Surjit Bhalla

7.1K posts

Surjit Bhalla

Surjit Bhalla

@surjitbhalla

Former Executive Director, IMF for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Economist, cricket junkie, policy wonk, and film (all woods, old and new) enthusiast

New Delhi, India Katılım Ocak 2013
623 Takip Edilen67.8K Takipçiler
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HindolSengupta
HindolSengupta@HindolSengupta·
Saudi Arabia gets 3x the number of tourists India gets. For all our pride in our culture and history, we cannot avoid blame for being ill-mannered, and with apalling infrastructure in many places, and dirt and filth in many places. We must have the honesty to accept this.
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Nav Toor
Nav Toor@heynavtoor·
🚨BREAKING: Stanford proved that ChatGPT tells you you're right even when you're wrong. Even when you're hurting someone. And it's making you a worse person because of it. Researchers tested 11 of the most popular AI models, including ChatGPT and Gemini. They analyzed over 11,500 real advice-seeking conversations. The finding was universal. Every single model agreed with users 50% more than a human would. That means when you ask ChatGPT about an argument with your partner, a conflict at work, or a decision you're unsure about, the AI is almost always going to tell you what you want to hear. Not what you need to hear. It gets darker. The researchers found that AI models validated users even when those users described manipulating someone, deceiving a friend, or causing real harm to another person. The AI didn't push back. It didn't challenge them. It cheered them on. Then they ran the experiment that changes everything. 1,604 people discussed real personal conflicts with AI. One group got a sycophantic AI. The other got a neutral one. The sycophantic group became measurably less willing to apologize. Less willing to compromise. Less willing to see the other person's side. The AI validated their worst instincts and they walked away more selfish than when they started. Here's the trap. Participants rated the sycophantic AI as higher quality. They trusted it more. They wanted to use it again. The AI that made them worse people felt like the better product. This creates a cycle nobody is talking about. Users prefer AI that tells them they're right. Companies train AI to keep users happy. The AI gets better at flattering. Users get worse at self-reflection. And the loop tightens. Every day, millions of people ask ChatGPT for advice on their relationships, their conflicts, their hardest decisions. And every day, it tells almost all of them the same thing. You're right. They're wrong. Even when the opposite is true.
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Surjit Bhalla
Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Does this make India more self -reliant as aspired by our leaders? Does it improve the investment climate for domestic investors? Does it increase openness? Will more FDI come in and Less FDI go out? Answers to these questions will determine whether the already precarious road to Viksit Bharat will improve.
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney

India’s China Climbdown: In a move largely aimed at China, India today eased FDI rules for countries sharing land borders with it, reversing restrictions imposed in 2020 after New Delhi discovered stealth Chinese encroachments in eastern Ladakh. The step is the latest in a series of moves by the Modi government to normalize ties with China largely on Beijing’s terms, effectively dropping its earlier demand for a restoration of the pre-2020 territorial status quo. Although rival troops disengaged at some standoff points, the “buffer zones” created often lie on areas previously patrolled by India, effectively redefining the status quo to China’s advantage. India has also begun easing visa issuance for Chinese nationals. After a five-year hiatus triggered by multiple troop clashes in Ladakh, the two countries have resumed direct passenger flights. Meanwhile, India’s finance ministry has begun scrapping the 2020 restrictions that barred Chinese firms from bidding for Indian government contracts. Greater Chinese investment in sensitive sectors — from power grids to EV infrastructure — could give Beijing potential “kill switches” or new economic leverage over Indian policy. The irony is stark. After the 2020 encroachments, India sought to “decouple” from China. Instead, it now finds itself even more dependent on Chinese supply chains, allowing China’s bilateral trade surplus with India to keep surging — already exceeding India’s entire annual defense budget.

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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Monty Python's dead parrot for youngsters - still the greatest; Ultimate corruption of peer review system was during the COVID crisis; & it is still somewhat corrupted, especially when it comes to discussion about Chinese mercantilism and China's manipulation of world trade; Don't point to the US for violation of the Rules of the Game - point to China
Iñigo San Millán@doctorinigo

For decades, peer review has been treated as the gold standard of scientific validation. Yet many scientists know the reality: the system is far from perfect. Peer review is broken and sometimes even corrupted. The process can be slow, inconsistent, and vulnerable to bias. Reviewers are sometimes asked to judge work outside their true expertise. In other cases, they may be evaluating ideas that challenge the very paradigm in which they were trained. And occasionally, reviewers are simply competitors. Ironically, the most prestigious journals can also be the most conservative. Truly new ideas are often met with skepticism, while safer work that fits the current narrative moves more easily through the system. Increasingly, papers are judged less by the originality of the idea and more by the volume of data, the sophistication of statistics, and the beauty of the figures. Science risks becoming data-rich but idea-poor. But there is an important reality to remember: journals do not ultimately decide the impact of scientific work. Impact is decided later, by the community. By the scientists who read it, test it, debate it, and cite it. In the end, citations and ideas determine the legacy of a paper, not the impact factor of the journal that first published it. Science has always advanced by questioning assumptions. Perhaps it is time we also question the system that filters scientific ideas.

