Shane Sigsbee

Imawhale is going all-in on prediction markets. $500M+ in volume #1 on Kalshi volume leaderboard (opt ins) This is just the starting point. We’re building the leading PM trading platform. Strategic partners + hires: imawhale.com

@yizzle_ev @Novig If they aren’t, we are 😀

you guys still hiring? @Novig

Wild day on Kalshi’s IPL market. Ended up doing roughly one-third of the entire market’s volume: ~$9M traded out of ~$27M total.

We’re building fast. In April, we pushed:
• $256M in Kalshi volume
• Doubled the trading team
• Launched our live trading arm
• Rolled out internal trading software In May, we’re accelerating:
• 3 new exchange launches
• Training the next wave of traders
• Expanding live coverage imawhale.com

@golfodds DM me an email address, would love to chat

after 22 years at the Hilton/Westgate, free agency looms

@Flupnolide Loved reading this Flup

Decided to make a substack to get some random thoughts out. Probably my only post: flupnolide.substack.com/p/scaling-a-be…

Can’t discuss the specifics of the Kalshi MM program (or any other MM programs) but some early learning curves combined with delta neutral arbs elsewhere led to some early hurdles dating back to January. That’s been turned around and we feel confident in our continued profitability MMing hundreds of markets across multiple exchanges.

@ssigsbee I recall seeing a very much negative pnl not too long ago (when it was previously visible). What's the story there? Are there incentives from Kalshi that are not included in that figure?

Imawhale is going all-in on prediction markets. $500M+ in volume #1 on Kalshi volume leaderboard (opt ins) This is just the starting point. We’re building the leading PM trading platform. Strategic partners + hires: imawhale.com

@radarmentions Possibly! Send us an email on our website, happy to look at it!

@ssigsbee Interested in mentions markets? :)

@Garrrry23 There’s a link on the website you can send an email to, thanks!

@ssigsbee How can I DM you. Very interested.

@OlympusBets Would love to look at it, send us an email from our contact us link on our website!

@ssigsbee I built an entire system overnight for my users - detection of best traders with proven ROI and conviction layered against my Monte Carlo simulations I’ll put it up against most

@Bettingdaddy10 There’s a link on the website you can send an email to, thanks!

@ssigsbee How can I Dm? We have some common synergies!

I would develop some sort of alpha. It could be anything, but maybe you’re the best live Esports trader, and then as you meet people lead with your alpha. It’s just a very competitive environment and any networking is going to have to feel mutually beneficial. Until then, consume as much PM content as you possibly can and work on edges on low hanging fruit.

@RufusPeabody #1 of Opt Ins for both 🙌

@ssigsbee Don’t you mean #15? Or is my group #1 on the profit leaderboard?

@DCat7 There’s a link on the site, I guess we should clarify the roles we are currently hiring for 😂

@ssigsbee Where do I apply to be VP of Ordering Lunch for the team?

@goldenpants013 @mweav27 40c

Okay real question - maybe @mweav27 could help me answer this. I basically stopped playing golf when I lived in nyc. But now I live in SC, had a year back “playing”, and have a hitting net in garage. Odds that I cross the 0.0 line in 2026 w/ a serious effort?

@benwfreeman1 This is a great write-up!

