iletmynutshang

An ex-OpenAI researcher is running a $5.5B hedge fund with 16% allocated to $BE, with strong conviction in distributed power solutions for AI infrastructure. The portfolio is also heavily concentrated in $CRWV (up 10%), $LITE, and $INTC, all tied to the buildout of next-generation compute and optical connectivity. Taken together, the positioning reflects a clear bet on the power, networking, and silicon layers supporting the AI data-center expansion cycle. It is fair to say the strategy is working so far. No... wait. That's an understatement.

There is currently a ~9% chance of there being a Hantavirus pandemic this year 🦠 $MRNA $NVAX $JNJ $INO $PFE

$FCEL vs $BE FCEL has basically their entire backlog in S Korea. They have ~60 MW site that has been running since 2013. I believe that site was the world's biggest until 2021 when another project in S Korea eclipsed it at ~78 MW. BE is currently working on a ~80 MW facility in S Korea that should be the biggest when that is complete. BE has ~1.5 GW deployed FCEL has ~1 MW deployed Based on this, I would assume there should be valued ballpark similarly - maybe BE is 4x the size of FCEL. Yet BE is valued at ~44b and FCEL at ~300m. There are two reasons: - FCEL was pursuing a PPA model where they incurred debt, built their own plants, and then sold the electricity to utilities. Meanwhile, BE is more of a book and ship model. - FCEL uses molten carbonate, while BE uses solid oxide. The BE tech is more compact and modular and quicker to deploy. These two things combined resulted in BE backlog exploding to ~20b, while FCEL is a mere ~1b. To me, these don't seem like insurmountable issues where this gap is set in stone. They are in fact pivoting to a model closer to BE and have a couple of AI wins under their belt. There was a pretty sizeable one announced in Jan, and I still think the market failed to take that data point into account.

Weekly Chart Analysis: $NVDA 165-175 demand held through the downturn. Weekly compression under this overhead resistance looks primed and ready for a big move in the coming weeks/months. ER coming up. Breakout and expansion will likely lead to new ATHs. Risk is loss of demand.

Groupon $GRPN thesis: