Sunder Katwala

My interview in today's Guardian on identity: patriotism and flags, control and compassion on asylum & racism online and offline

@RobertJenrick The only thing the ONS population projections tell us is the average level of net migration pre-spike under the last govt. The stats take no account at all of current govt policy or trends or anything else, except the mid-2025 figure of 205k is 1/10th retrospective average.

We were reminded once again this week that there are plenty of people in our country who despise us. We don’t need more thoughts and prayers. We need deportations. A lot of them. In the last fortnight alone an Afghan gang, masterminded by an asylum seeker was estimated to be behind the theft of 62,000 phones. A Nigerian migrant who raped a teenager after using human rights law to dodge deportation for a previous “sexually motivated” attack was jailed for 17 years. And three asylum seekers from Iran and Egypt, living in a taxpayer-funded hotel, were found guilty of raping a woman on Brighton beach. Then, on Wednesday, a Somali-born man is suspected of having attacked Jews in Golders Green. It followed the fire-bombing of an ambulance last month in an attack claimed by an Iranian-linked group, Ashab al Yamin. After this latest assault on our people, we don’t need hollow statements from former prime ministers who waved in deranged and dangerous people. Or warnings about “turning inwards” from others when our open borders have proved deadly. We need to stop allowing random people from cultures that hate us to flood into our country and stay here. And we need those people who hate us to leave. Voluntarily, ideally. Or forcibly deported by the Government if necessary. It’s that simple. We cannot keep living alongside people who want to harm us and leech off our generosity. There are far too many people who use the UK as a playground for their criminality and as a platform to exact revenge for their perceived grievances. In many cases they have brought with them a disdain for our country and its history, medieval attitudes towards women, and a hatred of Jews that will take generations to shift. Reform UK appears to be the only party that understands this. Zia Yusuf has said that if the Golders Green attacker is found guilty, he would use the Home Secretary’s power under the British Nationality Act 1981 to strip him of his citizenship and deport him from our shores. Just like we will do with the parents of Axel Rudakabanu, who were complicit in the Southport killings.  And as Nigel said this week, a Reform Government will stop the unvetted men in small boats in months. Those here illegally will be deported. End of. Instead of getting rid of the odious characters we have become all too familiar with, this Government is intent on doing the opposite. The Office for National Statistics forecasts that by 2034 nearly 7.2 million people will move here from overseas. It would be the definition of insanity to double down on the disastrous three decades of mass migration which have left us all poorer and less safe. I do not think our country – our traditions, mores, and way of life – could survive another surge of people in such a short period. We are at a crossroads. We cannot keep living like this. Parents, fearful of taking their kids to school past illegal migrant hotels. Women, worried about the rape gangs that continue to exist to this day. And British Jews, looking over their shoulders as they go about their lives, and planning to leave. We either resign ourselves to perpetual insecurity, or we grow a backbone. What is required is tough. Some will scream it’s illiberal. So be it. The extreme liberalism we currently have is failing spectacularly. The sad truth is we are condemning our country to decades of this hell. To save it, we have no choice but to be uncompromising.

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Best they could do would be: - Model 90k, 160k, 230k, 300k (to illustrate that migration is the main known unknown] - Have Migration Advisory Committee set out which current policy mix is heading to. [That is the missing bit that you obvs initially thought they'd already done]

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag best we can do is forecast from the existing trend. without huge policy shifts all that'll happen is small, short term trend deviations

The threat now is that, having lost rising immigration is a means to scare voters, the hard right voices of British politics will find an even more extreme policy to promote ✏️ @sundersays buff.ly/zsZOMcS

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Of course there will, in either direction. But you were clearly not aware the ONS population model contains no migration analysis at all for post-2026, simply a single datapoint plugging in the 2010s average, updating it later once the facts differ in 2027-28

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag you're too focused on your process details to see the broader point...yes the model is based on incomplete data...but all projections are...there will be future changes you haven't considered that'll affect immigration numbers

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag There are no "guesses"; there is no analysis at all of for example of any recent changes in policy, context or flows. It does what it says - it is just a modelled scenario if future replicated the past average; it is not a forecast or prediction or analysis beyond that

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag You just misunderstand their method. Their model involves no data/analysis except the historic average of 7 of the last 10 years. By design, no analysis at all of changes in current flows, current policies beyond plugging in 2010-19 average {2013-21 + 2025] for 24 years

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Involves no analysis at all of future patterns - change this year, as already so below average - model all future years at average of [7 of last ten years; but update it later if it isn't - but leave out 3 of those years because the results would be too incredible.

