Tanwirovich

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Tanwirovich

Tanwirovich

@tanwirovich

EM sovereign debt, macro. Follows, RTs, likes = reminders. Tweets own opinion.

Islamabad, Pakistan Katılım Kasım 2009
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The Middle East
The Middle East@A_M_R_M1·
🚨 The waiter images that caused a stir during Trump's visit to China: "Every waiter is a trained intelligence officer or spy."
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Stephen Wertheim
Stephen Wertheim@stephenwertheim·
Trump makes three notable and unusual statements on Taiwan in this interview: 1. Trump says (twice) that Taiwan’s leader seeks independence, in part out of a belief that Taiwan has U.S. backing. 2. Trump says China might well attack Taiwan after Trump’s presidency, though not during it. Trump then says that all semiconductor manufacturing should leave Taiwan for America, because “it’s a heated situation.” 3. Trump says arms sales to Taiwan are a “very good negotiating chip for us.” It is not crystal clear whether the negotiating partner Trump is referring to is Beijing, Taipei, or both, but he mentions both parties in proximity to the statement.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

WATCH IN FULL: President Donald J. Trump's interview with @BretBaier in Beijing

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Waseem Abbasi
Waseem Abbasi@Wabbasi007·
Breaking News: Pakistan's powerful Interior Minister who is considered very close to Field Marshal Asim Munir has suddenly reached Tehran for talks for top leadership. He could be carrying key message from Pakistan leadership to Iran. Hopes for peace deal between US and Iran still alive..
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brief.
brief.@brief_pk·
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb left Habib Bank Limited in March 2024. Within twenty-six months, the ministry he now runs had completed three major sovereign financing transactions. The same two banks appeared in all three. Neither HBL nor Standard Chartered has disclosed what they were paid. Neither the ministry nor Aurangzeb has explained how they were selected. What Aurangzeb did instead, at a ceremony in Beijing on May 15, 2026, was thank HBL by name. Transaction One: The $1 Billion Syndicated Loan, June 2025 Fifteen months after Aurangzeb took office, his ministry signed a $1 billion syndicated term finance facility backed by an ADB policy-based guarantee. The guarantee was the instrument that brought commercial lenders to the table. Pakistan's credit profile could not have attracted the lending on its own terms. With the ADB covering the credit risk, the question of which banks were appointed to arrange the loan becomes worth asking. Standard Chartered was named mandated lead arranger and bookrunner. HBL was named as an arranger alongside Sharjah Islamic Bank and Ajman Bank. The arranger fee pool on a facility of this size, at standard market rates of between one and two percent, runs between $10 million and $20 million. HBL's share has not been disclosed. The ministry did not explain how HBL was selected, fourteen months after its former CEO became the minister approving the transaction. Transaction Two: The $750 Million Eurobond, April 2026 Twenty-five months into Aurangzeb's tenure, his ministry returned to international capital markets for the first time in four years with a Eurobond priced at 6.975 percent. Standard Chartered was sole bookrunner. There was no competitive bidding. The bond was placed privately with institutional investors. After a greenshoe clause was exercised, the total issuance reached $750 million, with Standard Chartered remaining sole bookrunner throughout. The underwriting fee on a transaction of this size, at standard market rates, runs between $7.5 million and $15 million, paid entirely to one bank, selected without disclosed competition, by a ministry that had already awarded that same bank a lead arranger role ten months earlier. The day after the Eurobond closed, the ministry issued a formal request for proposals inviting competitive bids from international consortia to manage future sovereign capital market transactions over the next three years. Competitive selection arrived the morning after the fees were paid. Transaction Three: The $258 Million Panda Bond, May 2026 One month later, HBL reappeared. Pakistan's inaugural Panda bond required ADB and AIIB credit-enhancement guarantees totalling $285 million to achieve a domestic AAA rating in China's investment-grade-only bond market, because Pakistan's sub-investment-grade credit standing barred entry without external cover. The guarantees backed 95 percent of principal and accrued interest, paid directly to bondholders. The oversubscription that followed reflected appetite for multilateral paper. It reflected nothing about Pakistan's standalone creditworthiness in Beijing. HBL was named financial adviser to the Government of Pakistan on the transaction. China International Capital Corporation was lead underwriter. Bank of China, Standard Chartered, and Hongta Securities were joint lead underwriters. The advisory and underwriting fee pool on a bond of $258 million, at standard market rates of two to four percent of proceeds, runs between $5 million and $10 million, shared across the fee-earning institutions. HBL's specific advisory fee has not been disclosed. The Express Tribune had reported in February 2026, months before the bond closed, that the finance ministry's own external wing formally objected to being bypassed in the Panda bond negotiations and in the hiring of consultants and foreign firms, with specific concerns raised over the process used to appoint transaction underwriters. The ministry did not respond to the Tribune's requests for comment. The bond closed anyway. HBL collected its fee. At the Beijing ceremony, Aurangzeb thanked HBL by name. He did not mention that HBL was his former employer. He did not mention that he had run it for six years. He did not mention that its appointment had not been subject to disclosed competitive selection, or that the ministry's own officials had objected to the process. Question Across three transactions in fourteen months, the ministry awarded sovereign mandates worth a combined $2 billion in face value to two banks, Standard Chartered and HBL, through processes that were either explicitly non-competitive, internally contested, or unexplained. The total undisclosed fee exposure across all three transactions, estimated at standard market rates, sits between $22 million and $45 million. The precise figure is unknown because neither the ministry nor the banks involved has published it. This is not a criminal allegation but simply a governance question with a documented answer gap. When a finance minister's former employer collects undisclosed fees on sovereign transactions his ministry structures, and when the same bank appears in all three major deals completed under his watch, and when competitive selection is introduced only after those deals close, the public is owed an explanation. The IMF's Governance and Corruption Diagnostic, published in November 2025 as a condition for loan disbursement, identified influential elite networks steering key economic sectors to their advantage and found persistent weaknesses in public procurement. Aurangzeb called it a catalyst for reform.
brief. tweet mediabrief. tweet media
brief.@brief_pk

