Steve Rayson

My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is published today! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp

A war to weaken Iran ends up with the US having to dilute sanctions on Iran. A mark of how blundering this whole endeavour has been.

Exclusive: Britain's civil service ethics chief twice offered to officially question Lord Mandelson over his links to Jeffrey Epstein but was rebuffed by No10. Darren Tierney approached senior No10 staff in late 2024 and offered to conduct formal interviews before the decision.

The correct decision but, blimey, it really is impressive - but not surprising - that you can spend £179m on not building a tunnel. Classic Britain.

A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar‌

@FPL_TomHadley First year playing and now recognise benefit of holding back FTs. Used my WC and only 1 FT. I fear injuries have made a FH inevitable. I can manage 34 I think by not having Chelsea players. Thoughts on my dire position?

I’m making 2-3 moves this week and of course want to remain flexible to all chip strategies. But I don’t like the idea of ignoring Newcastle simply because they may blank in GW34 (should I go FH33-WC35). I’m glad I saved up to 5FT. Probably won’t overthink who I buy this week!

#Israel announces the official beginning of its ground invasion of #Lebanon - seeks now to depopulate the entire area south of the Litani river- or 10% of #Lebanese territory & home to some 300,000 - 400,000 people spread over more than 150 villages and towns.

CNN: Breaking news. Cuba's electrical grid has suffered a complete and total collapse. This is according to the country's power operator. It's the first nationwide blackout since the US effectively shut off the flow of oil to Cuba

Voting intention by financial wellbeing segments. Labour lead with comfortably off and Reform UK with all other groups - including the financially vulnerable.

let me get this straight a team will not be playing in the FIFA World Cup because they are currently being bombed by the FIFA Peace Prize winner

The radical right rages that progressive elites want to take power from voters and give it to their chums Labour’s dismal achievement is to prove that the radical right is absolutely correct Me on the folly and menace of Starmer’s attack on trial by jury substacktools.com/sharex/xqKac6-W

No 10 told us the story was false. It wasn’t. It was entirely true. As the release of the first cache of Mandelson documents showed today.

Exclusive: Jonathan Powell, Keir Starmer’s national security adviser, warned that appointing Mandelson as US ambassador would be a disaster “His view was that Peter is always a disaster and we always end up firing him,” one senior official said. Sir Philip Barton, the former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office, also raised “reservations” about the appointment He was said to have been partly influenced by Dame Karen Pierce, the outgoing ambassador to the US, who “repeatedly flagged the Epstein risk” and fed back concerns about how significant it was going to be in US politics thetimes.com/article/870b62…

ANALYSIS: There in black and white proof red flags were raised over Mandelson. What did we learn and what’s the fall out?

The Government has not released the *actual* box returns on Mandelson Why? I’ve worked in No10 - Spads and Private Secretary provide comments AND we’d expect the PM to write in his view All that has been left out - why?

Watching the Labour front bench's attempt to restrict trial by jury makes me wonder whether Keir Starmer and David Lammy understand England at all. They are smashing up the fundamental freedoms of this country as if they were foreign invaders

British govt policy towards the Middle East crisis explained in 4 easy steps.

When is our government going to do something about the water industry? Dirty Business TV review — thrilling drama about Britain’s filthy water is a rallying call to arms via @FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

Pretty plausible

An outrageous decision in which MPs are judge jury and executioner on a decision that 🥁🥁🥁 surprise … shields them from basic scrutiny. Just like the Commons under Bercow voting to overturn centuries old precedent to automatically name arrested MPs, the pendulum swings from public interest to a self-interested, self-defined notion of privacy:

Rachel Reeves's claim that people will be £1,000 better off by the end of this Parliament will come under intense scrutiny today The Resolution Foundation says that living standards will initially rise but in the final two years of this Parliament, the incomes of working-age families will fall by £150 because of lower wages. It says the outlook for living standards is 'bleak'