System2Alpha
150 posts
System2Alpha
@system2alpha
Investor | Trader | Software Developer AI | Crypto | Personal Growth NFA | DYOR
United States Katılım Haziran 2025
93 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
@LeoYuen13 财报好也不涨, 未必是"机构早知道", 更像价格已经把未来几个季度的好消息预支光了, 财报只是来兑现预期。MU 一年从 $120 干到 $1,255, 该借的预期基本借完了。
中文
1个月时间做交易财富自由
3个月时间做交易财富自由
半年时间做交易财富自由
1年时间做交易财富自由
等等这些东西当你听多了，其实真的有这种可能吗？当然我相信这世界上肯定有非常厉害的trader，利用“极致的周转率”配合极致的心态，赚了就跑那种短线炒作是可以短时间把资金滚大，但是这种人是少之又少... 我总是会把交易/投资比作健身，难道你健身今天做了之后明天就不做吗？肌肉和核心今天练了明天就会出结果吗？道理跟你做交易/投资是一个道理... 以“慢”为核心，在这场人生马拉松的旅程中尽量避免“大亏”，小亏是没有关系的，一旦你盈亏比上来，每10笔交易有几笔是5R以上甚至10R以上，那些小亏很容易cover掉，只要你明白这个数学道理，这场旅途我不相信你不会成功的...
我2012年开始做交易，做了那么多年我从来不会跟你讲短时间致富这种事情，因为对于很多人来说很难，而且不实际的，以“慢”为核心，当你过5年，甚至10年回过头来看这趟旅程，你会发现其实你比别人跑的都快！
中文
@Money_or_Life_X 参照海平面版从 2024/8 首次热试到现在还黄着, 真空版从全程测试到 qual 变绿, 你心里的合理时长是多少?
中文
RKLB 中子火箭二级真空环境下使用的引擎发布了全流程测试视频。距离海平面版本引擎全程测试已经几乎要一年的时间了，目前整个阿基米德引擎的 qualification 在官网上依然是黄色 ongoing，希望尽快看到这个点变为绿色 完成。
有好消息很棒，但是坦白讲，阿基米德引擎 qualification 的时间比我预期的晚太多太多。
Rocket Lab@RocketLab
Archimedes second stage engine full duration burn - complete ✅ (and what a thing of beauty). The AVac (Archimedes Vacuum) engine produces 1.2x lbf of its Stage 1 variant and stands ~2.5m taller thanks to its extended nozzle optimized for the vacuum conditions of space. Recent AVac testing included a stub skirt for the nozzle. Since full length vacuum nozzles at ground level risk flow separation and instability, stub skirts are used to anchor our engineers' analysis for how the engine will perform with the full nozzle in vacuum conditions - all critical preparation for Neutron's first flight.
中文
六天前发的，以后不会再提存储了
半导体存储车上人太多了，再玩下去包翻车
看看海力士走势，我如果没收手继续带你们玩，这走势很难赢啊？我会被骂死
我自己私下能玩，但是不能带你们玩，那天我就想明白了。
华尔街没有名字@WallStreet0Name
真几把蒙对了，以后不会再提存储了 半导体存储车上人太多了，再玩下去包翻车 股票看k线交易长期下来的胜率会比黄金，比特币低很多 所以戒了。 希望你们半导体，存储被套的，能解套，发财🙏。
中文
@WallStreet0Name 索罗斯这句讲的就是反身性: 上涨本身在改写你对基本面的信心。海力士 HBM 占七八成、利润率 72% 都是真的, 白银 1 月冲顶那天基本面也一样漂亮。
中文
@sentimentrader Genuine question, is 0.32 vs 0.61 actually extreme by this indicator's own history, or just mildly divergent?
English
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-07-13)
• Smart Money: 0.32
• Dumb Money: 0.61
Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is pessimistic.
English
@aleabitoreddit The Kyber answer is the tell. SemiAnalysis flagged a backplane yield problem, and "we swapped it for a new design, just an optimization" doesn't actually rebut that. Replacing a board because it wouldn't yield is still a redesign, whatever you call it on stage.
English
So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently:
1. Jensen Huang said no delays:
- 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay.
