end?