Swissblock
1.1K posts
@swissblock__
Pioneering next investment frontiers, block by block @bitcoinvector @altcoinvector @swissblock_SEM https://t.co/FzuBsdcsZQ
Midterm election years shape sentiment, but in practice they’ve also been liquidity stress tests. 2018: S&P500 -6%, BTC -73% 2022: S&P500 -19%, BTC -64% 2026 (YTD): S&P500 -4%, BTC -21% Bitcoin consistently acts as the higher-beta expression of macro conditions. It’s not just the political cycle, it’s the broader macro environment around it. swissblock.net/products/sem @swissblock__ @HenrikZeberg
The Chart of the Week: "The 72K-line which may define the next Bull Market move for Bitcoin" by @HenrikZeberg @swissblock__ Consensus is bracing for a dip, but the $BTC data tells a different story. We are seeing significant bullish coiling beneath the $71,200 - $72,000 resistance. This isn't just a level—it’s the gateway to the next phase of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Will $BTC accelerate or face another rejection? Find out why we believe a major rally is still on the table. Full video: youtube.com/watch?v=phYg8Q… swissblock.net/products/sem
European equities may be topping. What does that mean for Bitcoin? Join @HenrikZeberg , @willywoo & Yann Allemann for a Global Macro & Bitcoin Market Briefing. 🗓 Live session 🎯 Registration required 🗓 Wednesday | March 25 ⏰ 10:00 PM CET Register to get the replay before it goes on YouTube days later ↓ 2d9lav.share-eu1.hsforms.com/2oHFgimTNRZuVl…
Momentum is flashing a critical shift. We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change. The key test now is simple: can momentum consolidate above +0.5 and hold. That +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution starts giving way to expansion. Past cycles show regimes can persist for months once they flip. If it sticks, this may be more than a relief rally.
BREAKING: Gold prices fall below $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd. Gold is now down -$1,100/oz from its record high seen in January.
Private Credit: The New Subprime? In the next SEM Live @HenrikZeberg examines whether the explosive growth in private credit could become the next fault line as the cycle turns. 🗓Register to attend 🗓Wednesday | March 18 | 5:00 PM CET Register here: 2d9lav.share-eu1.hsforms.com/2oHFgimTNRZuVl…
Private Credit: The New Subprime? In the next SEM Live, @HenrikZeberg breaks down where risks may be building as the cycle turns. 📩 Register to get the full recording by email before it goes public. 🗓 Wednesday | March 18 | 5:00 PM CET 👉2d9lav.share-eu1.hsforms.com/2oHFgimTNRZuVl…
Momentum is flashing a critical shift. We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change. The key test now is simple: can momentum consolidate above +0.5 and hold. That +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution starts giving way to expansion. Past cycles show regimes can persist for months once they flip. If it sticks, this may be more than a relief rally.
Looking at the $SPX / $VIX correlation, there is a very specific signature for generational bottoms. While a VIX above 20 usually flags local dips, the real "Global Bottoms" only seem to carve out when we see extreme panic—specifically when the VIX clears the 40 mark. We saw this play out perfectly during the Yen Carry Trade, which ignited a +15% rally, and the Tariffs War, which saw the S&P 500 surge by +33%. Right now, geopolitical tensions with Iran are waking up the volatility index, but we haven't reached that "max pain" threshold of 40 yet. If history is our guide, a spike above that level wouldn't be a reason to fear, but a signal that the ultimate buying opportunity is finally here. swissblock.net/products/sem @swissblock__ @HenrikZeberg
📊 SEM Live | Market tops. A Process. Not an Event! Market tops aren’t an event. They’re a process. In the next SEM Live, @HenrikZeberg explains how late-cycle signals evolve before markets roll over and why tops take time to form. 🗓 Thursday March 5 ⏰ 5:00 PM CET 🎯 Priority access for registrants (replay shared later) 👉 Register here: 2d9lav.share-eu1.hsforms.com/2oHFgimTNRZuVl…
We’ve officially hit the longest $BTC Extreme High Risk period on record: 25 consecutive days, surpassing the 2023 peak of 23 days. As @CryptoMichNL points out regarding the BTCUSD vs. Supply in Profit/Loss chart from @glassnode , we might be carving out a bottom—perfectly consistent with current Risk Index readings. In 2023, the pivot from Extreme Risk toward Minimum Risk was the catalyst for a massive bullish rally. Are we about to see a repeat performance?
