justin

The universal principles of truth are seven.

@ektrit Infallible as ever

It happened in 2026 ektrit.substack.com

@ektrit @aeste015 Withdrawal means US lost the war And most stockpiles of weapons depleted because of parts embargo, no second round? This was the Wests last gasp Iran new elevated position of power in ME as choke point controller Biggest US defeat in it’s history

@strengthkey8801 @aeste015 No, no. Good part of if deep state wants total withdrawal.

America is at risk of not existing by 2045 if it doesn't do wars to control supply chains. The only portion of the government which is keenly aware of that is the U.S. Military, the rest, including the deep state recently, live in a fantasyland. ektrit.substack.com

@ektrit @aeste015 I believe you said the US military was trying to sink MAGA with inflation at the polls Now the war is on pause at request of Republicans because of midterms Basically neutering CentCom No end to this madness

@aeste015 Not an opinion. I'm seeing what's happening. It happened fairly recently. Last 3 months.

@vtchakarova Excellent analysis, You are a lone voice in the wilderness, appreciate your hard work to get the message out of what’s next

Day 63 of Global System Rupture. The Strait is “open.” Three vessels transited today. Pre-war baseline: 120–140/day. Exxon’s CEO confirmed yesterday the market has absorbed none of the real shock yet. Middle East output is down 750,000 bpd and the SPR buffer that masked the first wave is expiring. Brent peaked at $126. The next move is up, not down. Meanwhile the cascade everyone is underweighting: fertilizer prices are 36% above pre-war levels, urea could hit $996/st by October under extended disruption, and a Farm Bureau survey of 5,700 farmers published this week found 70% cannot afford the inputs they need for the 2026 crop. The 2027 harvest failure is being planted or rather, not planted right now. Ras Laffan took a direct hit on March 18. Qatar’s LNG capacity is down 17% with a 3–5 year repair horizon. SABIC Jubail struck. Bangladesh fertilizer factories are offline. India cut production at three urea plants. The UN puts 9.1 million additional people in Asia on acute food insecurity watch. These are not forecasts. They are current conditions. Insurance premiums are 20x pre-war levels. Mines remain uncleared & US says six months minimum. The strait is declared open and functionally closed simultaneously. That contradiction is the system. It is not resolving. It is deepening into institutionalized bifurcation, and the window for middle power positioning is closing faster than most governments are moving.

@izakaminska Wow! Looking forward to it

4/ I have to sleep now but I will be back tomorrow with an explainer of how this all potentially links to the UAE and the forthcoming creation of a yuandollar system that emulates the original Eurodollar one. Especially if it draws on Asian and Middle Eastern hubs as trusted liquidity distribution centers.

🏴‍☠️1/ If what I think is happening is really happening, then I can make some predictions. Especially about incoming European problems. But first an important side story, which also relates to the “special relationship”. What a lot of people don’t know is that when Minos Zombanakis, the father of the Eurodollar market, started looking for a hub for his offshore dollar operation in Europe, he originally hoped Brussels not London would be its base. That’s because Brussels was the home of NATO. This was not to be. As Andrew Hilton (city veteran) once told me, the Belgian central bank refused to give approval. Zombanakis next turned to Paris, but the BdF also rejected him. Finally, he turned to London. As Hilton tells the story “they [aka the BoE] didn’t put any obstacles in his way.” The rest, as they say, is history. London Eurodollar clearing became a trillion dollar business, over which Brexit fights would eventually be fought. In no time at all Stanley Yassukovich (at the time representing investment bank White Weld), as well as a number of other American banks, got approvals to set up euromarket operations in the square mile. Why did no other central banks want to say yes? Officially, they were concerned about financial stability. In reality, they knew what a dollar tap in their jurisdictions signified for their own monetary sovereignty. Their currencies would never be their own again, because European corps would always find it more cost effective to fund in dollars. This was all the more the case in any economy operating a dirigiste policy. They feared price discovery through competition. Eurodollars didn’t just bypass monetary control — they undermined the system of domestically captive finance that governments relied on, raising funding costs and exposing fiscal policy to external market discipline. It also translated to pressure on the gold price in ways that increasingly drained reserves. Which brings us back to the special relationship. Why did London say yes when nobody else would? Probably because it had no choice. It was just after Suez, which made the nature of capital flows and dependencies abundantly clear.

@TheMichaelEvery Bravo!! You nailed the future once again, years ahead of almost anybody

@ektrit Does this mean Congress is going to defend supply chains over finance

Congress is back to mattering again. Meaning Congress is back to bothering making decisions, unlike before when they just rubber stamped what the Deep State or the Presidency put forward after consensus. ektrit.substack.com

@vtchakarova I have tried to subscribe to your account on substack There is no option to add paid access I have other accounts I pay for, so am not unfamiliar with the app You do great work, just letting you know there is possibly an issue with your account

Read the manual open.substack.com/pub/velinatcha…

The crisis narration is unfolding just as I outlined for you already a month ago: the systemic risk of physical scarcity started in oil & gas, spread to fertilizers, petrochemicals, sulphur, metals etc. & is arriving in food. CB can‘t fight supply shock!

@vtchakarova @BrunoTertrais @MarkUrban01 I have tried to subscribe to your account on substack There is no option to add paid access I have other accounts I pay for, so am not unfamiliar with the app You do great work, just letting you know there is possibly an issue with your account

@BrunoTertrais @MarkUrban01 The Austrians called it first 😅 You‘re late to the party.

It’s a Schrödinger’s Strait.

@vtchakarova @TrendsTailRisks I have tried to subscribe to your account on substack There is no option to add paid access I have other accounts I pay for, so am not unfamiliar with the app You do great work, just letting you know there is possibly an issue with your account

@TrendsTailRisks I just provided a big update for the subscribers on Substack and X what has happened and what's next.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a direct product of the step-by-step sequencing logic driving the US-Iran negotiation. Iran closed the Strait as its primary leverage instrument after the US-Israeli attack on Iran on March 2 and together with the destruction of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, it was the asymmetric pressure tool that spiked oil above $119, unleashed the fourth systemic risk-driven multiplicative cascading crisis and imposed real economic pain on the global economy and trade. The sad reality is also that the European powers had nothing to do directly with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The facade of talks and announcements from today are meant for internal audience only.

@ektrit More War Economy

@GordoCDA Welcome back

Something historically big is cooking. Got a feeling 2026 is just getting warmed up…

@mercoglianos @BBC Didn’t recognize you with out the fun shirt

Just hoped on with @BBC to discuss dueling blockades between the US and Iran.

@ektrit War economy as you say

@ektrit Glencore and the rest,