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@stevcapital

A bad investor trying to get by…

Katılım Nisan 2009
870 Takip Edilen99 Takipçiler
Compute King
Compute King@Compute_King·
@RYANHINGSHING 测试设备那个谁已经做了哦... EDA应该也是部分ready的,毕竟马上移动芯片就要上了.
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Compute King
Compute King@Compute_King·
论文中的这段是精髓:华为是直接把Die Boundary当金属层。。。 两个思考: 1,为了极致压缩数据移动时间,逻辑与存储必须重新走向紧密的物理融合(Re-Fusion) 。这也意味着供应链的话语权正在向内存和先进封装供应商倾斜 。 2,业界需要原生的3D-Native或者LogicFolding的完整EDA工具:目前的EDA工具是基于Interposer,基于2D平面建立的,将面积、时序和功耗独立优化 。LogicFolding需要将多层堆叠的裸片视为一个连续的设计实体,在单元(Cell)级别进行跨晶圆的3D布局布线与时序收敛。 这两个方向会比较有意思。
Compute King tweet mediaCompute King tweet media
Compute King@Compute_King

借一张图解释华为Tao定律。 Photo credit to 睿而不酷 & Gemini.

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breanna 🇺🇸🇩🇪
breanna 🇺🇸🇩🇪@txgermanbre·
@NataliaZarina Copilot includes GPT 5.5 and now Claude together. You get both in Excel, PowerPoint, Word, and other apps. It’s not hard to do research.
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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@paurooteri isn’t this well known information?
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SNL@stevcapital·
@jukan05 arm v8? not v9?
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Exynos 2700
Jukan tweet media
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SNL@stevcapital·
@Trendulkar not really, because you wouldn’t be able to tell which tweet he will send when, and so you might constantly be caught offside 🤔
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Trendulkar
Trendulkar@Trendulkar·
You could become a billionaire trader if you had access to Trump’s Truth Social draft folder.
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
"It takes two to TACO" - RBC
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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@rubicon59 specific example?
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rubicon59
rubicon59@rubicon59·
Actually, AEC copper is replacing optical fiber at an increasingly rapid rate for shorter scale out distances in data centers because it draws half the power and is 1000x more reliable. (The optics shilling is at a fever pitch now.)
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx

The AI data center has a problem nobody is talking about enough. The GPU is no longer the bottleneck. The wire is. Copper cannot move data fast enough to keep up with what Nvidia is building. It consumes too much power. It generates too much heat. As AI clusters get denser and models get larger, the physical limits of copper become a hard ceiling on what AI can do. The solution is light. Optical interconnects transmit data faster, cooler, and at a fraction of the power consumption of copper. Co-packaged optics, where the laser is packaged directly onto the GPU chip itself, reduces power consumption in AI clusters by up to 40%. That market is growing from under $400 million today to nearly $3 billion by 2032. Two companies own this transition. $LITE controls roughly 50-60% of the specialized laser chip market that powers these systems. Q2 revenue just came in at $665 million, up 65% year over year. Q3 guidance is $780-830 million, implying over 85% growth. Their backlog of optical circuit switches is sold out through end of 2027. They are targeting a $2 billion quarterly revenue run rate within two years. The CEO said they are at the starting line. Rosenblatt price target $900. $COHR just reported data center revenue up 36% year over year. A 20-year relationship with Nvidia just got formalized into a full strategic partnership covering next-generation silicon photonics, ultra-high power lasers, and priority capacity rights. Zero sell ratings on the Street. Rosenblatt price target $375. Both just got added to the S&P 500. Every index fund on earth is now a permanent forced buyer. Mizuho named $LITE a top AI pick for 2026 alongside Nvidia and Broadcom. The GPU era gave us Nvidia. The photonics era is giving us $LITE and $COHR.

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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@WSJ no shit captain obvious…
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The Wall Street Journal
China isn’t planning to invade Taiwan in 2027 and would prefer to take control of the island without resorting to force., the U.S. concludes on.wsj.com/4lAedlA
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SNL@stevcapital·
@vikramskr @ResearchQf yeah this is confusing. they don’t have a NVLINK CPO switch yet, so how can it be scale-up?
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Vikram Sekar
Vikram Sekar@vikramskr·
@ResearchQf A big question I have is whether the optical scale up for NVL576 involves pluggables or CPO. I think people assume CPO? but that means NVswitch needs CPO? which isnt there currently. so pluggables?
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SNL@stevcapital·
@zephyr_z9 the nvl576 rubin ultra is same…
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SNL@stevcapital·
@bubbleboi err the lasers are external now?
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
Copackaged optics is not reaching widespread deployment in data centers for the next 10 years. I don’t care what the roadmaps says !!! Everyone who is shilling this is either lying to you or doesn’t actually work in a data center. LASERS FAIL ALL THE TIME. That’s LITERALLY facts ask anyone who is running large data centers they need to swap pluggable transceivers DAILY. When your laser dies in a CPO system, your switch ASIC is a brick and is going to take down all the fucking traffic! Not just some network performance degradation it’s going to turn into a fucking brick you need to buy a new one and it costs like 300k dollars lmaooooo. And the “efficiency” argument many people will say is not as good as it looks on paper. Your optical engine still needs DSP chips for FEC and equalization. The lasers need thermoelectric coolers sitting millimeters away from an ASIC dumping 300+ watts of heat. The TEC power draw eats the efficiency gains that people like to tout in their pitch decks. Not to mention PHY’s are like 15% at most of data center power draw? You’re taking that big of a risk for a relatively small gain. Then there are coupling losses that are locked in at assembly forever... which just makes manufacturing this reliably at scale a nightmare. Bro not every PHY is the same based on how you placed the fiber like give me a breaaaaaaak. Ask anyone who actually has a PhD in photonics what they think they are going to tell you the same shit. Everyone telling you different than me needs to financially benefit from their investments. I don’t!
Hardwired@hardwiredai

@bubbleboi Ayar Labs has working silicon and Intel invested in them. CPO solves GPU-to-GPU bandwidth at 100K+ cluster scale, not inference throughput. "Will never ship" vs a confirmed supply chain is doing a lot of work.

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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@lisasufanclub isn’t it because they have a CB?
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lisasufanclub
lisasufanclub@lisasufanclub·
Lumentum $LITE has a short interest of 15%. That's on par with meme stock GameStop and SEC target Super Micro. and way higher than optics peers Coherent (3%) and Ciena (4%). 15% short interest doesn't mean people think it's kinda overvalued. it means they think Lumentum might be a scam. that means a lot of people still doubt Lumentum's 200G EML, OCS adoption beyond Google (literally has two other customers right now, likely Meta and Anthropic) and UHP CW lasers for CPO. and that means Lumentum will go way higher. until those shorts finally understand optical interconnect, OCS and CPO. until short interest goes to single digits like Coherent and Ciena. last chance to get Lumentum under $700
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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@altcap where do fabless semiconductor companies fit in here…? technically is just a bunch of r&d talent?
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Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner@altcap·
Truth. Fade businesses whose moat shrinks w improvements to general computational intelligence. Their multiples will shrink ahead of their shrinking moats. Your portfolio should be positively correlated to improvements in general intelligence. 🧐🧐
Naval@naval

AI is going to drain a lot of moats.

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SNL@stevcapital·
@ContrarianCurse it feels like this… but the market cap of all the optics names combined is tiny, compared to anything else in the AI space. how much capital can there possibly be in the space…
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
Just an observation and I have exposure in OFC and GTC next week But there is obviously a fuck load of capital on the copper / optics trade
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SNL@stevcapital·
@stfbutnou because most people have no clue about how any of this works…
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SNL@stevcapital·
@Citrini7 yes, it shows how offside the US investor base is. people are still very ow software and internet, and haven’t had a good time YTD. so it’s a very touchy subject..,
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Citrini
Citrini@citrini·
In hindsight, the entire financial establishment being upset at us alluding to the mere existence of a bear case probably was not the most bullish thing that’s happened this year and maybe had some signal value as to positioning.
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SNL
SNL@stevcapital·
@ContrarianCurse “we’re in the Xth-inning of the cycle, but we don’t know how many innings there are”
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
My impression of every Howard Marks memo This look expensive, there may be a bubble, but not yet. You should stay measured, but not miss the moment. History says markets go up and down
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SNL@stevcapital·
@KlendathuCap @Citrini7 zero… with full credit to citrini for a good piece. but i hope to hell real money managers aren’t trading on thought pieces that he even caveated was not a prediction.
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SNL@stevcapital·
@vikramskr @Citrini7 well said. i dunno why people are so sensitive… probably holding DASH and IGV and just salty… if you think he’s wrong, just take the other side of the trade and make money. he’s not even saying it’s his base case, it’s just exploring a possibility..
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Vikram Sekar
Vikram Sekar@vikramskr·
My entire X feed is filled with people dissing @Citrini7’s post. Guys, it’s just an opinion / thought piece. It could be completely wrong come June 2028. I think everyone (Citrini included) would be happy if the bear scenario doesn’t happen. At best, it’s a chance to revisit your exposure to risk in these markets. Chill, it’s all cool.
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