Sam Wurzel

@sama That’s a about the energy released by one match.

also, here is one part that people not interested in the rest of the post might still be interested in:

wrote a new post, the gentle singularity. realized it may be the last one like this i write with no AI help at all. (proud to have written "From a relativistic perspective, the singularity happens bit by bit, and the merge happens slowly" the old-fashioned way)

The final NIF shot on this plot does have a lower triple product than the previous NIF data point because ignition causes the stagnation duration to go down (i.e., the plasma is blown apart more rapidly). We discuss this issue and limitations of the triple product more generally in Section III.D (p.3) of the preprint here arxiv.org/pdf/2505.03834

@CFS_energy @swurzel @ScottCHsu I like the idea and these plots generally, but this is very confusing and cluttered. For one thing, why are NIF's ignition shots in the 2020s shown as having a LOWER triple product than the shots a decade ago?

Both @swurzel and @ScottCHsu have done a great job tracking decades of progress toward net fusion energy — more power out than in. That goal, denoted Q>1, is a key step toward fusion energy commercialization. The researchers’ 2022 paper summarizes decades of results from dozens of machines. Now Wurzel and Hsu are updating their research with newer results like the National Ignition Facility’s successful demonstrations. Projected results from our own SPARC machine, which we detailed in our own physics basis research papers, appear on their plots. We plan to push first for Q>1, but the machine is designed to reach Q=11. For anyone who wants to track fusion energy progress, this unbiased assessment rises above much of the noise. Kudos to these researchers for helping it keep pace with our fast-moving industry. Read more: fusionenergybase.com/articles/conti… #FusionEnergy

If you're interested in reading more, check out our summary article on Fusion Energy Base fusionenergybase.com/articles/conti… and our preprint with all the details on arXiv, arxiv.org/abs/2505.03834

Now that NIF has crossed that threshold, we've created a new plot of scientific gain over time. You can see the results from the 1990s in tokamaks like JET and TFTR and the recent rapid progress being made at the NIF. The inset is the same data on log-linear axes.

The horizontal axis is the ion temperature, measured in kilo-electron volts (keV). 1 keV = 11.6 million degrees. Under the assumptions made in this plot, high performance requires high temperatures, period.

The vertical axis is the product of two quantities, plasma density and how long energy stays in the system. These two can be traded off! In magnetic confinement schemes the density is low and energy stays in the system for a longer time compared to inertial confinement (usually done with lasers) where the density is much higher but the time energy stays in the system is much lower. We call the product of these two quantities the Lawson parameter.

New fusion energy physics progress gif just dropped💥

@is_fusion @WalvanLierop Yes, it's General Fusion.

@WalvanLierop @swurzel, I'm guessing most of that is into General Fusion? Between private and government investments that sounds about right I think.

Indeed it is! Love to see this. #FusionEnergy #USA #China

The Global Fusion Race Is On fusionenergybase.com/article/the-gl…

Senator Manchin highlighted recent global trends in equity investments to fusion companies with a Fusion Energy Base graph in today's Full Committee Hearing to Examine Fusion Energy Technology Development. Given the interest in this graph, I've run the numbers through September 2024 and made an updated graph in the article linked below. fusionenergybase.com/article/fusion… Thanks to Andrew Holland from @Fusion_Industry for the photo!

Fusion Energy Base Jobs Search is live! fusionenergybase.com/jobs If you're at an organization developing or supporting fusion energy, email us with a link to your jobs page to be listed. contact@fusionenergybase.com Fusion Energy Base Intern Jackson Strauss built this! linkedin.com/in/jacksonstra…

Supply Chain Directory is live on Fusion Energy Base today! fusionenergybase.com/supply-chain-d… Shout out to FIA's Supply Chain Report fusionindustryassociation.org/fia-launches-2… and Proto Ventures' Enabling Commercial Fusion Report protoventures.mit.edu/fusionreport/ for insights in this emerging area!

Equity Investments to Fusion Energy Companies 2010-2023 by Country fusionenergybase.com/article/equity…

@Stefan_Urbat Fixed - thanks!

@swurzel Typo in URL Jupiter Volta with y, correct is jupitervolta.com.

Fusion Energy Base is updated! fusionenergybase.com

@_Kaliber64_ @ScottCHsu @ARPAE @AIP_Publishing Yes, of course! I'm happy to answer any questions that arise.

@swurzel @ScottCHsu @ARPAE @AIP_Publishing Great work, thank you very much. If it's alright I would like to use it for a school project?

"Progress toward fusion energy breakeven and gain as measured against the Lawson criterion" by @ScottCHsu and myself is published (open access)! GIF of achieved Lawson parameter vs temperature below shows the progress. aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.… #fusionenergy @ARPAE @AIP_Publishing

Congratulations to the teams selected for Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program! 5 out of 8 have or had a funding connection to ARPA-E: arpa-e.energy.gov/news-and-media…