Rittenhouse Research

TeraWulf WULF Investment Thesis (PDF in link below, no paywall) rittenhouseresearch.substack.com/p/terawulf-inv… $WULF

@MasaSonCap 🥳

All-time high achieved

And don’t forget $ARM +15% today to a $270B market cap

@RyanMarkus I like the weekly episodes with Rory and Jason. Listen to those every week.

@RHouseResearch Have you listened to 20VC recently? Very high quality

Genuinely the most unlikable prick in all of venture capital, which is saying a lot

@CeErreEffiLeo Actually working on this exactly, stay tuned

@RHouseResearch You should write up an update on GLXY since 99% of GLXY holders on x just farm fud and you’re one of the few who actually know the space in and out

@CeErreEffiLeo $50 seems reasonable. $100 next year? Let’s see.

@RHouseResearch What’s your EOY GLXY target

🎯🎯🎯

@TMTLongShort Super Safe Intelligence could also make a lot of sense

Will be interesting to see which company Elon attempts to acquire first: Intel, Substrate, Cerebras, Space Forge or Etched

@zephyr_z9 😩☠️😂

"He said he hopes Super Micro Computer will strengthen its compliance framework." Lmao

Walking outside daily is arguably one of the top life style changes you can make if you don’t already. Both for longevity/physical health & letting your mind float and personal introspection. You need to be walk maxxing!

@SouthernValue95 Yep you’re right, deleted my post as it was misleading. I wonder if another way to frame it is with $2T of annual maintenance CapEx on an asset base with a useful life of 6 years, you’d peak at $12T of PP&E before leveling off..

@RHouseResearch COGS = maintenance capex. Think though the idea of needing $5T capex to support $4T of revenue… doesn’t work

Some crude AI TAM analysis: - It was recently reported that $CRM is on track to spend ~$300M on Anthropic this year. That works out to ~$300/mo per employee - A GitHub copilot customer I spoke to was quoted a 10x price increase in June ($300/mo) - I myself happen to spend ~$300/mo in AI subscriptions - Let’s use $300/mo as a proxy for decent penetration of AI into a knowledge workforce. $MSFT 365 has ~450M users, $GOOG Workspace has a similar number (est., not disclosed). That’s a decent proxy for global knowledge workers ex-China at ~900M. If every knowledge worker consumed $300/mo of tokens, that’s a $270B monthly or $3.24T annually. Would equate to ~5-6% of global white collar labor spend ($50T). On consumer side: if every GOOG/META DAU consumed ~$20/mo of tokens, it would be ~3B * $20/mo * 12 = ~$720B. GOOG/META could basically fully subsidize this with their existing business models within a few years. Let’s assume $20/mo of tokens is covered some mix of ads, subscriptions, commerce share, and subsidization. Combining the TAMs we get to ~$4T of token spend. Keeping to simple numbers, at ~50% gross margins, it would sustainably require ~$2T of infrastructure spend to support these tokens. That would be ~2x the 2026 rate of ~$1T of AI infra spend ex-China. So from there: - Is enterprise token spend too high or too low? Could argue token consumption will only grow for CRM, but also that cost per token will fall, and the avg company won’t consume that much. - Is consumer token consumption too high or too low? Maybe consumers will be more willing to spend on subscriptions for this than in past consumer tech cycles. Maybe it’s too high if ai models don’t monetize. But at least $300/mo per user for enterprise and $20/mo for consumer are tangible numbers I can get my head around. That feels like the bogey for infra cycle to have another double from here and not be a huge bubble, and probably need another double at least for the stocks to work. Very crude round numbers throughout here. Appreciate thoughts and pushback.

