Stanley Lo
3.9K posts
🇩🇪🇯🇵 BREAKING: Germany is pushing for a new defense pact with Japan to allow troops from both nations to operate more easily on each other’s soil.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has proposed a “Reciprocal Access Agreement” to fast-track joint military training, exercises, and deployments.
Source: POLITICO
English
The U.S. request to delay a summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping served as a reminder that Washington still drives the global agenda—not China on.wsj.com/3NC6Opg
English
@NeoMatrixS @apocalypseos I think we have crossed that bridge many months ago (not hitting civilian infrastructure). Maybe I’m naiïve, but I still hope there will be a negotiated settlement to this conflict.
English
@apocalypseos This is a bad advice. Civilian infrastructure should not be attacked as a preemptive move. We do not know how something like that could escalate.
Iranians should issue a public warning that a retaliation of equal kind would follow any attack on Iranian civil infrastructure.
English
Scott Ritter: “If I were the Iranians, I would actually take out Israeli desalination plants now. Right now. End Israel right now. Just end it. Just take it out. End it. Make Israel over. Israel needs to cease to exist. It is literally the cancer on the planet.”
English
You are going to love this: how DCF analysis turns 3.5% cap rate on trailing NOI into 5.3% reported cap rate used for valuation
Here's the word problem:
This portfolio of SFRs generated $47.2M in NOI in 2025, the cost basis (undepreciated) is $1.339B, which gives us 3.5% cap rate.
The fund that holds this portfolio (via JV) reports 5.3% cap rate, 10 year hold, and 6.6% discount rate to arrive at $1.428B valuation
So for your enjoyment, I did a sensitivity analysis to see what the NOI growth assumptions need to be for the numbers to pencil
Behold: turns out NOI needs to hit a growth rate somewhere north of 6% for 10 consecutive YEARS (!!!)
YEARS, people.
NOI growth YoY from 2024-2025? NEGATIVE 4.8% (despite a 2% revenue increase)
Case study in comments, RE folks, you are going to love this
English
@angeloinchina I think Saudi’s Arabia will be smart enough to not draw Pakistan into this conflict, because as you said, it will create way more problems on the road.
English
Pakistan declaring war on Iran would mean the end of BRICS.
Although I am skeptical about this news > it would mean Pakistan is fully controlled by the US and the Zionists.
This would put China in an extremely difficult position.
DaiWW@BeijingDai
Pakistan now finds itself in a very awkward position. If Saudi Arabia declares war on Iran, under the terms of their military agreement, Pakistan would be obligated to declare war on Iran as well. Yet this is clearly not what Pakistan was intended for. In fact, the treaty was largely designed with Israel as a common potential adversary—not to make Pakistan a de facto ally of Israel. What's more, China would strongly oppose Pakistan declaring war on Iran, and the majority of Pakistan's weapons come from China. Pakistan also has its own concerns to worry about, namely India and Afghanistan. So, all things considered, Pakistan would not enage something real, and even if Pakistan were to declare war on Iran, it would most likely be limited to targeting the Balochistan region inside Iran—where the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a group that continuously stirs up trouble inside Pakistan, has its hideouts.
English
@BikoKonstantin1 @KingKong9888 I’ll start worrying when the Australian government tell people to work from home and start online classes for kids.
English
What if Asia gets worried and stops sending refined petroleum to Australia?
English
@traderjlj @KingKong9888 @alon_mizrahi @EmpireinWinter I don't know man, the moment Iran is hit with an Israeli nuke, >1,000 missiles (the new good stuff) will be launched at Israel.
There will be no winner.
English
@KingKong9888 @alon_mizrahi @EmpireinWinter So it will justify the use of an Israeli nuke. The false flag in the U.S. was discovered, this is plan B. They have already said, loss of soldiers is a small price to pay for “peace” in the ME.
English
Here is my prediction for an attempted ground invastion by the US:
No American soldier will survive this adventure alive, and 80-90% of them will die at sea before they can even prepare to disembark.
Donald Trump is sending thousands of Americans to a guaranteed suicide mission to please his AIPAC overlords. None of them will survive this.
That's it
English
English
@alon_mizrahi @EmpireinWinter Why would Trump and the U.S. military planners allow this to happen?