Kalshi Trading is similar to Sportsbook promo offers, for those with a sports gambling background I’ve been seeing a lot of dis- & mis-information around Kalshi recently, so I wanted to give y’all my understanding on what Kalshi Trading & market makers are & aren’t. Here goes 🧵 One of the main problems that exchanges run into is not having enough liquidity, and it’s a chicken and the egg problem. Because in order to have liquidity you need users, but in order to entice users to use your platform, you need liquidity In order to promote liquidity on their platform, Kalshi partnered with a company called Kalshi Trading (they are completely different) to be one of their initial “market makers”. In order to really understand how this works, I will have to explain the business of market making and taking, which will take a while, but in brief when you are market making, you are placing a limit order, say that I will buy X number of contracts at this price. A market taker will then buy the opposite side of that contract, BUT they will pay low fees (this is how Kalshi makes money). The pro for the market maker is that they don’t have to pay fees, BUT the con is they could be the victim of asymmetrical information or adverse selection by leaving up an open market making bid. The pro for market takers is they have complete control of what they are buying at what time. The con is the fees. At a Sportsbook, the consumer is always the taker, and the book is the maker, & the Sportbook limits winning users. Kalshi’s model is completely different because it only makes money by increasing its volume (which in turn drives fee revenue). So, who are the market makers that Kalshi partners with? Kalshi Trading was the first one before any institutional investors (like SIG) were onboarded. The below shows a glitch where Kalshi Trading’s PnL was shown to the public. What is showed was surprisingly, but also consistent with what Kalshi Trading’s goal is. Kalshi Trading isn’t trying to be profitable. Yes, they are trying to limit their losses, but their goal (which makes sense to me) is to provide liquidity in a way that will increase volume. The category breakdowns is actually super interesting to me, and now I’m going to go down some speculation here. Because KT’s goal isn’t profit, it makes sense to me that overall they are in the red, but they are in the green in elections. It’s my speculation that KalshiTrading was being a market maker by selling Harris positions in 2024 (this is total speculation). I just noticed that most of the PM sharps were on Harris to win and most of the “retail” flow was on Trump to win. KT wanted to provide liquidity on the other side, so they did. They ended up winning there (because Trump won), but they weren’t trying to. This is honestly speculation, but it makes sense to me that KT would be the victim of adverse selection by sharps here, and the sharps aren’t always going to be right (especially on elections) Lastly, I think it might be helpful for people to think of KT like Sportsbook promos. On promos, Sportbooks aren’t trying to make money, but they are trying to induce volume. Now, I want to be clear that I think Kalshi and exchanges are not gambling and are clearly way different and better than Sportbooks, but I think it’s a decently fair comparison. I would love to have @eightyhi thoughts here as an ex-KT person (I just feel like there’s so much disinformation that needs to be corrected) and @goldenpants013 because you helped me understand some of these concepts like adverse selection through your podcast.

@DustinGouker Refund was multiples larger than the negative equity of the issue. I would guess this issue today cost them millions in refunds, not to mention the loss of revenue during midday on a CFB Saturday.

Trying to crowdsource: 1. If you got reimbursed by Kalshi when you feel like you should have been. 2. Whether you are happy with the amount of reimbursement. I want both good and bad! You can reply here or DM me. If the latter will be confidential.

@willwilcoxgolf Wesley Hunter is an absolute stud, getting him by 9 on any day is a round of golf

Decent opening round to the emerald coast tour event in Mississippi . 9 pars 9 birds at diamondhead gc

@KristyArnett @Amo4sho This is incredible and beautifully well written. Congrats to Andrew!