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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Part II of the India Today interview at 7 pm on March 9; major point - not much impact on inflation or growth, for India or the world
IndiaToday@IndiaToday

#WestAsiaWar The world has changed, but I do think that we need not be as fearful about the economic impact as some of the estimates suggest. How long the shadow war lasts depends on what happens in #Iran; even Iran is very different now because of its internal politics: @surjitbhalla #TTP @PreetiChoudhry

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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Part I of the India Today interview at 7 pm on March 9; major point that unlike all other Arab-Israeli wars, this war is radically different - all the Arab states are with Israel and the US - hence, the consequences will be different (less negative) on world economies etc-
IndiaToday@IndiaToday

#WestAsiaWar All the Arab states are with the US — this has not been seen ever before... I think it’s very difficult to believe that this will last beyond a month: @surjitbhalla #TTP @PreetiChoudhry

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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
This is an important point you make (good sarcasm aside 😌) Political correctness is preventing analysis - there are some legitimate concerns about gender equality which need to be highlighted and emphasized - but demanding blind "equality" of numbers is stupid at best
BURKOV@burkov

This is awful, but the situation among the plumbers is even worse: women represent only about 2.1% to 5.3% of the plumbing workforce in the U.S. and below 1% worldwide. Something has to be done with this glaring inequality!

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Rajat Bhansali
Rajat Bhansali@RajatBhansalii·
@surjitbhalla The zoom-out replay was shown as well. I understand what you’re pointing at, but two fingers were clearly underneath the ball. When the ball pressed on them it can appear like it bounced off the surface - but the fingers were supporting it. That’s why it was given OUT.
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Surjit Bhalla
Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Markham was NOT OUT - even the catcher Mitchell was unsure and indicated so - The ball touching the ground for the world to see - The whole world watched and is watching - Lost interest in this World cup - After Pakistan's stunning collapse and now this? #T20WorldCup2026
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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
@RajatBhansalii is this the Rashomon effect - I saw the meat of the ball hit the ground in broad daylight
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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
Why does this happen - And no accountability? We should remember that the goal of Viksit Bharat demands that accountability happens now or else the dream would not even remain a dream; which Babu-politician is responsible for this - does she/he have a name?
Marcus Mergulhao@MarcusMergulhao

The Indian women’s football team in Australia for the AFC Asian Cup was forced to hurriedly source playing kits locally after the set of jerseys sent by AIFF was manufactured for age-group teams, and “did not fit at least 80% of the 26-member squad.” timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/ill-f…

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Surjit Bhalla@surjitbhalla·
When will they learn?
Camus@newstart_2024

Dr. Jared Cooney Horvath just delivered the brutal truth parents and educators need to face: “Even in schools, it doesn’t matter what the size of the screen is… and it doesn’t matter who bought it… All of these things are going to hurt learning, which in turn are going to hurt our kids’ cognitive development.” His core warning: Gen Z is the first modern generation to be less cognitively capable than their parents — despite more years in school. Attention, memory, literacy, numeracy, executive function, even general IQ — all declining. The culprit isn’t school itself. It’s the widespread introduction of screens and digital tools for learning. Across 80 countries, once tech floods classrooms, performance drops sharply. Kids using computers ~5 hours/day for schoolwork score over 2/3 of a standard deviation lower than those who rarely touch tech. US NAEP data mirrors it: states adopt 1:1 devices → scores plateau, then fall. The biological reality: Humans evolved to learn deeply from other humans, not screens. Screens circumvent the natural mechanisms of attention, memory consolidation, and deep processing. When the tool fails to deliver, we don’t remove it — we redefine success to fit the tool (e.g., SAT reading comprehension reduced to skimming short sentences instead of deep passages). That’s not progress. That’s surrender. The cost is a generation losing cognitive sharpness at the exact moment the world needs them sharpest. Parents, teachers, policymakers: How much longer do we let screens dictate what “learning” looks like?

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The Knowledge Archivist
The Knowledge Archivist@KnowledgeArchiv·
“Intellectuals are naturally attracted by the idea of a planned society, in the belief that they will be in charge of it.” —Roger Scruton
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