Stephen Dodson

@ArmandDoma sfeducation.substack.com/p/8th-grade-al…

What is the best writing you’ve read about 8th grade algebra in SF?

@dieworkwear They had 159 regular stores in 2005 (and 41 factory stores). By the end of 2015, they had 287 retail stores (plus 161 factory). The expanded footprint certainly hurt, but the debt from the TPG buyout and the drop in J. Crew brand sales were probably bigger factors.

Something not explored, but I've sometimes wondered about, is how JCrew's retail footprint looked from 2005-2015-ish. IMO, the fall of Brooks Brothers is deeply tied to its real estate agreements. As the company expanded its number of retail stores and got locked into leases...

A very enjoyable article about J. Crew. newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…

@InnocenceCapit1 @QuisitiveInvest The $25 bn markdown can't be just long-dated securities. They only have $32 total. So maybe the $25 bn is what the markdown would have to be on the loan and HTM book if a buyer bought the bank. Or the $25 bn could be referring to some other type of capital need?

@QuisitiveInvest @stephendodson yes, understood. that's why sale isn't feasible. the new buyers would have to mark, which means you cannot pay for the equity

@Hoffrocket This is great. Thanks for sharing. For instances where uninsured depositors weren’t immediately made whole, I haven’t been able to find any info on the ultimate resolution (other than IndyMac in 08). Have you?

Fellow SVB depositors: in past 22 years, 91% of failed banks had their assets fully assumed by an acquirer. For the rest that had liquid assets, average of 55% of deposits were paid out within 30 days #gid=0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@StevenTDennis An FDIC takeover might not have been imminent, but they absolutely needed to raise a lot of capital. They have been insolvent on a mark-to-market basis for a while and were seeing large deposit outflows.

If FDIC insurance didn't have a cap and banks had to pay FDIC insurance on all deposits, would Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed?

@AnnieLowrey By mid/late last year, they had too much invested in LT bonds, especially in HTM. Repositioning the portfolio at that point would have led to large losses and likely insolvency on a GAAP basis. Maybe they could have done it early last year, but not not much later.

@AnnieLowrey I think the simplest answer is that sudden high rates and large deposit outflows were both considered not super likely. Happening together might have been considered very low probability, the assumption being a tech downturn would happen alongside low rates.

@DiMentor And you never know who you’re going to run into…

@InnocenceCapit1 This is the best piece I've seen about Bronny. He's a real top prospect and good enough to be an McD All American, but sounds like it's a real stretch for him to be an NBA contributor anytime soon, which is when LBJ would want to play w/ him. theathletic.com/3740911/2022/1…

Honest q, I have no idea. Bronny James is a McDonald’s All American. Is he that good or is he there for “other reasons”. I know Lebron wants to play in the league with him, but is that realistic? MJ’s son never got close iirc.

@DiMentor I think it’s great, but I’ve noticed a very high error rate. It told me George Washington was married twice! The tricky thing was that it sounded so convincing it had me questioning myself.

Merry Christmas from our family to yours! May you have a blessed and joyous holiday season.⭐️

@thecliffbar This won’t do it, but it’ll get you in that direction twitter.com/ketanj0/status…

I’ll bet you Sam Bankman-Fried’s “t-shirt and cargo shorts” shtick was just as much intentional brand building for his fraud as Elizabeth Holmes’ “black turtleneck and deep voice” was for hers. Selling a specific image of what people expect wunderkind genius founder to look like

@boltron apres moi... le deluge

✨✨✨✨

@GuyMarzorati Absolutely, strong game 6 vs OKC vibes tonight

2016 vibe tonight except we swapped Harry and Festus for Wiggs and Loon

@SFjkdineen Collected Stories?

when you are in bed at 10 pm reading Clarice Lispector for book club and the fire alarm goes off because your daughter who is headed to bard in two months is burning sage

@HilaryShirazi Ha! I did the same almost 15 years ago and am still with GEICO.

Went to the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting and saved 15% on car insurance

@Sharkyl 💯/💯

@MattHaneySF @SFGiants

Happy Opening Day, NL West Champion @SFGiants!