Pakistan's Panda Bond Victory Let's dig in. Finance Minister Aurangzeb returned from Beijing this week calling Pakistan's inaugural Panda Bond a "new chapter" in economic ties with China. The markets agreed. The $250 million, yuan-denominated instrument was five times oversubscribed. What he did not mention is that the guarantees underwriting the bond totalled $285 million, which is $35 million more than the bond itself. Investors were not betting on Pakistan. They were, quite literally, covered beyond the principal. Pakistan could not access China's investment-grade-only bond market on its own. Its sub-investment-grade credit rating barred entry. ADB and AIIB together covered 95 percent of the principal and any accrued interest, paid directly to bondholders, at a combined guarantee fee of between 0.8 and 1.25 percent charged back to Islamabad. The oversubscription reflects appetite for AAA-rated multilateral paper. It reflects nothing about Pakistan's standalone creditworthiness in Beijing. China already holds roughly 22 percent of Pakistan's total external debt. Adding yuan-denominated bonds to a balance sheet already heavily weighted toward Chinese bilateral and commercial exposure is not diversification. It deepens the same concentration while appending a new currency risk: the rupee has lost substantial ground against the renminbi over the past decade, and yuan-denominated obligations grow costlier in real terms every time it does. The bond was also placed privately on the interbank market, offered only to qualified institutional investors. There was no public price discovery. Nobody knows what Pakistan's unsupported borrowing rate in Chinese capital markets actually is, because it has never been tested. On scale: $250 million against an external debt load exceeding $96 billion is arithmetic noise. The full $1 billion program, once complete, covers just over one percent of total obligations. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, while approving the guarantee structure, warned that new foreign loans should not be signed without rupee cover in the PSDP, cautioning that delays could produce another circular debt crisis. His cabinet signed this one the same week. The "reform-minded technocrat" framing that follows Aurangzeb deserves scrutiny on its own terms. For six years he ran the largest bank in Pakistan and delivered lower returns on equity, higher cost-to-income ratios, and dividends that lagged both the pre-Aurangzeb period and every comparable peer institution. HBL's sharpest performance recovery came after he left for Q-block. A man whose primary credential is banking, and whose banking record is one of value erosion, now manages the sovereign balance sheet. The Panda Bond he is celebrating, a $250 million instrument requiring $285 million in external guarantees to get in the room, is consistent with that record. The guarantee fees go to multilateral banks, the interest goes to Beijing, the debt stays in Islamabad, and the minister who arranged it spent six years doing the same thing at a smaller scale, this is not a new chapter, it is the same elite driven extraction model Pakistan has been employing since 1958.

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Bloomberg
Bloomberg@business·
The UAE tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and Qatar to take part in a coordinated military response to Iran’s airstrikes and was left frustrated when they refused, sources say bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Joumanna Nasr Bercetche
NEW from the team on how the UAE tried to persuade Qatar and KSA to join in on military action in the war ⬇️ “While MBZ quickly opted to work with US President Donald Trump’s administration and the Israelis, his Gulf Arab counterparts told him this wasn’t their war, according to one person familiar with Abu Dhabi’s thinking. An already fractious relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia worsened as a result.” @samdagher & Fiona McDonald
Bloomberg@business