- Debunked the rumor that the next-generation flagship, Rubin Ultra, would be delayed until 2028 and said it would be on track to ship next year
- Rack system optimizations, like replacing Kyber with a new design are architectural optimizations, not impacting delivery timelines.
2. On ASIC competition: no loss of market share.
- Talked about how a leading frontier lab that previously relied heavily on internal ASICs has shifted nearly 50% of its compute load to Nvidia
3. On over-reliance on hyperscalers.
- AI frontier labs currently contributing to ~20% of demand.
- Traditional cloud providers, Nvidia provides Vera CPUs and high-speed networking
- Sovereign AI
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.
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@jukan05 Genuine question, is that 128% a real re-rate call or partly mechanical after the stock just dropped ~13% today? And does the 8ppt ASP cut sit mostly on the non-LTA half of the book?
English
Mirae Asset Securities Korea: SK hynix’s 2Q26 operating profit estimate cut by 12%
DRAM and NAND ASP assumptions were revised down by 8ppt and 5ppt, respectively. Mirae Asset estimates that around 50% of the company’s revenue is covered by long-term supply agreements (LTAs).
- Maintains target price of KRW 4.2 million, implying 128% upside
- Rating: Buy
English
@Balder13946731 同意油站比霍尔木兹更该盯。补一个关口: 油价直接进的是 headline CPI, 但美联储真正锚定的是剔除能源的 core PCE(core Personal Consumption Expenditures 核心个人消费支出)。历史上它对油价脉冲是选择性无视的, 所以掐死降息的不是这个数本身, 是它把通胀预期重新点着, 那才是 10Y 往上爬的真燃料。
中文
Blueprint for this week 7/13/26 - 7/17/26
Citrini@citrini
Monday - war Tuesday - hot cpi Wednesday - warsh apocalypse Thursday - war over Friday - ai bull market
English
在面對市場上眾多資訊時，有兩個觀察角度供參考：
1. 他的角色是什麼：當一個人每天將大量時間用於影音製作與產出時，其角色就是內容創作者。內容創作者的獎勵機制是「內容出圈」，越激進的觀點越容易受到推薦。
2. 他是否有切膚之痛：美軍發動對伊地面戰爭，是否會對作者的財務狀況產生重大影響，如果是肯定的，這樣的觀點就可信。如果是否定的，他的看法就不可用於你的投資決策——因為他沒有切膚之痛（Skin in the game）。
這兩個觀察角度可以幫你避免絕大多數雜音。
Chen Feng@ysc188
@TheMarketMemo 雷公，给你推荐下江雪勤的观点。 里面很重要的一点是，美国已经准备好了地面入侵。youtu.be/qRCSZoGC2Dg
中文
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:
- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply
- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms
- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,
- $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity
I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi.
But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO.
A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies…
If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers.
This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.
English
大家好，现在 SPCX 跌到了 140 下方，距离破发非常近了。如果有到 135 左右，我会进行加仓。加仓的仓位必须要从 NVDA 进行置换，也就是需要卖出部分 NVDA 的股票。
整个太空板块都比较弱，大部分股票都在下跌。RKLB 开盘明确开在 80 下方，目前看来，收盘收在 80 上方的可能性也不大。继续等待，没有其他的操作计划。
DRAM 从最低点跌超过 10%，目前还反弹了一些。今天夜盘 57.3 已经加过仓了，所以暂时价格差别不大，也不会做太多动作。
最近的股市很难，太空板块不好，AI 板块也不好。但是对于我自己而言，还远远没有到大幅度减仓的时候，所以我还是以内部调换仓位为主要的方向。
对于一些今年的收益已经完全由正转负的朋友，总体上，减仓的最佳时机还是在反弹的时候，而不是下跌的时候。当然，反弹的时候可能都希望能够再涨，要去做减仓反而很难。不过，我觉得尽量避免在低点去减仓，反弹减仓是更好的选择。如果能拿住、不怕亏损到本金，也是其中一个选择。目前我觉得市场还没有那么糟糕。
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Bitcoin in 2026 is just a less volatile version of 2018.
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