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Yes - but I doubt you knew their method from your replies. All they do for 2027-2030 is report the 2013-21 + 2025 average (omitting 2022-24). No attempt to gauge current flow or policy impact: you were clearly under the impression it is their best "guess" of that.

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag March 2025 (OBR). They did not repeat it in March 2026 (reality close to low) OBR to use ONS stats this Autumn (which may help govt fiscal in short-run). Both OBR + ONS explicitly warn their models do *not* update projections for the impacts of recent policy change impacts

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag well...all projections are guesses, but I'll take the ONS's over 'trust me bro'. The policy changes will have a reaction sure, but prob then a rebound as the type of migration changes in adjustment to them

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag The 2027 number is obviously wrong by treating 2026 as a one-off dip. The 2030 recovery would probably require some policy liberalisation & current govt policy is tightening on students, settlement (though it may soften again, settlement, EU youth). Future gvts unknown

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag ONS (2024-based projections): Long-term assumption is 230,000 net migration per year from mid-2027 onwards (lowered from 340,000 in prior projections). This is the stabilized medium-term figure used for population planning.

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag The projections are out of date and clearly wrong for 2026 and 2027. The OBR explain not updating them in March as policy still being developed. The fiscal cost is £19 bn in their model so the delay is convenient for the Treasury

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag medium-term (2026-2030): official projections show net migration stabilising in the 200-300k range annually after that short-term dip... increasing to 240-350k after 2030

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag In the mediumterm it does. In 2026, net migration will fall to about zero + maybe below. In 2027, it is more likely an outflow. Then it depends on policies Some of 2026-27 is emigration spike - mainly ex-students other foreign-nationals; somewhat misunderstood in media/politics

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag we shall see...that depends on what kind of governments we get in the coming years

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag The numbers staying on after their studies rose (to about 40%) but most for +2 years. That can be a bridge to a further work visa and settlement, but much harder with new thresholds. So the post-study graduate visa students will be a big part of why net emigration likely 2027

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag yes, but re students they're a replenishing population, with a decent proportion of each intake settling

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag If you are also intending to not count the children of the migrant-citizens as natives, your outflow number may be double what you intend/imagine it to be.

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag the interpolated UN figures do raise a fair point that not all the 150k passport holders will be native, but nevertheless, we are still losing a high number of natives a year & amassing large numbers of foreign nationals

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Naturalised citizens aren't "natives" but fine to use it for their children. Student migration is complex in how it nets off over time. Big post-Covid inflow spike, leading to an emigration spike 3-5 years later. Inflows 2026 falling too, by a sixth/quarter so 2022-25 distinct

@sundersays @TheNewWorldmag they aren't my figures... they're the ONS's & your comment re students only makes sense if you believe this was the only year in which students entered the country at these levels even with net migration we lose 150k natives & gain 200k foreigners a year

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag Your immigration figures exaggerate too, in that over a third are international students, most of whom will be in the foreign national emigration data in 3-5 years time, while some will stay + settle, though it will be harder to do that in future given visa salary thresholds

@194theNod @TheNewWorldmag A significant share of British-citizen emigrants include naturalised citizens from countries such as Poland and Bangladesh, who were migrants to UK 6-10+ years earlier. Some British-born citizens of migrant/minority heritage among emigrants too. unherd.com/2025/12/are-we…

@1867ben So accumulation of due process errors about laws & powers of different kinds at different points (though on 4 out of 10 points, the uni case rejected). The common feature is OfS priority to finding & making an example is unlawful prejudgment. Securing policy change was a remedy

@1867ben If you read the judgment it is clear about govt intent and the practical unworkability of the alternative propositon on "governing documents" (ground 1). The uni do have an active duty to then comply in practice too, but OfS did not consider the changes made (grounds 3a, 5 and 6)

This FSU tweet misdescribes all core features of this judgment. - judgment makes clear it is not sbout Stock. - judgment shows why OfS/FSU argument about broad OfS powers was clearly not the intent of the act - FSU already intervened; its case rejected - wrong re consequences

FSU as a campaign group v approved of new regulator making an exemplary case of Uni of Sussex. But judgment shows OfS exceeded its regulatory powers, misdirected itself on law, failed to consider remedy of policy change to protect academic freedom, prejudged case to set example

Read the judgment judiciary.uk/judgments/the-…