shduq12
2.4K posts


Most insightful comment I've seen on this war.

ビットコインは戦争開始の合図とともに下がった。 また下がるのかよって感じだが、 「今、ビットコインは何待ちなのか?」 ズバリ、クラリティ法案である。 もう今年の春先が成立の目安だ。 ※2025年7月に成立済みのジーニアス法案では足りない 今、直近で最も注目すべき材料である。 なぜか? ジーニアス法案が市場の法的土台だとしたら、 クラリティ法案は資金流入の水道管だから。 いつ成立するのか? 財務長官ベッセント氏は「極めて重要」と発言し、春の署名を目標に挙げている。 リップルCEOのブラッド・ガーリングハウス氏も「4月末までに成立する確率を80〜90%」と非常に楽観的。 CFTC委員長も「成立は目前」と発言。 上院議員バーニー氏も4月前通過を予測。 Polymarketなどの予測市場では、2026年内の成立確率が70〜82%前後で推移している。 もし成立すると・・・ 数兆ドル規模の伝統資本が爆発的に増える導線になる。 銀行マネーや年金マネーが流入するためにCLARITY法案は必要不可欠なのだ。 昨年のバブル時に入ってきた資金は「法制度が完全でなくてもリスク許容度の高い資金」であった。 あれでもほんの微量でしかなかったのだ。 本流がきたらあんなもんじゃ済まない。 私が常々発信している「1ビットコイン=1億円」の時代が来るとみているのはこういった背景があってこそなのだ。 総括するとクラリティ法案成立は「2026年4-5月が最も現実的な通過・署名タイミング」という楽観ムードが強い。 しかしこれによって即資金流入する訳ではない。 銀行資金が動くためには、SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 の撤廃・修正が必要だったり、 年金マネーが動くためには、Department of Labor 401(k) Crypto Guidance の撤回・緩和が必要だったり、 次なる課題は出てくる。 ビットコインに課されている課題は明確なのだ。 今後も本当に重要な材料に絞りながら、 進展があり次第、共有して参ります。 PS. 現状、固定ポストにある「ビットコイン購入戦略」の条件を満たしているので、 私は毎日のようにビットコインを仕込んでます。 次なるバブルでビットコインはいよいよ伝統的な金融業界に切り込みにいく事になる。 そのきっかけの序章が今年の春先(2026年4-5月)に迫っている。 そんなお話でした。


BTC 在这个三角形结构内,大概率是向上突破变盘,还是向下变盘奔四? 先说我的预判:从链上数据、多空量能强弱和3月的利空预期来判断,我认为BTC选择向下变盘并开启一波中线下跌趋势的概率更高,80%的概率!判断的逻辑已经在下面引用的推文《一波反弹又要结束,BTC要立马跌破六万直接奔四了吗?”》中写得很清楚了: 1)现货ETF机构连续四个月净流出; 2)订单薄上的委托买盘的金额很少; 3)最近20天的四小时级多头量能衰减; 4)反弹行情属于周线级别第4浪死猫反弹; 另外,我还需要增加一个潜在的利空消息: 5)美联储在3月份降息的概率几乎为零。这个预期的利空消息将成为做市商在3月中上旬发动一波中线下跌趋势行情的有力导火索! 基于以上五点的分析逻辑,我认为BTC在3月15日之前选择向下变盘的概率很高! 你认为BTC在3月15日之前的变盘方向是向下还是向上反弹?说说你的观点和看法。

