weathermonkey

@Landtrader8375 Man, I love this idea. In the elite tier of IRS loyalty program, you can have your name etched into various things your tax dollars paid for... a park bench, a medicaid pill bottle, or even a Tomahawk cruise missile.

To illustrate, imagine making a watch that costs $1,000 to manufacture available exclusively on the IRS rewards store, redeemable for 5 million rewards points. The watch would be a huge status symbol, and someone with 4.98 million rewards points may pay an extra $20k taxes voluntarily just to obtain the watch. And people who are currently underreporting income will be more likely to accurately report what they owe so that they don't look poor compared to their peers. Basically allows the government to tax vanity.

Hopefully having my most painful day of 2026 today (writing checks to IRS and state taxing authorities). Idea I had years ago that would make paying taxes fun and would almost certainly pay for itself would be for the government to have a rewards system that allows you to receive exclusive gifts based on amount of taxes paid. Each dollar paid = 1 reward point on IRS account, redeemable on IRS schwag store for exclusive experiences (tours of gov buildings, NASA launches), coin mints, national park passes etc.

@DustinGouker @seththebot Here's the market via the API: api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/m… It's got 157 legs and a total volume of 18767, last traded price 0.6c. A real beauty.

@wxmonke @seththebot if you see one bigger than 30 send me a screenshot

Wow* *this is not real

@DustinGouker @seththebot I saw a 157-legger get filled the other day. That's Nobel-worthy research right there

@seththebot the more legs, the more truth you get. that's science.

@cobybets1 don't forget to pay those quarterly estimated taxes!

Good quarter onto the next

@Polymarket's fee structure is way more competitive than Kalshi's: - 25% maker rebate - no maker fees! - lower taker fee rates (e.g. 0.03, 0.04 varies by category vs Kalshi's 0.07) - fees round down to 0 when small enough vs Kalshi always rounds up Hopefully @Kalshi steps it up

someone call guinness world records, we got a 157-leg parlay here ``` $4.65 1162 @ 0.4c 157-LEG KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026BA7F4F7119B-ED0C454F2C0 ```

i won't recommend ripping a 50+ leg parlay but if you can dream it, i'll quote it

actual photo of RFQ creators with hidden ids

@eightyhi @carterkev @KyleSamani @berkowitz_josh congrats!!

@Nostroah whoa congrats man!!!

www dot 5cc dot capital

@ssigsbee Interesting, thanks for the sharing that context Shane!

Can’t discuss the specifics of the Kalshi MM program (or any other MM programs) but some early learning curves combined with delta neutral arbs elsewhere led to some early hurdles dating back to January. That’s been turned around and we feel confident in our continued profitability MMing hundreds of markets across multiple exchanges.

Imawhale is going all-in on prediction markets. $500M+ in volume #1 on Kalshi volume leaderboard (opt ins) This is just the starting point. We’re building the leading PM trading platform. Strategic partners + hires: imawhale.com

@EventWavesIO have you tried scraping the company's website? sometimes they have predictable URLs e.g. for meta s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/file… s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/file…

Here's the article: eventwaves.substack.com/p/trying-to-bu…

Just wrote about trying to beat the low-latency earnings bots on Polymarket (It did not go particularly well for me)

yesterday roughly $16M of combos were traded at < 1c on @Kalshi

@senseibence @CSP_Trading

@wxmonke @CSP_Trading this week will be a big waitlist rolloff 🙈

Polymarket is giving away $2 MILLION DOLLARS to anyone who puts up limit orders for March Madness games. Unlike some sites who do fake billion dollar prizes they know theyll never have to pay out, Polymarket is giving away cold straight cash to anyone who bids. Details in reply

@nickdevor_ well somehow JPMorgan has been crushing it on Kalshi: kalshi.com/ideas/profiles… 😝

SCOOP: JPMorgan Chase has no current plans to hire traders of its own to bet on prediction markets. Separately, the world's largest bank is reviewing company policies to determine whether it should add new guidance around employees’ participation in platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, people familiar with the matter said. Any new guidance from JPMorgan, which has some 320,000 employees, could set the tone for other companies ironing out their own rules around prediction markets. While bank staffers work in a tightly regulated sector, these platforms represent nascent markets and raise thorny new compliance questions. Like their rivals, JPMorgan’s traders and research analysts monitor prediction markets as information sources. Its plans around prediction markets could change if regulators offer greater clarity on how they plan to supervise prediction markets, particularly those where a security is involved, the people familiar with the matter said. Popular prediction-market bets, such as political elections and sports matches, aren’t yet sustainable trading businesses, they said.

@senseibence @CSP_Trading oh really? i have yet to gain access to cftc poly

@wxmonke @CSP_Trading there are similarly generous liq rewards on poly US

@Alfred_Lin @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara don't worry, SIG is paying for it

Wow! @mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara this is nuts! Did you get board approval? 🤣

@CSP_Trading holy crap these are some serious liq rewards!

#liquidity-rewards" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/…

today's championship games missing from kalshi combo builder again... will this ever be fixed?