English
@LeylaKuni Unless BMO or DB are involved I don’t even wanna talk to you
English
I’ve developed a soft spot for funds with interesting books.
Plain-vanilla direct loans? Boring
Give me JVs, CLOs, PIVs. Give me layers upon layers of leverage
Now *this* is a balance sheet (deep in the footnotes)
Look at that leverage. Beautiful. Gorgeous even.
Best part: junior capital (equity and subordinated notes) shows up as an asset on the parent's balance sheet.
Which can then be levered against.
English
Perhaps, but I very much doubt the Chinese would want the Iranian people to go through such pain and hardship in this struggle. Their predicament is 90% due to US imperialism and western sanctions and 10% their own doing. I hope this conflict ends soon which results in a better future for the Iranian people.
English
@stanleylo The longer the conflict between the US and Iran lasts, the more it benefits China.
English
🇨🇳💥💸Tehran Teams Up with Beijing to Dethrone the Dollar:
Iran is currently in negotiations with eight non-Middle Eastern countries to grant their oil tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but only on the condition that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
Analysts interpret this as a form of economic warfare and de-dollarization, designed to circumvent and weaken U.S. financial sanctions by channeling transactions through China's financial system.
The strategy also deepens Iran's economic and strategic alignment with China, potentially elevating Beijing to the role of a de facto security guarantor for this vital global chokepoint.
The question is whether this was Iran's own strategy all along, or if China is the real mastermind pulling the strings behind the scenes.
What are your thoughts?
English
You have a lot of “levers”.
Scott Bessent:
In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.
English
@setupsnotcalls @shaunrein Agree, he’s been put into a very tough situation by Trump.
English
@shaunrein He’s dealing with a situation he was put in. If anything he’s being apolitical and rational, something sorely lacking right now in the administration
English
So Bessent has unsanctioned Russian oil & might unsanction Iranian oil
I told you last year when he was named Treasury Secretary - in all my dealings with him, he was an idiot
I have been proven right everyday for a year
English
2024–2025: “Hey! We turned sub-investment grade loans into AAA-rated securities.
Placed the ‘safe’ stuff with insurers, and packaged the rest into semi-liquid funds for dentists.”
Jeffrey Gundlach@TruthGundlach
On Wall Street: 2005-2006: “Hey! We found a way to turn BBB ratings into AAA ratings. And pocket the difference!!” 2024-2025: “Hey! We found a way put illiquid assets into liquid funds. And pocket the difference!!” Come home to DoubleLine.
English
@Seanfrank Sorry, but this hasn’t been the case since the late 1980’s. Around the time when the neo-cons got into power.
English
Fuck all this doomer shit.
The world is a better place because of America.
America is awesome.
It’s edgy to post about us being the bad guy, but the entire world is safer because we exist.
1,000 year empire.
The moon will be a state.
English
Not going to work. Iran would want someone who command the respect of the GCC to be an intermediary. One who can, along with the GCC, provide formal guarantee any peace deal. India and Modi CANNOT.
There’s a difference between being neutral and being an ass that plays everyone. India and Modi is the latter.
English
Here’s retired US colonel Douglas Macgregor, former Senior Advisor to the United States Secretary of Defense talking way more strategic common sense on the Iran war than anything uttered by Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth:
“People are going to lose trillions in wealth. It will be a disaster, and it’s not something we’ll recover from. We’ve thrown all caution to the wind. Think of any number of worst-case scenarios, they are on the horizon. President Trump is still president of the United States, not president of Israel. He has to think about the consequences here at home for us for the average man, not for the billionaire class, not the Epstein class.”
English
@sirZerwal @zhao_dashuai They can't make enough of them, and they don't yet make larger passenger jets.
China is a HUGE market.
English
@zhao_dashuai Why is CCP buying 500 Boeing aircrafts? Not confident in your own production? Weak
English
Vietnam's trade deficit with China: -$115.6 Billion dollars.
Vietnam's trade surplus with the US: +$134.0 Billion dollars.
English
English
@LukeGromen @shehzadhqazi Watch out Luke. A lot of unintelligent people will be angry that you are using logic here
English
Heard someone say this morning that the only two options for getting the Strait of Hormuz open are 1. Regime change or 2. Ceasefire.
Obviously regime change operations will only delay the opening. It’s not even clear a ceasefire will do the trick immediately!
English