Introducing the $EGG Something new, built with intent. The $EGG doesn’t reveal itself on day one, it can hatch later. The egg is not a disposable launch. It’s a mutable token designed to evolve. If you’re expecting the usual pump/fade/relaunch cycle, this won’t interest you. The structure we’re going for allows for progression. That’s all you need to know for now. - Why are we launching on Sapien.gg ? The ‘old’ launch playbook is super exhausted (Snipers/Bots/Tiny Liquidity/PVP to name a few issues). We’re not doing that again. $EGG launches on Sapien because their tech gives us what we need: * No sniping * No botting * Reviewed early participants * Controlled distribution * Mutable token infrastructure Assuming distribution matters, then control & curation definitely matters too. - How it works Phase 1. Gathering (now) Early access to the $EGG is earned. If you want in early, you have to: * Post about $EGG on X. Why do you want to get in? Make sure to share a link to the whitelist and QRT this post for further people to be able to apply and discover the egg. * Then apply to the Sapien whitelist. No contribution, no early access. Applying does not guarantee an entry either. Each applicant will be carefully reviewed based on his applicaton details. Link to apply : sapien.gg/whitelist/vEbq… It’s a simple yet very efficient filter. For example, If someone won’t even read this blurb fully, they won’t be early and… we don’t want them early anyway. Phase 2. Launching As mentioned the launch happens on Sapien. Technically, a Raydium pool is created directly when you launch on Sapien, but participation stays exclusively on their UI until the launch completes. The sequence is as such: 1. The pool is initially seeded by wallets controlled by the $EGG. This creates liquidity depth and prevents concentrated positions from becoming threats. This is obviously needed, and we’re certainly revealing it transparently beforehand. 2. Whitelists participants (1 wallet each, based on applications) can enter. 3. After that, a limited public window opens, still on Sapien. Then, we finish the sale and are traded normally everywhere on Solana. Precise timing and updates will ONLY be shared in the $EGG X community x.com/i/communities/… 3. The After Not everything is revealed in this post. The $EGG is mutable. A couple of things we can already say. It can hatch. It can hatch more than once. Future utility shall we activate it won’t be explained on day one. Assuming the $EGG spawns a new meta (it’s more than time for something new, being very honest), it won’t be based on spam or speed, but on curation and adaptability. If that resonates, apply. If not, thank you for taking the time to read anyway and see you on the other side. The $EGG team.

Introducing the $EGG Something new, built with intent. The $EGG doesn’t reveal itself on day one, it can hatch later. The egg is not a disposable launch. It’s a mutable token designed to evolve. If you’re expecting the usual pump/fade/relaunch cycle, this won’t interest you. The structure we’re going for allows for progression. That’s all you need to know for now. - Why are we launching on Sapien.gg ? The ‘old’ launch playbook is super exhausted (Snipers/Bots/Tiny Liquidity/PVP to name a few issues). We’re not doing that again. $EGG launches on Sapien because their tech gives us what we need: * No sniping * No botting * Reviewed early participants * Controlled distribution * Mutable token infrastructure Assuming distribution matters, then control & curation definitely matters too. - How it works Phase 1. Gathering (now) Early access to the $EGG is earned. If you want in early, you have to: * Post about $EGG on X. Why do you want to get in? Make sure to share a link to the whitelist and QRT this post for further people to be able to apply and discover the egg. * Then apply to the Sapien whitelist. No contribution, no early access. Applying does not guarantee an entry either. Each applicant will be carefully reviewed based on his applicaton details. Link to apply : sapien.gg/whitelist/vEbq… It’s a simple yet very efficient filter. For example, If someone won’t even read this blurb fully, they won’t be early and… we don’t want them early anyway. Phase 2. Launching As mentioned the launch happens on Sapien. Technically, a Raydium pool is created directly when you launch on Sapien, but participation stays exclusively on their UI until the launch completes. The sequence is as such: 1. The pool is initially seeded by wallets controlled by the $EGG. This creates liquidity depth and prevents concentrated positions from becoming threats. This is obviously needed, and we’re certainly revealing it transparently beforehand. 2. Whitelists participants (1 wallet each, based on applications) can enter. 3. After that, a limited public window opens, still on Sapien. Then, we finish the sale and are traded normally everywhere on Solana. Precise timing and updates will ONLY be shared in the $EGG X community x.com/i/communities/… 3. The After Not everything is revealed in this post. The $EGG is mutable. A couple of things we can already say. It can hatch. It can hatch more than once. Future utility shall we activate it won’t be explained on day one. Assuming the $EGG spawns a new meta (it’s more than time for something new, being very honest), it won’t be based on spam or speed, but on curation and adaptability. If that resonates, apply. If not, thank you for taking the time to read anyway and see you on the other side. The $EGG team.


stop overthinking this game when $BTC drops below 200 MA - buy when it crosses back above - hold that's it



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