Steiger535

It felt as though there was reasonable concensus a couple weeks ago (not everyone, just the biggest echo), that the bottom should be in the forties. It now seems like the biggest dichotomy is whether we’ve already bottomed, or if it has to happen in a few months based on the calendar, even if not much lower than $58k.

When everyone knows where the bottom is supposed to be, I start looking for where it isn’t. Markets have a nasty habit of punishing consensus

@CryptoMichNL Yes, and that the draft wording says that prosecution would come from the DOJ, not states. I’m sure the Democrats opposing the clarity act have no idea that the head of the DOJ is trumps personal lawyer. Should slide right through….

Big news came in: Clarity Act update bill would ban federal officials including presidents from issuing or sponsoring #crypto assets. I’m favoring this enormously as it would provide more fundamental depth towards #Crypto. Increasingly likely that the Clarity Act gets approved!

This is an excellent summary, and does a perfect job of explaining the confusion in the market right now. The vast majority are hedging, acknowledging that the metrics say we’ve likely bottomed but the calendar hasn’t. The only account that is comital in saying we’ve satisfied the elements of the bottoming structure and that the calendar readers are going to get caught offsides is blockchain backer. Personally, I think it’s a good time to buy spot now, but leverage should wait until we see who’s right.

I observed every single $BTC bear cycle. Key update: Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back. It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests. Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts. Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle. That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established. There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.

@Truecrypto 😂

TLDR for all the Twenty One shareholders "Technically, you lost all your money!"

@btc_charlie @sue_xbt Perhaps, but those charts which span a couple of weeks (ish), look like the 4 year charts a utility coins which probably actually HAVE bottomed, and have immense upside.

@sue_xbt There are no safe bets in crypto anymore

Not even 2 weeks ago, these were considered 'safe bets' on Robinhood 💔

I have always challenged your view on this, as you probably know 🤦‍♂️, but: I have come to believe that my own view has been too narrow and literal, (i.e. who goes first and why), and ignores natural cycles of markets, say nothing of the market cap differential. I now believe that your thesis is correct, and I have put my money where my mouth is.

A commonly repeated idea in this space is that crypto is lackluster/bleeding because liquidity is flowing out of it and into the stock market. The idea being proposed is that people are selling their crypto for equities. Many believe that this is the PRIMARY driver of the lackluster PA we have been seeing in the crypto space over the last couple of years while equities have outperformed. If you believe this to be true, then the opposite must also be true- when stocks finally peak and liquidity is now flowing OUT of them and not INTO them, then the sell pressure on crypto should also subside- not intensify. The reality is that liquidity in the crypto space has been drained (for one reason or another) and those that are left holding are not likely to be shaken out (we can validate this at least on Bitcoin where LTH supply is at the highest levels it has ever been and is only increasing, not decreasing). So when a 150T+ market finally peaks (global equities) it is unlikely that the 1.5T crypto market is somehow going to tank significantly further. Rather, if we have literally TENS OF TRILLIONS of dollars of liquidity flowing OUT of global equities now instead of flowing INTO them (which is what will happen when they peak) those profits are likely to find there way into other sectors, and if even 1-2% of that capital finds it's way into crypto it will set off another MASSIVE run across the board. So stop worrying about a blow off top in trad equities if you have exposure to crypto- really you should welcome it.

@fejau_inc Oof. A lot of smart people warned about the outcome of those things, but it was even worse than imagined. Stockholders would have done better buying into a Beanie Baby treasury company- for real!

Generational bottom, healing complete

@CredibleCrypto I wouldn’t have blamed you for not even responding out of fear of finger pointing later. You did way more than respond. Terrific framework backed up with sound logic and a trading refresher. Many thanks!