@Evan_ss6 Highly doubt STRC holders are losing 98% of their principal 🤣

If the cringe AI slop videos advertising 11.5% yield a year weren’t obvious, let me make it clear STRC is cooked Meanwhile, the government is more interested in backing quantum computing

Looking at valuation from an “EV to MW” lens is increasingly stupid. A lot of the MWs touted will never be brought online.. What exactly is the point in having “multiple gigawatts of secured power!” if you can only bring online a few hundred MWs per year..? And for the MWs that are contracted, the disparity in the underlying economics earned by different companies in different categories is only growing. EV/EBITDA makes sense for the data center development platforms as their assets have 15 year useful lives , but is questionable for a neocloud given GPUs are depreciated over 6 years. EV/EBIT more appropriate there. EV/Revenue for a neocloud is diabolical given the capital intensity, yet that’s often the most common multiple used (in addition to EV/MW).

@jaminball Lol, IREN does not have 210MW online / active. They have ~10MW online / active, as they did ~$34MM of “cloud” revenue last quarter vs. $2B+ for CoreWeave and ~$400MM for NBIS. Bucketing them in the same category as CRWV and NBIS is diabolical.

@WaterworldCapi1 $KO at like 25x forward seems insane for a biz growing topline less than nominal GDP (all of the earnings growth in recent years is from cost efficiencies), facing what should be huge headwinds with all of the drugs people are injecting into their bodies to stop eating..

Y'all have any good shorts (no shitcos/story stocks pls)?

Some of the details CoreWeave provided on their customer contracts and financing structures at JPM TMT earlier this week shed light on how they’ve scaled so quickly.. For example, with their investment-grade off-take contracts (e.g. their $35B deal with Meta), CoreWeave’s most recent Delayed Draw Term Loan facilities permit them to borrow at 90%-100% LTCs during a GPU cluster’s construction phase, with further draws available (above 100% LTC) once the GPUs are brought online and generating revenue. So CoreWeave could be building a $10B cluster without needing to invest a single penny off their balance sheet.. And this most recently issued debt at the asset (e.g. customer contract) level is both investment grade rated and non-recourse back to CoreWeave as the parent. With unlevered returns in the high teens to low 20s, and financing at 90%+ LTC and ~6% rates available, CoreWeave’s contract-level economics are very attractive. Over the course of this year, I’d expect a significant ramp in operating margin as these types of contracts are brought online, while recent headcount-related investments in GTM and R&D level out. Also, the narrative around CoreWeave’s debt being unsustainable looks more and more preposterous. CoreWeave’s lenders continue to provide them with increasingly larger amount of capital, at lower rates, with more flexible and favorable terms for CoreWeave as the borrower. This would not be the case if CoreWeave was having even the slightest of issues servicing their existing debt. $CRWV

@Larryjamieson_ Compoundoooors still out there..

hang it in the louvre

@Franchise9494 @NicolasFlamelX .. @FloodCapital

@NicolasFlamelX Valuation is equivalent of 3.75 CAD era of 2023. Grossly undervalued, and at some point you'll see the 10x we saw late 2023 . Historically, this is where you load up, buy the fear, and moo like a king 2 years later. Likely the least downside risk to buying $GLXY ever here.

$1 GLXY: scam $5 GLXY: scam $10 GLXY: scam $20 GLXY: scam $30 GLXY: scam Noticing two trends here and im licking my lips

@ChelApples @NicolasFlamelX Nah man.. Mining Mafia? You are a lying piece of shit. I’ve literally been doxxed on here by the Mining Mafia bozos. Accusing me of being in Mining Mafia when I’m literally doxxed, harassed, and threatened by Mining Mafia.. Pathetic.

@RHouseResearch @NicolasFlamelX Ironic that it seemed to be worth your "time and energy" to throw out now seven paragraphs of targeted slop. Also, been here way longer than you with zero leverage and a basement cost; sometimes people do not like being lied to, bucko. I'll leave you to your Mining Mafia now.

Who remembers when $GLXY fell under 1$ CAD and got halted? Galaxy had to issue a press release saying it was “unaware of any material change” I often think about that whenever people say Novogratz doesn’t know how to create shareholder value