Aaron

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Aaron

Aaron

@stockswithaaron

Tracking global & U.S. markets with a focus on tech stocks and market structure. Building Onyx at Dark Stone Capital NFA

United States Katılım Mart 2024
94 Takip Edilen57 Takipçiler
Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@strengthPlan I don’t know if I want the stock tied to launches. Every missed launch and rescheduled launch is going to bring down that stock price just like it does for SpaceX today.
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strengthPlan
strengthPlan@strengthPlan·
We just need Elon to announce Tesla + SpaceX merger anytime and Tesla stock is $420 tomorrow 🤯🤯🤯 #tsla
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@RandyWKirk1 74% right now say yes… that’s crazy
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Randy Kirk
Randy Kirk@RandyWKirk1·
Will Tesla and SpaceX attempt a merger
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@GtbTrade What kind of business?
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@AZ_Intel_ Does this include $TSLA share holders who had been impacted by the war?
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AZ Intel
AZ Intel@AZ_Intel_·
TRUMP: "Please let this statement serve to represent, until further notice, that from this point forth, any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls. These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do."
AZ Intel tweet media
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Cole Grinde
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions·
Are you waiting for $TSLA to drop below $300 or waiting for it jump above $350 before buying? 👀
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Dom
Dom@CodmicoInvests·
🟢 $TSLA! We are back baaaaaabeeee 🤣🤣
Dom tweet media
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
Just finished the Tesla Q2 pack myself. What the numbers actually say: Record Q2 deliveries — 480k (+25% YoY). Revenue $28.2B (+26%). GAAP net income 1.1B. Cash still fortress at43.5B. Energy back — 13.5 GWh. Services hit record profitability. TTM revenue finally cleared $100B. That’s the good side. The other side is the one the tape already priced: operating income only $0.4B (1.4% margin, −57% YoY). Capex 5.8B. Free cash flow −1.1B. They’re spending into Cybercab, Robotaxi, Optimus, Semi, Megapack — for real. Liquidity isn’t the problem. Timeline and proof are. So where should the stock be? Not on today’s earnings alone. At ~$320 you’re still paying ~300× TTM GAAP earnings and ~11× sales. That’s not a car company multiple. That’s auto + energy cash engine + a multi-year AI/robotics option. If I strip the option and only pay for the cash engine: more like the 180–250 world. If I give them premium compounder credit for volume, energy, services, and FSD growth — but haircut the near-term margin/FCF hit: ~280–380, center of gravity around ~350**. If Robotaxi/Cybercab/Optimus actually scale: the market can re−rate back toward **415–$490. That’s a delivery story, not a “Q2 beat so buy the dip” story. I’m sitting ~$320. On the print, that’s roughly “fundamentals OK, narrative haircut” — not cheap, not absurd. But my desk map is invalidated under 338. Fair value-ish is not an entry. I don’t force size into broken structure because the cash pile is big. Numbers say mid-$300s is a honest home if the franchise just compounds. 400+ has to be earned by AI/fleet proof and margin repair. Sub−300 is the market saying the option is late or wrong. Process first. The IR Update is why this name can matter for years. The chart is why I’m not a buyer here. NFA: my work, my levels, my risk.
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
$RKLB Rocket Lab’s published quarterly results show a company scaling revenue and gross margin while remaining GAAP loss-making and investing heavily. The balance sheet after the ATM is a strategic asset. The H2 2026 launch book is busy on Electron with Neutron as the binary narrative catalyst. NFA: For trading: treat financials as the reason the name can re-rate higher over years; treat the chart as the reason not to force size at ~$70 without structure.
Aaron tweet media
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@AVHalo @elonmusk Yeah, I’m tracking Hermes capabilities, but I want this natively built into Grok so I don’t have to use third-party applications.
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
S&P 500 Winners & Losers Today
Aaron tweet media
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
$TSLA after ≥10% single-day drops (~20 events) Avg from the close of the crash day: 1d +3.3% · 5d +7.2% · 20d +16.6% · 60d +47.9% Medians also green. Win rates high — but paths are violent (one −12% day was still −22% three months later). $GOOGL after ≥7% days (only ~8 events) 1d ~flat · 5d slightly red · 20d/60d positive on average. Small sample. I don’t treat it like TSLA. $QQQ after ~2% down days Modest grind higher historically — thinner edge, especially post-2022. Today: TSLA ~−14% qualifies. QQQ ~−2% is garden-variety. GOOGL deep but close/close may sit just inside/outside −7%. Averages ≠ a trade. AI-spend narrative + oil/vol is not the same regime as every past flush. NFA · research only
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Tezlar
Tezlar@na_option·
It’s a nothing bounce until we trade over the open price $TSLA
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
@na_option Not at that price. I’m waiting for 290.
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Tezlar
Tezlar@na_option·
Not ONE fucking buyer $TSLA
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Aaron
Aaron@stockswithaaron·
QQQ today, explained with crayons: Down ~2.3% vs yesterday. Almost nothing is lifting it. A few industrials brought a juice box. Mega-cap brought a wrecking ball. Drags (the villains): TSLA −14% · GOOGL −7% · AMZN −5% · META/MSFT not far behind Lifts (the heroes?): HON… CSX… MU… Yes. That’s the cavalry. Bring a sandwich; they’ll be a while. Split tape is dead. This is a full mega dump with oil + vol still bid. HOSTILE tape. Empty action queue is the flex. (NDX-weight approx - not official QQQ holdings. For entertainment + desk notes.) 📎 chart
Aaron tweet mediaAaron tweet media
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