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Sulekh
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Sulekh
@sulekh
International Affairs Media and Communication
Los Angeles Katılım Nisan 2009
880 Takip Edilen506 Takipçiler
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Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year.
And fewer last year than the year before.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history.
And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.
France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.
BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.
The brand is in FREEFALL.
Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.
And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.
Let me say that differently:
Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.
The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service."
So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.
Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.
The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.
And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.
So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.
On 365 times earnings.
Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.
I think this stock goes down 90% from here.
Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.
A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.
I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:
When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.
I can see the seams.
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Approval of Trump's handling of the economy, per the newest Reuters/Ipsos poll, is now lower than at any time during the Biden admin. reuters.com/world/us/trump…

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@jbulltard1 just in case if you missed it.
NN@NnPnemck
No one is ever going to believe us when we try to explain President Trump to future generations 😂🤣
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hehehehe. Everyone all in on the grift.
Jerry Capital@JerryCap
moonbases payments will be processed by $FOUR
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😂😂😂😂 An optimist must optimize forever.
Earl of FrunkPuppy@28delayslater
Tesla’s evolving robot story Optimus -> Digital Optimus -> TerafOptimus 🤔
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Forget Optimus where is Robotaxi...ok forget robotaxi where is the goddamn fully functional FSD.
Devon Guerrero@DevonGuerrero
Forget Terafab...where's Optimus??
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terrafade. That's what is likely to occur to another pie in the sky grift.
Macfarlane@macfarlanemoney
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It may cost 2X when compared to a Diesel/ ICE semi that also have a similar lifespan. All the savings get paid upfront. Once @Tesla semis become available at scale for a sustained period of time, we will know if there are any tangible cost savings.
Whole Mars Catalog@wholemars
Tesla Semi battery pack is designed for a million mile lifespan
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