The UAE tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and Qatar to take part in a coordinated military response to Iran’s airstrikes and was left frustrated when they refused, sources say bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
BREAKING: UAE discloses it’s building an additional second pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The new pipeline will be finished in 2027 and will double the country’s export capacity in Fujairah (the current pipeline has a capacity of 1.5-1.8m b/d)
Javier Blas tweet media
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Ali Hashem علي هاشم
A well-informed Iranian source has told me that Tehran has officially received the American response to Iran’s proposal, and Washington has rejected Iran’s conditions in their entirety. Iranian negotiating team included five conditions that must be met before entering into talks on the nuclear file: 1.Ending the war on all fronts 2.Lifting all sanctions 3.Releasing frozen assets 4.Compensating for war damages and losses 5.Recognition of Iran’s sovereign right over the Strait of Hormuz
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محمد بن زايد
محمد بن زايد@MohamedBinZayed·
मैंने प्रधानमंत्री नरेन्द्र मोदी का अबू धाबी में स्वागत किया, जहाँ हमारी वार्ता हमारे देशों और लोगों के बीच गहरे संबंधों को और सुदृढ़ बनाने पर केंद्रित रही। संयुक्त अरब अमीरात और भारत के बीच एक दीर्घकालिक रणनीतिक एवं आर्थिक साझेदारी है, और आज की हमारी चर्चाओं में ऊर्जा, प्रौद्योगिकी तथा अन्य प्राथमिकता वाले क्षेत्रों में सहयोग को नई गति देने के उपायों पर विचार-विमर्श हुआ। साथ मिलकर, हम अपने देशों की सतत प्रगति सुनिश्चित करने तथा क्षेत्र और विश्व में शांति एवं स्थिरता को बढ़ावा देने के लिए प्रतिबद्ध हैं।
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Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi@narendramodi·
اختُتمت زيارة قصيرة، إلا أنها كانت مثمرة للغاية، إلى دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة؛ حيث أجريت مباحثات مستفيضة مع أخي، صاحب السمو الشيخ محمد بن زايد آل نهيان، حول سبل تعميق الشراكة الاستراتيجية الشاملة بين الهند والإمارات. وإنني على ثقة بأن مخرجات هذه الزيارة ستزيد من رسوخ أواصر الصداقة بيننا، وستسهم في تحقيق النمو والازدهار. @MohamedBinZayed
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גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel
BREAKING: Following the controversy surrounding Prime Minister Netanyahu’s confirmed secret visit to the UAE, it can now be revealed that not only the PM, the Mossad chief and the Shin Bet director visited the Gulf state during the war — but also IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. @YehoshuaYosi
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Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan
Clarification Regarding Misleading Media Reports on Budget Process The Ministry of Finance strongly rejects the misleading and speculative impression created by the Express Tribune story titled “PM hands budget-making to Dar”, published on May 14, 2026. The story incorrectly portrays the constitution of a high-level review committee by the Prime Minister as a “handover” of the budget-making process from the Finance Division or as a “sidelining” of the Finance Minister. This interpretation is factually incorrect, misleading and does not reflect the actual mandate or functioning of the committee. The committee constituted by the Honourable Prime Minister has been tasked with reviewing and analysing certain tax policy proposals prepared by the Tax Policy Office in the context of the upcoming budget. Such consultative and inter-ministerial review mechanisms are neither unusual nor extraordinary, particularly when fiscal measures carry significant economic, political and public implications. As head of the government, the Honourable Prime Minister is fully within his constitutional and administrative authority to seek broader input from relevant cabinet members before finalisation of tax proposals that may impact businesses, inflation, investment climate and the wider economy. At no stage has the budget-making process been shifted away from the Ministry of Finance or the Finance Division. The preparation of the federal budget, including macroeconomic framework, fiscal strategy, expenditure planning, IMF engagement and overall budget coordination, continues to be undertaken by the Ministry of Finance under the leadership of the Finance Minister. The Finance Minister himself is a member of the committee constituted by the Prime Minister and continues to lead Pakistan’s engagement with the International Monetary Fund and other international financial institutions on all budgetary and macroeconomic matters. Similarly, the committee relating to enforcement measures has been formed only to refine and strengthen revenue administration and enforcement proposals in consultation with relevant stakeholders. Such coordination mechanisms are a normal feature of governance and fiscal management. The headline and framing of the report appear designed to create an impression of internal divergence within the government where none exists. The federal budget remains a collective constitutional and cabinet-driven exercise carried out under the leadership of the Prime Minister with the Ministry of Finance playing its central and mandated institutional role. The Ministry expects responsible sections of the media to avoid speculative interpretations and to report institutional processes with accuracy, context and due professional responsibility.
