strictrope
312 posts
strictrope
@strictrope
Zephyr fanboy. Bagholding $MU, $DRAM, $INTC
in Jamaica with bubbleboi Katılım Kasım 2019
474 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.
My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.
I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:
- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”
And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.
But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.
And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.
I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.
Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.
Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
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Market seems to go up when I listen to @johnsummit so that's what I'm going to do all day
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@strictrope @Evan_ss6 @WazzCrypto For what it’s worth, I’m still a fanboy. You’re crushing it. 💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼
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@Evan_ss6 @WazzCrypto Thx bro. Zooming out to YTD is how I'm managing to stay positive haha 😂. Mainly memory options. Basically went all in memory when Micron went to ~$300
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@strictrope @WazzCrypto Same bro. Curious what you are / were in to run it up so hard? Know the drawdown sucks but zooming out, you’re doing great
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现在美股有一个奇怪的现象
韩国指数（ $KOSPI）天天暴跌
美国半导体疯狂下杀
但是，标普500却原地踏步不动
距离标普500 6月2号所创立的最高点仅仅只有1.2个百分点
这一切的一切 让我有种重回2024年的感觉
2024年夏季也曾出现过类似的走势——当时日元套利交易的解除，杠杆买盘最汹涌的科技股首当其冲遭遇了抛售。而市场中其他绝大多数股票受到的冲击较小。
当时
$SOXX 在短期内（7月底至8月5日左右）累计跌幅约20-24%
$NVDA 作为AI/芯片核心，跌幅突出。短期内从高点回调显著（一度超15-29%），8月5日前后单日跌约6.4%。它被视为carry trade融资的典型高杠杆标的，平仓压力直接放大跌幅
AMD、Broadcom 等跟随大跌；Intel 等因自身财报问题雪上加霜。
韩国SK Hynix（HBM内存重要供应商）跌幅大（单日超8-10%）；Samsung 也明显下跌；台湾TSMC 跌超5%
后面发生了什么
8月6号市场企稳之后 仅仅一周的时间，市场迅速反弹 并完全收复失地。
不知道这次能否历史又一次重演
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@strictrope Appreciate that
But u can't hold through 75% drawdowns
Get out early, and wait for the next opportunity
x.com/zephyr_z9/stat…
Zephyr@zephyr_z9
I think multiples will start compressing for the semis names as investors get more ways to play the AI trade
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strictrope retweetledi
$SKHY 4.87x. You gotta be kidding me.
Even lower than $MU at 5.56x.
At these levels, they can buy back the entire company in just ~4 years. Shortage until 2030.
Pure madness.
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@Bayes_Baller @DeepDishEnjoyer @citrini @TheStalwart @RJCcapital Honestly this is kind of how I feel. My biggest lesson last year was I was selling too early. This year my lesson might be I'm selling to late but I believe we are just getting started with AI and really memory and semi companies are really the only ones making real money.
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@DeepDishEnjoyer @strictrope @citrini @TheStalwart @RJCcapital There’s zero chance they’ve actually thought about it like this, it’s just numbers on a screen
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@strictrope @TheStalwart @RJCcapital Will you hate yourself more if you sell now and it would have been worth 30 again at the end of the year or if you don’t and it’s back to 1.2
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@RampCapitalLLC @RJCcapital I would like to have said same, but I didn't 😭
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@strictrope @RJCcapital I would have simply sold at the top
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