altoshi

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altoshi

altoshi

@stablealt

Katılım Eylül 2022
58 Takip Edilen10.7K Takipçiler
altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
The EV is 1.00 actually. You're betting your entire net worth, which changes after every click of the button. If you lose after the first press, you are betting 0.5x, not 1x. If you win, you're betting 2x, not 1x. The EV will be 1.25 only if you bet a fixed amount each time (1x, 1x, 1x, 1x...)
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Aporia
Aporia@0xaporia·
At first glance, pressing the button seems like a great opportunity. Each press has a 50% chance to double your wealth and a 50% chance to halve it (EV = 1.25x). Mathematically, this implies infinite presses should lead to infinite wealth. It becomes an infinite random walk where every positive outcome occurs with certainty. Awesome. In theory. However, a game can offer a seemingly generous +25% average return on each press, yet most participants can still lose money because of the nature of multiplicative betting. The mean (average) wealth can explode to extremely large amounts with the median (the wealth of the typical participant) and the majority of players losing money. In this game, wealth compounds multiplicatively, not additively. The average outcome is wildly profitable. The typical outcome is stagnation or loss. The majority of players go to zero, on a series of highly +EV trades. The problem is in how much you bet each time. Position sizing transforms this risky gamble into a sustainable strategy. Let's say you do 50% instead of 100%. It instantly becomes a great strategy. In any high-volatility, positive-EV scenario, the path to long-term profitability for the majority is careful position sizing. Survival is a prerequisite for realizing your edge. “Just survive” is not simply feel-good advice but actually useful.
Aporia tweet mediaAporia tweet media
Aporia@0xaporia

If you could press a button that has a 50/50 chance of doubling your net worth or halving it. How many times would you press it? (put your reasoning in comments pls)

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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@Autophil95 @0xaporia this could have worked if you were betting a fixed amount. You're betting your entire net worth, which changes every time you press the button. You're betting $1m, doubling it to $2m, then betting the new net worth ($2m), not $1m again.
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Autophil
Autophil@Autophil95·
@stablealt @0xaporia Thats true for the geometric average: √(2 x 0.5) = 1, so the typical multiplicative growth is 1 (no growth). But my point was about expected value: 0.5 x 2 + 0.5 x 0.5 = 1.25 per press. So the median outcome stays flat, but the expected value increases. different metrics
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Aporia
Aporia@0xaporia·
If you could press a button that has a 50/50 chance of doubling your net worth or halving it. How many times would you press it? (put your reasoning in comments pls)
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@Crypto_Yungmarx I do agree with you, this data has a lot of noise, I am not using this as a serious indicator. But it would be a funny coincidence if it works out
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YUNG
YUNG@Crypto_Yungmarx·
@stablealt this is meaningless. most of these big wallets are mms, algos etc. So, you see one side of the hedge. One wallet can lose 5m on hype and make 10m on finance
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@rajivpoc Great job! That is what many people needed.
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Rajiv Patel-O’Connor
Rajiv Patel-O’Connor@rajivpoc·
I put together a dashboard to understand user and market level contributions to HyperCore trading fees! fees.6is.dev
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
most of the people fudding Lighter are those who discovered $HYPE at >$40. Lesson in here. all smart .hls I know are peacefully building. Not emotional because not underwater 🙃
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@Autophil95 @0xaporia you're doing arithmetic average, the thing here is geometric average. With 10+ presses and 0 variance, your net worth will stay the same
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Autophil
Autophil@Autophil95·
@0xaporia 10+ Each press has a positive EV. 0.5×2 + 0.5×0.5 = 1.25, so on average your money grows 25% per press.
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@litocoen @xStocksFi would be good if tokenized stocks will be accepted in global pools of the main lending protocols perps on stocks have extreme funding + u pay funding with 1x leverage + ADL risks. Not suitable for long-term leveraged positions
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
Let's do a $100k bet that I held my LIT airdrop on all this way down. I will show you my Lighter address once you send 100k to a trusted middleman. If I held pico-top LITs - I will send you 100k, if I didn't (and sold it above $2.5) - you send me 100k. Put your money where your mouth is.
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markhor
markhor@wetmarkhor·
@stablealt how am i underwater when i clearly stated that i longed HYPE at $23 LMAO I didn’t hodl lighter from pico-top all the way down like you. isn’t that down 70%from ATHs or smth?
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
I understand that you're heavily underwater, thus you are ignoring outcomes which are not favoring your inventory. using historical data may assume a symmetrical outcome which happened historically, especially for mathematical assets like Bitcoin. Crypto Market structure is the same function basis wrapped into another function. At the end, the orderbook doesn't care if you are an ETF, Institutional, etc. There are only buyers and sellers.
altoshi tweet media
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markhor
markhor@wetmarkhor·
using historical data ≠ assuming identical outcomes. quant models look for statistical edges under changing regimes, they don’t assume the next cycle will mirror the last one. crypto market structure today (ETFs, sovereign flows, institutional custody, derivatives depth) is nothing like 2021. ur assumption that this cycles bitcoin price action will mirror last cycle is akin to those women who date purely on astrology.
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
do you know that the entire quantitative trading approach is built on past performance? you are just weighting the chances of each scenario which happened before by having large datasets and weighting algorithgms this scenario has a positive expected value for me. Even if it turns wrong, the model may work long-term
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markhor
markhor@wetmarkhor·
i disagree completely, trading under the assumption that 'past performance is an indicative of future performance' is a mindset that will slowly destroy you. if anything, i'd argue that bitcoin has potentially bottomed with the iran-israel war. in times of hardship & war, it becomes clear that gold is not the only suitable storage of value. there are newer use cases that have formed over the past 6 months, i'd encourage u to read this: x.com/wetmarkhor/sta…
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@Keisan_Crypto i think it would be no different from ventuals, as there isn't an arbitrage mechanism in it, funding is not as essential as on normal perps here
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Keisan.hl
Keisan.hl@Keisan_Crypto·
$VIX perps are gonna be interesting. It’s not an asset that is typically traded perpetually. There is no spot underlying for it, it’s just an index. Current mechanisms to trade it are futures contracts / options, or an ETF like $UVXY though these suffer from volatility decay. I imagine funding rates will be perpetually high on $VIX due to the nature of the index. All in all, this should be a much better and simpler product than is currently offered, and it will be cool to see where avg funding / premium shakes out Hyperliquid
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@worthyapes x.com/stablealt/stat…
altoshi@stablealt