So the question was if I had a 100k to invest today, how much would I allocate to trading vs spot ports and how would I allocate the balance in my spot port for a 4 year time horizon. Here is my answer: 80% spot, 20% trading port. The 80% sits in mid to long term investments- typically until the end of the secular bull run (for this example we can assume the end of the 4 year time horizon for example). The 20% is used to actively trade in and out of any position on any asset that my heart desires. "But Cred, if you keep 80% of your capital sitting in long term investments that may take years to move, isn't there a massive opportunity cost?" No, not at all, and this is one of the biggest misconceptions I see around here. Opportunity cost DOESN'T EXIST in today's environment when you have access to all the margin/leverage tools that we have today. As an example, if you have a 100k port and no access to margin and leverage, then you would need to utilize 100% of that capital to trade a 100k position. However, with access to leverage and margin, you can use 10k of that capital to trade the exact same 100k position while the other 90% of your capital can sit off exchanges, or in this case, in mid to long term investments. When used correctly, and with "proper" position sizing, there is ZERO additional risk to using leverage or margin to trade a 100k position with only 10k of capital vs using 100k of your capital to trade that same position without leverage. When used correctly, leverage/margin can allow you to remove capital constraints and trade effectively with your intended size while at the same time freeing up otherwise "locked up" capital with which you can invest in longer term, high conviction, "set it and forget it" bets. If the above isn't making sense to you and you don't understand why or how this is possible, I recommend watching my 3 video series that breaks it all down in 25 minutes (total) which you can find here: youtube.com/playlist?list=… Now for the second part of the question- how would I allocate it over the next 4 years: At this stage since these are longer term, end of cycle bets, and because I am now not worried about timing and "opportunity cost", I am simply looking to buy the highest R/R coins that I can that I believe are fundamentally sound, at bargain prices, and will still be here until the end of the cycle when it's time to cash out. For my "blue chips", I would pass on $BTC (which was my "blue chip" pick until 100k+) and instead allocate to $ETH and $XRP. For the rest of my exposure, I'd go with my "top" picks, the same tokens I've been talking about for years that are all fundamentally sound from a technology and tokenomics perspective- which include $HBAR, $CRV, $CVX, and $TRAC off the top of my head. For diversification sake, I'd probably look to add maybe 2-3 more high conviction tokens to this list at most. Also worth noting I'd go heavier on $CVX over $CRV, simply because of the potential to earn yield while I wait for the eventual price rise. If interested in potential yield projections on $CVX, you can read an article I wrote about it here: x.com/CredibleCrypto… The % that you allocate to the "blue chips" vs smaller more volatile alts is a personal choice that will differ for everyone imo. For me, I would focus on the blue chips in tax deferred, retirement accounts if possible while getting exposure to the smaller cap alts outside of those venues. My personal split would probs be something along the lines of 30-50% blue chips, 50-70% smaller cap alts- but that ratio will obviously fluctuate with time and price, especially considering the expectation that the "blue chips" will be first out of the gates.

Okay, since you’re online, and we’re all enjoying chop city for now, I’ll challenge you with a question after you having watched market PA play out for the last couple of years: If you were to enter the market tomorrow, knowing what you know now, and for easy math sake, say you yourself had $100K to invest. How much would you personally allocate to your trading port vs spot, and how would you allocate the balance in spot for a four year horizon. I know you’re too smart too smart to answer this, but it was fun asking 😂. Thanks for all you do- it’s a LOT!

Chop city between the red and the green zones on $CRV low timeframes. Once we clear the supply zone above I'll be looking for a move to .33 first and if/when we clear that the next resistance zone is around the .65 region.

In all fairness to you, I’ve only followed him for a couple of years on the advice of a good friend, and all I know is that if I had listened to him since then, my portfolio wouldn’t look like a petty cash fund for a roadside hamburger stand. Be well, best of luck to you, and cheers. 🍻

@steiger535 @EFTB2020s @BCBacker He orginally said the top was 38k then said it again at 60k then again at 90k then 100k and then eventually got it right at 124k How’d that altseason go that he called for 5 years straight?

Three things are true in life: 1. Death 2. Taxes 3. Crowd group think gets wrong footed at reversals

If you want to see hubris, follow Ben Cowen (whom I also respect frankly). Ben is a bit cocky about his thesis, whereas BCB is actually just trying to help. Time will tell who is right, but my money is literally on BCB, and I won’t play the blame game if I’m wrong, not rather accept that I made the wrong choice.