Poker was different when we were kids than it is now that we have kids. In our twenties, if Andrew @Amo4sho or I made a final table, a group text would go out and within an hour, our friends would show up to the casino rail with beers in hand. Once, when I made an FT at Venetian, Andrew torpedoed his stack in a tournament at Planet Hollywood so he could be there. He’d rather bust than miss cheering me on. I didn’t say it then, but I felt how much we belonged to each other back then. We’d scream, cheer, and flag down the cocktail waitress for celebratory shots. And no matter what place we finished, we’d celebrate—usually with an overpriced bottle of liquor at some club, trying to act like we mattered because we could afford a couch by the DJ booth. Then, Andrew and I would stumble back to our place hand in hand, kick our shoes off—letting them land with a thud at the door—then fall into bed in a tangle of limbs, drunk on tequila and adrenaline, and talk about every hand until we passed out. Not a care in the world. Not a damn thing to do the next day. Now, it’s different. After the long stretch of the World Series of Poker this summer when we didn’t see much of Andrew, we were finally back in rhythm as a family at home in Austin. Maya said “Dada” for the first time. Miles started waking up early just to build monster truck arenas with Andrew before breakfast. After weeks of distance, we’d all reconnected. But soon enough, it was time for another trip—Andrew was flying to Northern California to play the $2,700 Main Event at Rolling Thunder. We drove him to the airport and kissed him goodbye. Maya waved, and Miles yelled, “Run good, play good!” from his car seat. Before walking through the sliding doors, he turned back for a moment and we caught eyes. I smiled and waved. He smiled back, but we both knew that our smiles were hiding something. Andrew loves being a poker player. It’s his passion, and his passion supports our family financially. I love being home with the kids. It’s given my life meaning. And yet, as he left, I think we both felt sadness. Our smiles were the kind you give when you’re pretending it’s all okay. Mine covered a flicker of envy. Maybe I missed my identity as a poker player, when I wasn’t just a mom. His covered guilt. Maybe he felt bad leaving again. Or maybe it was the other way around. Maybe he wished he could stay home. Maybe I was worried about not contributing by working. I think we both sometimes wonder, are we doing the right thing? Andrew’s flight ended up canceled. Then rebooked. Then delayed. He was upset. I’m away from you guys for this? He ended up missing the first starting day entirely. He only had one shot: Day 1B. And he crushed it. With around 80 players left, Andrew had a big stack. Then he got into a hand—check-raised the flop, barreled the turn and river, then faced a shove. He tanked, then folded a flush. His opponent proudly tabled a bluff. Andrew admitted what he folded. Another player at the table, who’d been running well, looked at him over her huge stack and said, in a condescending tone, “Oh honey, you can’t fold a flush there,” as if Andrew was some washed-up has-been and she was the new sheriff. He said it felt like the table relished in watching the big bad pro stumble. Like they’d been waiting all day to see him get it wrong. The version of Andrew in his 20s might’ve shot back with a jab. Or melted under the pressure and tried to force the next big play, trying to prove himself. Because back then, Andrew always wondered if he’d just gotten lucky, and that any minute, everyone would find out he wasn’t as good as he seemed. But the version of Andrew in his 40s took a deep breath. He knew, from experience, that folding the best hand isn’t always weakness. Sometimes it’s wisdom. If you never fold the winning hand, you’re calling too much. The bigger test is whether you can fold the best hand and still play well after. Andrew looked down at his now-short stack and said to himself: Okay. Let’s see what we’re made of. And he climbed back. Slowly. Quietly. Until he made the final table as chip leader. At the dinner break, he FaceTimed us. I told Miles, “Daddy is trying to win a trophy.” Andrew rubbed his forehead and said, “Yeah, buddy. But it’s been really hard.” Miles jumped up, put Grave Digger in front of the camera and said, “Take a monster truck and smash everybody!” We laughed. Then Miles repeated something I say to him often: “You know you can do hard things, Dada.” Andrew smiled. “That’s great advice, buddy.” Sometime around 10:30 PM in California—12:30 AM for me—I was in bed, Miles’ foot lodged in my back, Maya latched and half-asleep on my chest, scrolling in the dark, refreshing updates with one hand, until I read the final one. Andrew Moreno is the Main Event Champion. $200,000. No cheering rail. No shots. No victory lap. I wished I could have been there with him. To hug him. To sit on his lap for a winner’s picture. To go for steak and eggs and talk about every hand. I felt that familiar swell in my heart, the butterflies in my stomach, just now in a silent room. When we were kids, poker was about proving we mattered. Maybe part of it still is. But now, with kids, it also feels like something deeper. Something more meaningful. Maybe to belong. Maybe to provide. Maybe to become the humans we want our kids to learn from. I thought about this as I read the updates while listening to Miles’ little stuffy nose whistle. Then Andrew texted: We did it. The phone glowed as I read it. I smiled. That’s what he always says now, when he wins a tournament. We did it. Not “I.” And that small word—we—reminds me that we, from the time we were kids to now, are still in this together. I texted back: I’m so proud of you. Andrew: It was really hard today Me: Good thing Miles gave you some good advice Andrew: He really did I pulled the kids closer and closed my eyes, knowing, for the first time, that the "we" Andrew was talking about… was all of us. (if you've made it this far, thank you! And I have a substack now- check link below)

Incredible weekend at National mid am event Snedeker Memorial honoring @HaymesSnedeker @BrandtSnedeker family. Thx @backoftherange for the great pics! Fun to be in the mix and competing w some great mid ams!