i've probably made it clear that $LIT P/A will be bearish mid-term. I've made it clear that Lighter is pro-trader model and you shouldn't expect anything from the token. yet, some people who are bad at distinguishing between short-term and long-term, are yapping that I "perma-bullposted LIT at the top". Incorrect. it was part of my swing-trading strategy and LIT was up 30% from my posts in momentum. the attached quote is from early December when Lighter points were trading at $100/pt. 2 months after, it is trading at $40/pt. I always has been delta negative on LIT on mid-term (1mo-1y) US Corp registration cannot be a reason to buy a token for a longer term than 1 month during the bear market, which I told about in late October (BTC at 115k) my overall delta on the crypto market is negative and will stay bearish until late Q3 2026.

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Top Fry Cook
Top Fry Cook@worthyapes·
@stablealt Weren’t you shilling lighter a few months ago? 🫵😹
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
Were pretty early to Unit/XYZ farming, but now I'm 90% sure that it would *not* launch the token. Generate fees & buy $HYPE may be the best approach any Hyperliquid-native project shall do, and Unit shows the standards, again. You don't need a token. Many sub-Himalayan (and .**) accounts are now hyping the hip-3 farming while sharing treadfi reflinks. However, one of the main principles of positive EV money management is to buy uncertainty and sell consensus. This approach may be unpopular and 'hated' (don't give a fuck about tards in comments), but you would always laugh last. Glad that we didn't touch anything except for publicly shorting the market since late Nov.
altoshi@stablealt

22. Unit airdrop farming is underrated.

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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
@Bechtold77 x.com/stablealt/stat…
altoshi@stablealt

A peanut brain-style taking one quote without additional context. 1. The requirement was lowered by 50%, which made HIP-3 much more attractive (essential) 2. At the time of that tweet you quoted, HIP-3 wasn't supported on hl.xyz frontend (very essential) 3. Many updates to HIP-3 were made, such as ticker auction cost. Which *may be* were to my heavy criticism in the hype whales chat. I changed my opinion about HIP-3 just before the hype around it have started. (x.com/stablealt/stat…) A pair-trading (one of the largest retail scam) badge detected - opinion rejected.

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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
A peanut brain-style taking one quote without additional context. 1. The requirement was lowered by 50%, which made HIP-3 much more attractive (essential) 2. At the time of that tweet you quoted, HIP-3 wasn't supported on hl.xyz frontend (very essential) 3. Many updates to HIP-3 were made, such as ticker auction cost. Which *may be* were to my heavy criticism in the hype whales chat. I changed my opinion about HIP-3 just before the hype around it have started. (x.com/stablealt/stat…) A pair-trading (one of the largest retail scam) badge detected - opinion rejected.
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altoshi
altoshi@stablealt·
what would change with people actually trading them? it would only make MM-ing more attractive to third-party MMs with more taker flow. off-hour exposure in 8/10 times is a funding rate robbery from retail, and more likely a bug than a feature (until 24/7 spot markets would go live on trad exchanges)
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MONK
MONK@defi_monk·
Yes your protocol might have good perceived resting order book liquidity for TradFi perp pairs but what happens when people actually trade them? Yes your protocol might offer lower funding when markets are open but who cares if you can’t provide off hour exposure?
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Keşfet

@Autophil95 @0xaporia @Crypto_Yungmarx @rajivpoc @litocoen @xStocksFi @elonmusk @BarackObama