@BCBacker @BCBacker for almost 7 years, you were posting endless videos of $10-13 XRP. It failed, and you kicked your audience who still hoped it would go to those prices. Watch your hubris.

The responses are amazing, and just reinforce how thankful I am for having stopped following the news over the past several months. As I read the responses, what pops into my mind is how Trump would respond to your well thought out strategic points in a one on one discussion. Have we one single time since this started, been enlightened and unified by his intelligent, thoughtful response laying out his overall strategy? He very well may have, and I admit that I may have missed it. If anyone would like to enlighten me, I would listen objectively. If it’s “the election was stolen”, never mind.

In any chaotic situation, the side that restores order wins. Ending the escalation cycle w/Iran and restoring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz must be our top priority—not only for the sake of our economy, but for America’s standing as a global superpower. There is no military solution to this conflict. The air campaigns are not working & a ground campaign would be a strategic disaster, producing heavy American casualties while further destabilizing the region. Continued escalation only worsens the damage to the U.S., our partners, and the global economy. Killing the Ayatollah has backfired: instead of fracturing the regime, it’s unified Iranians—including many who previously opposed the IRGC & the government— to now rally around the flag and the IRGC. After months of bloodshed, basic human nature combined with nationalism & Shia martyrdom culture dictate that meaningful concessions from the Iranians via diplomacy are highly unlikely while U.S. forces remain within striking distance. We restore order by ending the conflict on our terms: deprive Iran of military targets to strike by removing our troops, bases, & naval forces from the area. Our bases in the region are liabilities & relics of the past—abandoning them is not retreat, it’s strategic adaptation to modern warfare. This move removes Iran’s primary justification for disrupting shipping in the SOH and for attacking its neighbors. We can then offer the carrot: sanctions relief in exchange for freedom of navigation in the SOH. The war has changed the region. Iran has emerged as a major regional power—the sooner we recognize this reality and adjust our posture accordingly, the stronger our position will be.

As much as I agree with your view on the idiocy of this war Trader SZ, for you to characterize troops who take part in performing the duties they signed up for, (whether they agree philosophically or not- not their call), as terrorists, is telling. I’m sure you would have made a great general if that was the path that you chose, but you didn’t, so maybe stay in your own lane bro and keep shilling crypto memes of stuffed animals? 😉

@joekent16jan19 Any American going to fight in this illegal war is a terrorist

Tonight we will have to hit Iran hard in response to our troops being killed in Jordan. After that, we need to end this before it escalates further. Strike & simultaneously pull our forces out—remove Iran’s leverage and move on to economic negotiations. Restore order.

@gman14j @BCBacker Genuine question: What has been been wrong about?

@BCBacker You been wrong for so long I thought you quit by now

I'll be releasing a rare Saturday video today. I'm incorporating in the XRP price chart to explain Bitcoin's current structure to resonate with as many of you as possible. We've already experienced the "FTX collapse" of 2026. This may make it "click".

@BCBacker You have a true gift for disseminating a ton of relevant data and communicating your thesis in layman’s terms. I wish I had listened to your top call last year. I won’t look back this time and ask myself why I didn’t listen this time. Thank you for your efforts.

@FiboSwanny @TXWestCapital Well put Fibo!

The headline is the candle. The real signal is the conviction behind the candle

@DonAlt For the life of me, I just cannot understand why the ethics clause is the biggest stumbling block to congress passing the clarity act. I mean, what’s their actual concern?

The ultimate paid group Trump is the perfect CT grifter He's launched multiple NFTs A meme coin A "utility" coin And now a paid group And all of that in one cycle Impressive really

@CredibleCrypto Duly noted thanks!

@CredibleCrypto I realize you’re focusing on a potential trading opportunity here, but if you were looking to size up a CVX spot bag, would you wait for a potential pullback first, or too risky?

Zooming in, something like this would be ideal on LTF for $CVX.