t0talreturn

@FedProm What a great idea! Cannot wait to “clean” this week :)

Going through wifes jewelery. Now with gold at $5k and silver at $100 we might be rich just in jewelry. All this italian gold collecting dust!

How it feels watching AI do your job better than you can, realizing you’re a few months from falling into the permanent underclass

AI responses are ranging from $50-200B fwiw…

Asking bc I don’t know but what’s the LBO price for #greenland? Just thinking out loud, but why would Denmark/Europe be completely against? Couldn’t they solve many fiscal constraints on the region by monetizing some assets that aren’t US AI stocks??

@readswithravi Favorite bookstores and libraries you’ve visited?

I have three separate hobbies: - reading books - buying books - visiting bookstores and libraries to admire books.

@shaunrein Roosevelt corollary…

Which global markets are the local investors/strategists NOT positive going into 2026 szn? 🤔

@conorsen Going to movies again! Nice!! First step towards buying stocks, real estate, AND other consumer goods/experiences with those fat savings balances 🙃

Every now and then you understand why CEO’s in the 2000’s and early 2010’s were so excited about access to the Chinese domestic market.

@HedgieMarkets Do you think it happens slower than we all expect bc many firms will want to avoid the bad/negative PR? Feel like it’s easier for large caps/public companies vs SMEs…

🦔JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said AI will eliminate jobs but people will have other jobs if they develop the right skills. "My advice to people would be critical thinking, learn EQ [emotional intelligence], learn how to be good in a meeting, how to communicate, how to write. You'll have plenty of jobs." Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned AI could erase up to half of all white-collar jobs over the next five years. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said "AI is going to change literally every job." Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman said "you're going to want to be creative, critical thinking, and flexible. The ability to learn new things and adapt is going to be just as important as any particular skill." My Take Dimon is telling people to develop soft skills because hard skills are getting automated. The problem is those soft skills only matter if there are enough jobs left. Anthropic's CEO saying AI could erase half of white-collar jobs in five years is massive displacement happening faster than people can retrain. Companies are spending $400 billion on AI infrastructure specifically to reduce labor costs. We've seen 42% of CFOs say headcount cuts are how they prove AI ROI. Learning to communicate better doesn't help if your role gets eliminated and ten other people with the same soft skills are competing for fewer positions. Dimon saying "you'll have plenty of jobs" is optimistic given the data. Small businesses cut 120,000 jobs in November. Seasonal retail hiring hit 15-year lows. Powell said job openings might be overstated by 60,000 per month. The labor market is already weak before mass AI displacement hits. Soft skills matter, but they're not a shield against structural unemployment when entire job categories disappear. Hedgie🤗

If you don’t keep mate in your desk for days like this…are you even living!?! 🧉🧉🧉

Seeing 30-40% discounts on average across stores I’ve shopped today. Biggest discounts up to 80% and smallest aside from now discount around 15%.

@AutismCapital @realmadrid has been investing in this experience apparently, but haven’t seen what they’ve come up with yet…

Did Apple give up on the Apple Vision Pro? Spatial computing is actually incredibly awesome but there was no appetite for the AVP. There's no YouTube, Netflix, Spotify app, you can only have 1 screen on a Mac Virtual Display, it's heavy, and it costs $3500+ Do they still care? Is there still a team over there? Have they all transitioned to AR glasses instead? What's the deal?

Who was saying US couldn’t swing elections anymore?? 😆

@bespokeinvest Is tomorrow options expiration for November? Feels like these weird moves always occur around then…

Nasdaq 100 drawdown now at 8%. That was quick.

Something about the double mouse slapsssss

@HedgieMarkets So they’re cutting? Agree

🦔Goldman Sachs found that 20% of people who lost pay, lost jobs, or had hours cut turned to gig platforms like Uber and DoorDash to make up the difference. Gig workers earn only 50% to 65% as much per hour as they did in their previous traditional jobs. Companies announced over 1.1 million layoffs this year, a 44% increase from 2024, with Christmas less than five weeks away. The Labor Market Job cuts announced in October hit 153,000, the worst reading for that month since 2003. ADP showed private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week for the four weeks ended October 25. Goldman found gig hours rose the most in cities where payroll growth slowed, and 15% of people counted as unemployed or "not in the labor force" in federal data are actually doing gig work. Tech and retail led the layoffs, with Amazon, Target, and UPS making notable cuts. Goldman warned the gig economy safety net "would likely be inadequate for all job losers in a recession." My Take Christmas is five weeks away and companies just laid off over 1.1 million people while telling the ones who kept their jobs to drive for Uber at half their previous wage to make ends meet. That's not a strong labor market, that's desperation being relabeled as flexibility. When 20% of people losing hours or pay immediately turn to gig work earning 50% to 65% of what they made before, you're watching the quality of employment collapse in real time. The kicker is 15% of people officially counted as "not in the labor force" are actually working gig jobs, which means the unemployment numbers are understating how bad things are while also hiding that people are working multiple lower-paying jobs without benefits just to survive. Consumer sentiment at 50.3 with 71% expecting unemployment to rise makes sense when you see this. Heading into the holiday season with the weakest job market since 2003 for October while household debt sits at $18.59 trillion and serious delinquencies climb to 3.03% tells you why retailers like Target are already projecting Q4 sales declines. Hedgie🤗

@Jack_Raines Shhh don’t tell everyone!! It will make bottom up stock picking harder 😂

The new hot thing is "democratize access to private markets" or whatever. Plenty of publicly-traded growth stories up for grabs where you don't have to top-tick a Series E with management fees on top. Or pay someone 2 and 20 for OpenAI at $600 billion or whatever. Why not.

That’s one way to address skyrocketing cattle prices this year…

Never hit a #chatgpt upload limit before!/WOW…in 30 min went through earnings, transcripts, sell side notes, slides, etc for 6 companies and something like 90+ documents, wrote up financial analysis/notes based off style of my previous notes and also did sentiment analysis

Thanks to all the sweet #ai apps out there I can do things like this while I sit on earnings calls… #RareEarths