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גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel
פרסמנו במהדורה: המחאה החריפה שהועברה לישראל בעקבות פרסום הביקור של ראש הממשלה באמירויות. לא מעט מבוכה נרשמה באבו דאבי אחרי הפרסום אתמול על הביקור של ראש הממשלה באמירויות בסוף חודש מרץ, ובעיקר אחרי הודעת האישור של לשכת ראש הממשלה. אנחנו מפרסמים הערב שבעקבות הפרסום הזה - האמירתים העבירו היום מחאה חריפה לישראל, דרך השגריר מוחמד אל חאג'ה ישירות למטה לביטחון לאומי במשרד ראש הממשלה. גורם המעורה בפרטים אומר לנו "האמירתים כעסו מאוד, זו לא הפעם הראשונה שהדלפה כזו יוצאת מלשכת ראש הממשלה. בגלל זה נתניהו מודר ולא זכה לבקר שם במשך שנים." באמירויות מנסים לשמר פרופיל נמוך ומצניעים שיתוף פעולה עם ישראל למרות שבפועל ישנה עליית מדרגה משמעותית בחודשים האחרונים בשיתוף הפעולה הבטחוני בין המדינות - כולל פריסת מערכת כיפת ברזל והביקורים של ראש המוסד וראש השב"כ במדינה. בהמשך להכחשות, סוכנויות הידיעות האיראניות פירסמו היום מידע אוסינט על מה שהן טוענת שהוא מסלול הטיסה של ראש הממשלה ב26 במרץ. שר החוץ האיראני גם העביר אמש מסר ברור ומאיים - "עוינות כלפי העם האיראני היא הימור טיפשי, שיתוף פעולה עם ישראל בכך - בלתי נסלחת. מי שמשתף פעולה עם ישראל כדי לזרוע פילוג, ישא באחריות".
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גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel
i24NEWS Exclusive: UAE Delivers Strong Protest to Israel Following Report on Netanyahu’s Secret Visit to Abu Dhabi The publication yesterday of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s secret visit to Abu Dhabi has caused significant embarrassment to the UAE, especially after the visit was officially confirmed by the Prime Minister’s Office. i24NEWS can confirm that, in the wake of the report, the Emiratis conveyed a strong diplomatic protest to Israel. The message was delivered directly by UAE Ambassador Mohamed Al Khaja to officials at Israel’s National Security Council in the Prime Minister’s Office. A source familiar with the matter told i24NEWS: “The Emiratis were very angry. This is not the first time a sensitive leak has come out of the Prime Minister’s Office. That is precisely why Netanyahu has not visited the UAE for years.” The UAE maintains a low profile regarding its ties with Israel despite the fact that security cooperation between the two countries has escalated significantly in recent months — including the deployment of Israel’s Iron Dome system in the UAE and high-level visits by the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet.
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MoFA وزارة الخارجية
الإمارات تنفي ما يتم تداوله بشأن زيارة رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي أو استقبال وفد عسكري إسرائيلي
MoFA وزارة الخارجية tweet media
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Sami Hamdi سامي الهاشمي الحامدي
Abu Dhabi is furious that Netanyahu ruined their case for plausible deniability by openly parading that they directly took part in the war against Iran. Abu Dhabi will be even more frustrated that Netanyahu's disregard for the sensitivities of the UAE position exposes once more that no matter much they spend on Israel, back Israel, and hold hands with Tel Aviv, they are never treated as equals.
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Babak Vahdad
Babak Vahdad@BabakVahdad·
A former Netanyahu aide who says he accompanied the Israeli PM during the reportedly secret Abu Dhabi visit is now openly contradicting the UAE denial. - Zeev Agmon, as quoted in Iranian channels, claims Mohammed bin Zayed personally welcomed Netanyahu together with members of the ruling family, drove him in his own car from the aircraft to the palace, and hosted him “with the style of kings.” He also describes the visit as “completely confidential until today” and calls it a “historic achievement.” - At this point, the denial itself is becoming a bigger story than the visit. #Iran #IranWar
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Marc Owen Jones
Marc Owen Jones@marcowenjones·
It's being reported that MBZ "personally drove the Prime Minister [Netanyahu] in his personal car from the plane to the palace". This detail is going to be even more embarassing as the UAE seeks to deny the visit. ch10.co.il/en/news/106959…
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Dr Andreas Krieg
Dr Andreas Krieg@andreas_krieg·
A non-aggression pact with Iran is probably the smartest idea that came out of the Gulf in the past three months to manage the strategic security complex where everyone is a prisoner of geography Assertive narratives projecting strength aside, a balance of deterrence cannot be achieved with the new IRGC regime without diplomatic reassurances and increased interdependence between Iran and the GCC Saudi, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait would vote for it - Abu Dhabi can be convinced, Bahrain will follow ft.com/content/ab78e6…
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