Rob
72 posts


@RHouseResearch fluidstack building a 2.1GW(!) dc directly next to $HNRG's power plant
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Fluidstack is Anthropic's managed service provider for their TPU-centric data centers.. and TeraWulf $WULF is Fluidstack's largest data center landlord.

Wall St Engine@wallstengine
Bloomberg: Cloud startup Fluidstack is seeking about $1B at an $18B valuation, up sharply from $7.5B earlier in 2026. Jane Street and Situational Awareness are said to be in talks to co-lead the round.
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*🚨BREAKING: OpenAI’s own investors just called them out on record to the FT
Early backer:
>“It’s a deeply unfocused company”
Another investor on TBPN acquisition:
>“I don’t get it frankly. It’s a distraction and it irks me”
Iconiq Capital:
>“We picked. We invested a lot into Anthropic”
Investor who backed both OAI and Anthropic:
>“OpenAI risks being left in no man’s land”
Sapphire Ventures president called it:
>“The Netscape of AI”
OpenAI investors say to justify $852B you’d need a $1.2T IPO — hard to justify when Anthropic is $380B and growing faster
Secondary markets are now pricing Anthropic at a premium over OpenAI
INVESTOR SENTIMENT FLIPPING

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Just listened to the $HNRG call.
Negatives:
1) Mgmt indicated that they will sign LT PPAs w/ multiple parties, so it doesn't sound like the proposed 960MW datacenter near Merom will be powered by Hallador.
2)The Merom plant experienced unexpected issues in Q4 which lingered into Q1. Hopefully they have these operational issues under control.
Positives:
1) Offers for the Merom plant continue to get better and better from a pricing perspective, with the past 4 weeks seeing a notable uptick in positive momentum / interest.
2) The most bullish signal was mgmt's comments on the capacity market. According to the CEO, he expects the upcoming MISO capacity auction to clear at a dramatically higher price than last year & he indicated that this large expected uptick in capacity pricing is being reflected in the offers that the Co is receiving today. Any increase in capacity pricing flows straight to the bottom line.
3) The Co is making good progress on its 515MW natural gas expansion from a regulatory perspective, as well as from a PPA negotiation perspective.
I remain long.
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@bubbleboi I have one but valuation is not good, roughly $600B+, no fee no carry.
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Someone please source me Anthropic secondaries.
David Pfau@pfau
At the current growth rate of 3x every quarter, Anthropic's revenue is on track to surpass Google in Q4 this year, Amazon in Q1 next year and the entire United States federal government somewhere in Q2/Q3.
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“We, as Hallador, are only allowed to sell wholesale power. And when you start attracting customers, you know, for data centers and whatnot, that is industrial power. And so that technically has to be sold through a structure that involves Hoosier and their distributive cooperative, WIN REMC.” - Brent on earnings call immediately post MOU
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we know from the Hallador data center RFP (pictured), any power agreement will be in partnership with the local utilities Hoosier and WIN. in addition the MOU from 2024 is between Hallador and Hoosier/WIN allowing Hallador to market the opportunity to data center developers. we should expect that any power arrangement for the announced data center will involve all three entities. my interpretation of this specific comment by Bob adds more evidence (to the already large amount) that the data center will be powered by the merom plant.

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$HNRG The public county road use approval documents lists the transportation coordinator of the project as Nabeel Shalab, with a fluidstack email address. Nabeel is a Senior Data Center Project Manager for Fluidstack. Fluidstack is an ai company that recently pulled out of their planned projects in France for 'better opportunities in the US.' They've done a few datacenter/power deals recently. They recently raised capital at a 7B valuation, with Situational Awareness, the investment firm founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, being the lead investor. Google was also reportedly looking at making an investment.
Fluidstack is also partners with Anthropic on a $50B data center buildout. Anthropic has been more pragmatic than others on their energy sourcing, advocating for an 'all of the above' energy policy given the power demands and imperative for American AI leadership. Due to all of this, I believe its likely that Anthropic is the one behind the datacenter.
How about the industrial park? The IDEM stormwater notice for 'Project Nova – Tree Clearing' lists Heartland Industrial Park's address as 1 Executive Drive, Edgewood, NY 11717. That Edgewood address is also the address for Heartland Business Center’s corporate office, Gerald Wolkoff’s industrial park. Gerald passed away in 2020 but his firm remains run by his family. They're well known and successful developers, and have several projects with the Heartland name. I believe they're likely behind the industrial park.
These are large and experienced groups that have the deep pockets and experience to execute such a large development. I believe an announcement is likely imminent. Hallador said on their earnings call in November that they expected early 2026 to be when they get a deal signed. In the recent county commissioner meeting (can be found on youtube, last time I looked it had 175 views) it was said that construction would be starting in a few weeks. Sullivan County has no zoning laws and that the only thing the development needed from them was a road use agreement, which was approved unanimously without a word of protest. The county commissioners were rightfully excited and mentioned that they wanted to establish trusts for the charitable organizations receiving donations so that they could get an annual distribution of the interest. There's another county commissioner meeting tonight to discuss this further, hopefully more details become public. I believe the market is vastly underestimating the likelihood of a transformative deal.
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@SandyBrandyy @Mike10947310 "one of the largest economic projects in indiana history" $HNRG
youtube.com/watch?v=JX-wQ4…

YouTube
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New piece on $HNRG is out now! I believe there is a "smoking gun" indicating that Hallador has a data center partner that is seriously pursuing a buildout which would see Hallador's Merom plant potentially lock in a major PPA agreement. If this comes to pass (despite challenges and roadblocks I also outline), this would absolutely rerate the stock.

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@Mike10947310 @SandyBrandyy at first glance, ~1.5-2x bigger than I was thinking (with a phased rollout)
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